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• Oil breaks higher during overnight trading as pressure mounts ahead of the weekend.
• WTI attempts a retest of its January highs with tensions not easing.
• Exploring an in-depth Technical Analysis of the commodity.

Betting on geopolitical events is an odd task in Markets.

Without discussing the moral aspect (traders have to make money, or at least try to, no matter what), trading live events come with significant potential risk.

Participants build up anxiety, heavy positioning, and costly conviction ahead of uncertain outcomes – this is the War Risk Premium, and it is not a cheap one.

Sometimes it pays, as was observed during last Summer with the 12-Day War, which took WTI to $78.43 highs in a matter of a week.

However, many times, similarly to what happened already on a few occasions in the current rise, Oil may just shoot higher before giving up in exhaustion as nothing official happens.

Will prices tumble again? Who knows.

Tensions really are rising, and the military armada amassed in the Middle East is already higher than the one seen in 2003 before the Iraq War, so there is a basis for fear. The Trump Admin also sounded a bit more aggressive in their speeches yesterday. Let's see how it plays out.

Being positioned is a good way to gain exposure to potential volatility; however, it remains very tricky. A good entry point is essential, and the most important thing is to make sure you respect your rules and risk to trade for longer.

Odds for a US strike in Iran by end March – Source: Polymarket. February 19, 2026

Polymarket-based odds for a strike before February 28 remain below 30%. Given the amount of insider trading on this platform, the attack may still have time before it happens.

Odds for an end-March strike rose accordingly on Tuesday, right after Oil tumbled to $62, and are currently holding around 60%.

WTI is trading as if something were to happen this weekend. So overall, that is a lot of speculation, and the timing is tricky to predict.

In the meantime, let's dive into a multi-timeframe analysis of WTI (US) Oil to determine levels of interest and put the odds in the trader's favor to capitalize on the issue.

US Oil Multi-Timeframe Analysis

WTI Daily Chart

WTI Oil Daily Chart – February 19, 2026. Source: TradingView

WTI just retested its January 29 highs, slightly breaking above, but as long as no candle closes above, at least on the 1H timeframe, it is difficult to assume that a breakout is unrolling.

Overall, the Daily picture helps to assess where the action currently stands.

Oil remains strongly above its 200-Day Moving Average, which acts as key barometer for the risk-premium and should stay above there (+/- $0.50) for the time being.

• A progressive build up could test the $67.50 to $68 resistance, the next main stop but that would happen only if anxiety continues to remain high while nothing happens.
• If an offensive occurs, expect $70 to break swiftly and head between $75 to $80.
• With no news this weekend, the action could easily retest the 200-Day MA ($62.83) which is the most optimal point of entry to capture the risk-premium.
  • Any daily close below $61 means that traders are unrolling their positions.

WTI 4H Chart and Technical Levels

WTI Oil 4H Chart – February 19, 2026. Source: TradingView

The immediate action looks very tricky!

RSI is at overbought levels, but the profit-taking which just occurred quickly got faded higher – the 4H Candle is forming a bullish Hammer (closing in 2h). Hence, positioning looks to be amassing once again.

We will see further details on the 1H timeframe but it seems that if nothing happens, a small retracement looks plausible and could offer decent pullback entries.

• The Bullish Channel formation points to $69 in the event of progressive rallies.

WTI Technical Levels

Levels to place on your WTI charts:

Resistance Levels

• $66.67 session Highs
• Past Week Resistance $65.50 to $66.50
• September 2025 Major resistance $67.50 to $68
• Psychological Resistance $70
• $78.43 12-Day War highs

Support Levels

• 1H 50 and 200-Period MA $64.00
• $65 psychological level micro-support
• Range Key Pivot/Support $62.30 to $63.40 (Iran Premium lows and 200-Day MA)
• 4H 200-period MA $61.65
• May Range lows support $59 to $60.5 Major support
• Iran Support area $58.50 to $59

1H Chart

WTI Oil 1H Chart – February 16, 2026. Source: TradingView

Oil is now hanging tight at its end-January Spike levels, but the tricky part is the overbought RSI levels which could easily point to a correction.

Aggressive pullback entries could take place at 2 levels:

• The $65 psychological level would be very aggressive – Bulls are not letting this go and points to higher odds of an immediate intervention (over the weekend)
• $64 is the less-aggressive but still very strong corrective level that would allow the most anxious traders to be part of the action
• If nothing happens, look for a retest of the key pivot zone $62.00 to $63.40

Safe Trades and a successful week!

USDCHF: ⬆️ Buy

• USDCHF reversed from support area
• Likely to rise to resistance level 0.7800

USDCHF currency pair recently reversed from the support area between the key support level 0.7600 (which stopped earlier impulse wave (1) in December) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.

The upward reversal from this support area started the active short-term corrective wave 2.

USDCHF currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 0.7800 (former multi-month support from September and the top of the earlier correction (2)).

Brent Crude oil: ⬆️ Buy

• Brent Crude oil broke the resistance area
• Likely to rise to resistance level 72.75

Brent Crude oil recently broke the resistance area between the round resistance level 70.00 (which has been reversing the price from September) and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from June.

The breakout of this resistance area accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3 – which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (C) from December.

Brent Crude oil can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 72.75 (former monthly high from July).

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said today that the Fedis close to achieving its dual mandate of stable prices and full employment, though it has not fully reached either objective. He acknowledged that progress has been made on both inflation and labor market stability, but emphasized that the job is not yet complete.

On monetary policy, Kashkari suggested the current stance is near neutral. “My guess is we’re pretty close to neutral,” he said, indicating that policy may no longer be meaningfully restrictive. That framing reinforces the view that the Fed is entering a more balanced phase, where future moves will depend heavily on incoming data rather than a preset easing path.

Kashkari also expressed skepticism about stablecoins and broader crypto narratives. He criticized what he described as “buzzword salad” often used to promote digital assets, urging observers not to accept vague or unsubstantiated claims about their benefits. His comments underscore ongoing caution within parts of the Fed regarding financial innovation and regulatory oversight.

Markets

Brent crude prices extend yesterday’s rally with another $2/b move, this time from $70/b to $72/b and confirming a technical break above the $70/b resistance zone. The oil price trades at its highest level since last summer when they spiked towards $80/b in the wake of Operation Midnight Hammer, the US’s strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. Markets are again on high alert over the Iranian situation. Talks in Geneva earlier this week didn’t really result in hoped-for progress, but a two-week deadline instead. The UN’s nuclear watchdog today warned that the US military build-up in the region means that Iran’s window to reach a diplomatic agreement over its atomic activities is at risk of closing. The US gathered the most air power in the Mideast since the 2003 Iraq invasion, according to flight-tracking data and confirmed by a US official to the WSJ. Markets become more aware of the looming threat. Core bonds fail to really play a safe haven role with higher energy prices interfering. Risk sentiment on stock markets sours with European indices losing around 1%. That’s only one day after the EuroStoxx50 set a new all-time high. US stock markets open 0.25% lower. The greenback shines on FX markets for a second straight session. The US currency plays it safe haven role with near term Fed rate cut bets (March) reduced to nearly 0% following last week’s eco data. The trade-weighted dollar (DXY) tests first resistance at 97.99 (from a start at 97.73). EUR/USD (1.1750) is currently already giving away similar support at 1.1761. The same goes for cable which changes hands at 1.3440, below 1.3509 support. EUR/GBP is about to reach a new YtD top north of 0.8750. Even the Japanese yen fails to keep track with the mighty USD, finding its way north of 155, but remains well below first support at 157.76.

US December trade balance data offered a final piece of tomorrow’s US Q4 GDP puzzle. Exports of goods dropped by more than 3%, but this decline can be explained by non‑monetary gold exports. Imports grew strongly again (+3.6% M/M), this time less influenced by gold trade. Our KBC nowcast now predicts 2.74% Q/Qa growth for Q4 (vs +3% consensus); however, if we filter out the gold effects, only 1.6% Q/Qa would remain. Non‑residential investments remain a strong component of our in-house nowcast on the back of AI‑related investment. Weaker December retail sales pushed personal consumption slightly down, but we still expect annualized Q/Q-growth of 2.82% for this component. A first look at Q1 is weaker, based on the data already available, with growth at 1.55%. However, filtering out the gold effects, we would have 1.89% for Q1.

News & Views

Belgian consumer confidence, after reaching its highest point since 2021 in January, saw a fresh decline in February to 1 from 4, the National Bank of Belgium’s monthly survey showed. The composite indicator remains well above the long-term average though. Concerns about year-ahead unemployment in particular have risen sharply. We should add that this worsening comes after consumers in January were never more optimistic on the labour market than at any other point in time in the series’ 40-year history. Households are also more pessimistic about their capacity to save but simultaneously turned more positive on the general economic situation.

A set of below-consensus Polish January economic data reinforce bets for a rate cut by the central bank (NBP) as soon as March. FRA pricing suggests that after lowering the policy rate to 3.75% next month, more cuts may follow further down the line to perhaps as low as 3.25% (50-50% chance) by 2025H2. The zloty weakens slightly to EUR/PLN 4.22 to nevertheless remain near the strongest levels of the past decade. Gross wages last month tumbled 6.1% m/m to be up the same percentage in a yearly perspective, which was the slowest pace in five years. Employment also unexpectedly dropped 0.2% m/m, extending the trend seen in all of 2025 (barring the one-off 0.1% uptick in November). The amount of people having a job is now 0.8% lower than in January of last year. Industrial sales missed expectations big time, dropping 6% m/m (-3% expected) and -1.5% annually, with unusually cold weather said to have had a serious negative impact. Finally, producer prices slipped a monthly 0.3% and push the yearly print to a one-year low of -2.6%.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.64; (P) 154.25; (R1) 155.44; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Further rally should be seen to 157.65 resistance first. Break there will target a retest on 159.44 high. On the downside, below 154.33 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. Overall, with 38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 159.44 at 151.96 intact rise from 139.87 is expected to resume through 159.44 at a later stage.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 151.77) holds. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that the pattern from 161.94 is extending with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7708; (P) 0.7721; (R1) 0.7744; More….

USD/CHF's outlook is unchanged and intraday bias remains neutral. Consolidations from 0.7603 is extending and stronger rebound could be seen. But upside should be limited by 55 D EMA (now at 0.7849) to complete the pattern. On the downside, break of 0.7603 will resume larger down trend, and target 0.7382 projection level next. However, sustained break of 55 D EMA will indicate that a larger scale corrective bounce in underway and target 0.8039 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8123 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3463; (P) 1.3522; (R1) 1.3554; More...

GBP/USD's fall from 1.3867 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside. Current development suggests that the decline is at least correcting the uptrend from 1.2099. Break of 1.3342 support will solidify this case, and target 161.8% projection of 1.3867 to 1.3507 from 1.3711 at 1.3129. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.3711 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) still in progress and should target 1.4284 key resistance (2021 high). Decisive break there will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.3008 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1756; (P) 1.1808; (R1) 1.1833; More….

EUR/USD's fall from 1.2081 resumed by breaking 11764 support and intraday bias is back on the downside. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.1763) will raise the chance of reversal on rejection by 1.2, and target 1.1576 support for confirmation. For now, risk will stay mildly on the downside as long as 1.1928 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1485) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. Next medium term target will be 138.2% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.2581. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.