Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 183.45; (P) 183.77; (R1) 184.13; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral and consolidation continues below 184.89. While deeper retreat cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained above 181.98 resistance turned support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 184.89 temporary top will resume larger up trend to 186.31 long term projection level.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress and should target 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, upside could be capped by 186.31 on first attempt. Still, outlook will stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 171.77) holds, even in case of deep pullback. Sustained break of 186.31 will pave the way to 100% projection at 205.81 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7520; (P) 1.7558; (R1) 1.7583; More...

EUR/AUD is staying inc consolidations above 1.7477 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, firm break of 1.7477 will resume the whole decline from 1.8160, and target 1.7245 support and below. Nevertheless, break of 1.7635 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound back to 1.7804. Overall, corrective pattern from 1.8554 is still extending.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7470) holds, price actions from 1.8554 could still be a correction to rise from 1.5963 only. However, sustained break of the EMA will argue that it's already correcting the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.6922.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9283; (P) 0.9296; (R1) 0.9315; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral as consolidations continues above 0.9271. Deeper decline is expected as long as 0.9326 resistance holds. Below 0.9271 will resume the fall from 0.9394 to retest 0.9178 low. However, break of 0.9326 will bring stronger rise back to retest 0.9394 resistance.

In the bigger picture, EUR/CHF has breached long term falling channel resistance as the rebound from 0.9278 extends. Considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, sustained trading above 55 W EMA (now at 0.9366) will indicate medium term bottoming at 0.9178, and suggests that it's already in larger scale rebound. Further break of 0.9452 resistance will bring stronger medium term rally towards 0.9928 resistance next. Nevertheless, rejection by 55 W EMA will retain bearishness for another fall through 0.9178 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1735; (P) 1.1757; (R1) 1.1772; More….

EUR/USD's retreat from 1.1807 extends lower today but stays above 1.1702 support. Intraday bias remains neutral and further rise is in favor. On the upside, break of 1.1807 will resume the rise from 1.1467 to retest 1.1917 high. However, firm break of 1.1702 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.1467 support, to extend the corrective pattern form 1.19717 with another falling leg.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1386) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will carry larger bullish implication. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.94; (P) 156.25; (R1) 156.76; More...

Range trading continues as consolidations continues below 157.88. Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral. With 154.33 support intact, outlook remains bullish. On the upside, firm break of 158.85 key structural resistance will be an important medium term bullish sign. Next target will be 161.94 high. However, decisive break of 154.38 will turn bias to the downside for deeper correction.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) could have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. Decisive break of 158.85 structural resistance will solidify this bullish case and target 161.94 for confirmation. On the downside, break of 150.90 resistance turned support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective range pattern with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3436; (P) 1.3483; (R1) 1.3517; More...

GBP/USD's retreat from 1.3533 extends lower today but stays above 1.3356 support. Intraday bias remains neutral and further rally remains in favor. Above 1.3533 will resume the rally from 1.3008 to retest 1.3787 high. However, firm break of 1.3356 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 1.3787 is merely a corrective move, and larger rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 1.3787 will target 1.4248 (2021 high) key structural resistance. This will remain the favored case as long as target 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3787 at 1.2474 holds, in case of another fall.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7888; (P) 0.7906; (R1) 0.7936; More….

USD/CHF's recovery from 0.7860 extends higher today but stays below 0.7986 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, below 0.7860 will target a retest on 0.7828 low. Decisive break there will confirm larger down trend resumption. However, break of 0.7986 will argue that corrective pattern from 0.7828 is still extending with another rising leg already in progress.

In the bigger picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low). Long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6683; (P) 0.6700; (R1) 0.6713; More...

AUD/USD dips mildly lower as consolidations from 0.6726 continues and intraday bias stays neutral. With 0.6592 support intact, further rally is expected. On the upside, sustained trading above 0.6713 fibonacci level will carry larger bullish implications. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 0.5913 to 0.6706 from 0.6420 at 0.6910.

In the bigger picture, the break of multi-year falling trend line resistance suggests that rise from 0.5913 is possibly reversing whole down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 will solidify this case, and bring further rally to 61.8% retracement at 0.7206. On the downside, however, firm break of 0.6420 support will suggest rejection by 0.6713 and retain medium term bearishness.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3682; (P) 1.3695; (R1) 1.3712; More...

USD/CAD's recovery from 1.3641 extends slightly higher today, but stays well below 1.3804 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral and further decline is expected. On the downside, break of 1.3641 will resume the fall from 1.4139 to retest 1.3538 low. Firm break there will extend the whole decline from 1.4791 to 1.3365 projection level.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.4791 is developing into a deeper, larger scale correction. In the less bearish case, it's just correcting the rise from 1.2005 (2021 low). But even so, break of 1.3538 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.4791 to 1.3538 from 1.4139 at 1.3365. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.4139 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

Markets remain stuck in a year-end lull on the final trading day of the year, with liquidity thin and participation limited. Price action across asset classes reflects consolidation rather than conviction, as investors opt to close the year defensively rather than chase late moves.

Stronger-than-expected China PMI data failed to lift sentiment. While the readings suggested momentum was building toward year-end, markets largely looked past the improvement, treating it as insufficient to alter the broader outlook. Skepticism remains rooted in structural concerns. Analysts continue to flag China’s persistent investment slump, excess capacity, and weak domestic consumption as constraints that are likely to linger well into 2026, capping the scope for a durable rebound.

In FX markets, Dollar is trading modestly firmer after the release of December FOMC minutes. Even so, the move appears corrective in nature. Selling interest in Dollar is more likely to re-emerge once markets return from the New Year holidays. For now, gains look more like short-covering than a shift in underlying sentiment.

Minutes from the December meeting of the Fed confirmed the depth of the internal divide that led to a 25bp cut decided by a three-way vote. Policymakers broadly agreed that further easing could be appropriate if inflation continues to cool. At the same time, the minutes revealed clear hesitation about how aggressively policy should be adjusted. Several participants argued that rates may need to remain unchanged for some time after the December cut, with some describing the easing decision as "finely balanced".

Those favoring a hold expressed concern that progress toward the 2% inflation objective may have "stalled" in 2025, emphasizing the need for greater confidence before endorsing further cuts. That caution helped keep expectations anchored. Market pricing was little changed in response. A January hold remains priced above 80%, while odds of a March cut continue to hover around 50%.

In FX performance, Yen leads the week, followed by Dollar and Loonie. Kiwi lags ahead of Swiss Franc and Aussie. Euro and Sterling sit in the middle.

Happy New Year to our readers, Action Insight will be back on Monday, January 5, 2026. 

China PMIs return to expansion as year-end demand lifts activity

China’s official PMIs delivered a clear upside surprise in December, signaling a return to expansion for the first time since March. PMI Manufacturing rose from 49.2 to 50.1, beating expectations of 49.4, while PMI Non-Manufacturing climbed from 49.5 to 50.2, also above forecast. The improvement was broad enough to lift PMI Composite from 49.7 to 50.7, pointing to renewed momentum across both goods and services activity.

According to National Bureau of Statistics of China, the rebound marks a notable stabilization heading into year-end. Large enterprises were the primary driver of the pickup, as PMI jumped to 50.8, up 1.5 points from November, reflecting stronger capacity utilization and firmer order flows. In contrast, activity among smaller firms remained under pressure, with medium-sized enterprises edging up to 49.8 and small firms slipping further to 48.6.

NBS chief statistician Huo Lihui said new orders rose meaningfully in December, describing a significant expansion in both production and demand. He also pointed to improving confidence tied to pre-holiday stockpiling ahead of the Lunar New Year in February, particularly in agriculture, food processing, and beverage sectors.

Private-sector data echoed the official improvement. RatingDog PMI Manufacturing rose from 49.9 to 50.1, also beating expectations. RatingDog founder Yao Yu said new orders have now grown for seven consecutive months, supported by domestic product launches and business expansion.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3682; (P) 1.3695; (R1) 1.3712; More...

USD/CAD's recovery from 1.3641 extends slightly higher today, but stays well below 1.3804 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral and further decline is expected. On the downside, break of 1.3641 will resume the fall from 1.4139 to retest 1.3538 low. Firm break there will extend the whole decline from 1.4791 to 1.3365 projection level.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.4791 is developing into a deeper, larger scale correction. In the less bearish case, it's just correcting the rise from 1.2005 (2021 low). But even so, break of 1.3538 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.4791 to 1.3538 from 1.4139 at 1.3365. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.4139 resistance holds, in case of rebound.