Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3721; (P) 1.3763; (R1) 1.3791; More...

USD/CAD's decline is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside. Deeper fall should be seen to retest 1.3538 low. Firm break there will extend the whole decline from 1.4791 to 1.3365 projection level. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.3804 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.4791 is developing into a deeper, larger scale correction. In the less bearish case, it's just correcting the rise from 1.2005 (2021 low). But even so, break of 1.3538 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.4791 to 1.3538 from 1.4139 at 1.3365. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.4139 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6670; (P) 0.6686; (R1) 0.6719; More...

AUD/USD's rally continues today and intraday bias stays on the upside. Sustained trading above 0.6707/13 will carry larger bullish implications. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 0.5913 to 0.6706 from 0.6420 at 0.6910. On the downside, below 0.6675 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.6592 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the break of multi-year falling trend line resistance suggests that rise from 0.5913 is possibly reversing whole down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 will solidify this case, and bring further rally to 61.8% retracement at 0.7206. On the downside, however, firm break of 0.6420 support will suggest rejection by 0.6713 and retain medium term bearishness.

Dollar found a modest bid early in the U.S. session after weekly jobless claims came in better than expected, offering a brief reminder that U.S. labor market conditions remain relatively resilient. The reaction, however, was restrained, and the greenback failed to generate meaningful follow-through. That muted response highlights the broader backdrop. Dollar remains the weakest performer of the week so far, and the rebound lacks conviction as markets slide deeper into holiday mode. With participation thinning sharply, price action is increasingly shaped by flows rather than fresh macro reassessment.

There is little in the way of new fundamental catalysts. In several markets, the long holiday weekend has effectively already begun, draining liquidity further. While low activity does not always translate into low volatility, directional conviction is clearly lacking. This quiet tone is likely to persist into next week as well. Many traders appear content to wait for the first full trading week of January before re-engaging, when heavyweight U.S. data such as non-farm payrolls return to the calendar and provide clearer signals.

Within FX, Aussie and Kiwi continue to vie for the top spot this week. Both currencies are being supported by early, tentative speculation that policy rates could eventually rise again in 2026, even if that discussion remains distant and conditional.

For the RBA, the debate centers on inflation risks. Price pressures have shown signs of re-acceleration, while the labor market remains somewhat tight, keeping the door ajar for future tightening even if no move is imminent.

For the RBNZ, the story is slightly different. Having eased much more aggressively through 2025, policymakers arguably have more scope to step back, creating room for markets to price a less dovish path down the line.

Technically, both AUD/USD and NZD/USD are pressing into key resistance zones. A decisive break would solidify the case for bullish trend reversal and likely extend gains into Q1.

Elsewhere, Yen ranks as the third-strongest currency, driven more by short covering and intervention caution than genuine trend change. Dollar trails at the bottom, followed by Euro and Loonie, with Sterling and Swiss Franc holding the middle ground.

Merry Christmas to our readers. We'll be back on Monday, December 29.

US initial jobless claims fall to 214k vs exp 225k

US initial jobless claims fell -10k to 214k in the week ending December 20, below expectation of 225k. Four-week moving average of initial claims fell -750 to 217.5k. Continuing claims rose 38k to 1923k in the week ending December 13. Four-week moving average of continuing claims fell -5k to 1894k.

NZD/USD pops on early RBNZ hike speculations, 0.60 back on radar

NZD/USD is currently the standout performer of the week, rising around 1.5% and outperforming most major peers. The pair is extending its rebound from the November low, with momentum indicators pointing to an upside re-acceleration phase rather than a fading corrective bounce. Continued gains would reinforce the case that NZD/USD is already reversing the broader downtrend from the July high. Sustained push higher would open the path toward 0.60 handle.

Fundamental developments have turned more supportive in recent weeks. The most important shift came from the RBNZ, which signaled that the 25bp rate cut delivered in November was likely the final move of the easing cycle. That guidance marked a clear change in tone after months of downside growth concerns.

Subsequent data have largely validated the RBNZ’s stance. GDP rebounded a strong 1.1% qoq in Q3, more than offsetting the surprise -0.9% qoq contraction seen in Q2. Business sentiment has also surged, with ANZ Business Confidence jumping to its highest level in three decades in December.

These developments have fueled early speculation that the RBNZ could even consider rate hikes toward the end of 2026 if the recovery gains traction. However, that narrative remains premature and highly conditional on sustained improvement across the economy.

New RBNZ Governor Anna Breman has already pushed back firmly against talk of tightening, emphasizing that policy is not on a preset path. Indeed, pockets of weakness remain. The services sector continues to lag, with the BNZ Services index stuck at 46.9 in November.

Technically, NZD/USD's rise from 0.5580 resumed by breaking through 0.5830 support this week. The strong support from 55 D EMA is a clear near term bullish sign. Immediate focus is now on medium term falling trend line resistance (now at 0.5864). Sustained break there will reinforce the case that whole fall from 0.6119 has completed as a three-wave correction at 0.5580.

Further break of 61.8% projection of 0.5580 to 0.5830 from 0.5735 at 0.5890 would prompt upside acceleration to 0.6006 cluster resistance (100% projection at 0.5895). In any case, near term outlook will now stay bullish as long as 0.5735 support holds.

USD/CNH falls near 7 handle on Dollar weakness not Yuan strength, break seen as fragile

Offshore Chinese Yuan jumped sharply against Dollar in thin pre-holiday trading this week, driving USD/CNH to its lowest level in more than a year. But broader FX behavior points to Dollar weakness as the primary driver. Cross-rate performance supports that view. EUR/CNH has shown mostly sideways movement, suggesting Yuan strength is not uniform across major currencies. That casts doubt on the durability of any clean break below the 7 level in USD/CNH once liquidity improves.

Policy signals have nonetheless helped support sentiment. China’s decision to keep benchmark loan prime rates unchanged for a seventh straight month indicates that authorities see no immediate need for further monetary easing. The People's Bank of China’s continued use of “cross-cyclical” policy tools adds to that message. By prioritizing smoothing over stimulus, and with bank margins already at record lows, policymakers appear content to wait until next year before considering more forceful support.

Seasonal factors are adding to Yuan demand. Year-end exporter conversions of foreign currency receipts into Yuan have increased spot demand. China’s strong bilateral trade surplus with the U.S., which exceeded USD 1 trillion in the first eleven months of the year, continues to provide an underlying flow-based cushion.

Still, structural limits remain clear. A stronger Yuan would weigh directly on exporters and growth by raising foreign-currency prices, increasing pressure on firms already dealing with soft demand. That vulnerability was highlight by the sharp deterioration in a private manufacturing activity index last month.

Geopolitical and trade considerations would further cap upside. With the U.S.–China tariff truce set to expire next year, renewed trade tension would likely force Chinese companies to discount more aggressively, making sustained Yuan appreciation counterproductive.

Technically, USD/CNH would be entering a key long term support zone between 6.9709 (2024 low) and 38.2% retracement of 6.3057 (2022 low) to 7.4287 (2025 high) at 6.9997. Strong support would be seen inside this zone to contain downside. On the upside, firm break of 7.0843 support turned resistance will confirm short term bottoming, and that the first leg of the pattern from 7.4287 has likely completed.

EUR/CNH gyrated higher after hitting 8.1660 in late November. Momentum waned as EUR/CNH struggled to clear 55 D EMA cleanly. Yet, further rise will remain in favor as long as 8.2041 support holds. Sustained trading above the 55 D EMA will pave the way to medium term falling trend line resistance.

However, break of 0.82041 support will argue that the recovery has completed and bring deeper fall through 0.81660 to resume the whole correction from 8.4648 (2025 high). Firm break of 8.1660 in EUR/CNH, however, together with decisive break of 6.9709 in USD/CNH, however, will be a strong sign of genuine underlying strength in Yuan.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6670; (P) 0.6686; (R1) 0.6719; More...

AUD/USD's rally continues today and intraday bias stays on the upside. Sustained trading above 0.6707/13 will carry larger bullish implications. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 0.5913 to 0.6706 from 0.6420 at 0.6910. On the downside, below 0.6675 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But For now, outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.6592 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the break of multi-year falling trend line resistance suggests that rise from 0.5913 is possibly reversing whole down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 will solidify this case, and bring further rally to 61.8% retracement at 0.7206. On the downside, however, firm break of 0.6420 support will suggest rejection by 0.6713 and retain medium term bearishness.

US initial jobless claims fell -10k to 214k in the week ending December 20, below expectation of 225k. Four-week moving average of initial claims fell -750 to 217.5k.

Continuing claims rose 38k to 1923k in the week ending December 13. Four-week moving average of continuing claims fell -5k to 1894k.

Full US jobless claims release here.

NZD/USD is currently the standout performer of the week, rising around 1.5% and outperforming most major peers. The pair is extending its rebound from the November low, with momentum indicators pointing to an upside re-acceleration phase rather than a fading corrective bounce. Continued gains would reinforce the case that NZD/USD is already reversing the broader downtrend from the July high. Sustained push higher would open the path toward 0.60 handle.

Fundamental developments have turned more supportive in recent weeks. The most important shift came from the RBNZ, which signaled that the 25bp rate cut delivered in November was likely the final move of the easing cycle. That guidance marked a clear change in tone after months of downside growth concerns.

Subsequent data have largely validated the RBNZ’s stance. GDP rebounded a strong 1.1% qoq in Q3, more than offsetting the surprise -0.9% qoq contraction seen in Q2. Business sentiment has also surged, with ANZ Business Confidence jumping to its highest level in three decades in December.

These developments have fueled early speculation that the RBNZ could even consider rate hikes toward the end of 2026 if the recovery gains traction. However, that narrative remains premature and highly conditional on sustained improvement across the economy.

New RBNZ Governor Anna Breman has already pushed back firmly against talk of tightening, emphasizing that policy is not on a preset path. Indeed, pockets of weakness remain. The services sector continues to lag, with the BNZ Services index stuck at 46.9 in November.

Technically, NZD/USD's rise from 0.5580 resumed by breaking through 0.5830 support this week. The strong support from 55 D EMA is a clear near term bullish sign. Immediate focus is now on medium term falling trend line resistance (now at 0.5864). Sustained break there will reinforce the case that whole fall from 0.6119 has completed as a three-wave correction at 0.5580.

Further break of 61.8% projection of 0.5580 to 0.5830 from 0.5735 at 0.5890 would prompt upside acceleration to 0.6006 cluster resistance (100% projection at 0.5895). In any case, near term outlook will now stay bullish as long as 0.5735 support holds.

Offshore Chinese Yuan jumped sharply against Dollar in thin pre-holiday trading this week, driving USD/CNH to its lowest level in more than a year. But broader FX behavior points to Dollar weakness as the primary driver. Cross-rate performance supports that view. EUR/CNH has shown mostly sideways movement, suggesting Yuan strength is not uniform across major currencies. That casts doubt on the durability of any clean break below the 7 level in USD/CNH once liquidity improves.

Policy signals have nonetheless helped support sentiment. China’s decision to keep benchmark loan prime rates unchanged for a seventh straight month indicates that authorities see no immediate need for further monetary easing. The People's Bank of China’s continued use of “cross-cyclical” policy tools adds to that message. By prioritizing smoothing over stimulus, and with bank margins already at record lows, policymakers appear content to wait until next year before considering more forceful support.

Seasonal factors are adding to Yuan demand. Year-end exporter conversions of foreign currency receipts into Yuan have increased spot demand. China’s strong bilateral trade surplus with the U.S., which exceeded USD 1 trillion in the first eleven months of the year, continues to provide an underlying flow-based cushion.

Still, structural limits remain clear. A stronger Yuan would weigh directly on exporters and growth by raising foreign-currency prices, increasing pressure on firms already dealing with soft demand. That vulnerability was highlight by the sharp deterioration in a private manufacturing activity index last month.

Geopolitical and trade considerations would further cap upside. With the U.S.–China tariff truce set to expire next year, renewed trade tension would likely force Chinese companies to discount more aggressively, making sustained Yuan appreciation counterproductive.

Technically, USD/CNH would be entering a key long term support zone between 6.9709 (2024 low) and 38.2% retracement of 6.3057 (2022 low) to 7.4287 (2025 high) at 6.9997. Strong support would be seen inside this zone to contain downside. On the upside, firm break of 7.0843 support turned resistance will confirm short term bottoming, and that the first leg of the pattern from 7.4287 has likely completed.

EUR/CNH gyrated higher after hitting 8.1660 in late November. Momentum waned as EUR/CNH struggled to clear 55 D EMA cleanly. Yet, further rise will remain in favor as long as 8.2041 support holds. Sustained trading above the 55 D EMA will pave the way to medium term falling trend line resistance.

However, break of 0.82041 support will argue that the recovery has completed and bring deeper fall through 0.81660 to resume the whole correction from 8.4648 (2025 high). Firm break of 8.1660 in EUR/CNH, however, together with decisive break of 6.9709 in USD/CNH, however, will be a strong sign of genuine underlying strength in Yuan.

The Bank of Japan’s decision to raise its policy rate to 0.75% (from 0.50%), while in line with market forecasts, marks a clear step towards monetary tightening and has pushed yields higher on Japanese assets. For the USD/JPY pair, this typically exerts downward pressure – supporting the yen’s appreciation and weighing on the exchange rate.

The underlying mechanism is straightforward: a higher interest rate in Japan boosts the relative appeal of yen-denominated investments and narrows the yield differential with the US. This, in turn, reduces the incentive for the classic carry trade – borrowing in low-yielding yen to purchase higher-yielding assets abroad – thereby increasing structural demand for the yen.

As the decision was widely anticipated, the immediate market reaction may be relatively contained. However, beyond the rate itself, the tone of the BoJ’s forward guidance will be critical. Should the central bank signal that further hikes are on the table, sustained pressure on USD/JPY is likely. Conversely, an emphasis on caution and the gradual pace of policy normalisation could limit the move to a more short-term correction.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, the market reached a local bullish target at 157.72 before correcting to 155.55. We expect this corrective phase to conclude around the 155.50 level, with the potential for a consolidation range to form thereafter. A break below this range would open the path towards 155.12, while an upward exit could see a renewed advance towards 157.92.

This outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is currently above zero but pointing firmly lower, suggesting a loss of bullish momentum in the near term.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair is trading within a consolidation range around 156.06. A downside break would target a decline towards 155.12, whereas an upside resolution could initiate a move towards 157.92.

This view is further validated by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is below 50 and trending downward towards the 20 level, indicating continued near-term selling pressure.

Conclusion

The BoJ’s rate hike has shifted the fundamental backdrop towards yen strength, though the extent of the move will hinge on the central bank’s future signalling. Technically, USD/JPY is entering a critical consolidation phase, with a break below 155.50 likely to accelerate the correction, while a hold above could see the pair attempt to retest recent highs.

As shown on today’s USD/CHF chart, the US dollar has dropped against the Swiss franc to its lowest level in three months.

In December, the pair has declined by around 1.9%. This move reflects not only US dollar weakness—driven by expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026—but also the strength of the franc, whose appeal has been reinforced by recent news:

→ In December, the Swiss National Bank left its key interest rate unchanged at zero and commented that the reduction in US tariffs on Swiss goods has improved Switzerland’s economic outlook.

→ Rising geopolitical tensions, including developments near the Venezuelan coast.

Technical Analysis of USD/CHF

During November and December, price fluctuations formed a descending channel, with central bank decisions acting as the main catalyst for the decline.

Today’s setup is notable in that:

→ the price is trading close to the lower boundary of the channel;

→ the RSI indicator is showing a bullish divergence.

It is worth noting that the 0.7880 level acted as support in October and November. The current dip may therefore turn out to be a bear trap, referred to in Smart Money Concepts terminology as a liquidity grab.

From this perspective, USD/CHF could stage a corrective rebound towards the channel’s median, in which case a retest of former support around 0.7925 cannot be ruled out.

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On 12 December, we noted that silver had climbed above $60. It took the market less than two weeks to advance further and clear the next psychological milestone at $70.

Today, XAG/USD reached $72, extending the sharp rally that began in the autumn. Gold prices have also been showing strong momentum.

The surge in precious metals has been driven by:

→ robust ETF buying from retail investors;

→ rising geopolitical tensions (media reports suggest the US has deployed additional military forces close to Venezuela);

→ reduced liquidity during the holiday period. Thin trading conditions often leave markets exposed to abrupt price swings.

Technical Analysis of XAG/USD

When reviewing the XAG/USD chart two weeks ago, we:

→ identified an ascending channel (marked in blue);

→ outlined the possibility of a pullback from the channel’s upper boundary.

Since then (as indicated by the arrows):

→ the price retreated twice from the upper boundary on 12 and 16 December;

→ on 17 December it broke above the channel;

→ on 19 December the former resistance acted as support, allowing buyers to consolidate above the blue ascending channel.

The current move is characterised by a steep upward trajectory (shown in orange), with the breakout above the $70 psychological level appearing decisive.

With silver trading this morning close to the upper edge of the orange channel and the RSI in overbought territory, the market looks vulnerable to a corrective pullback. Indeed, long holders may be tempted to lock in profits after a gain of nearly 30% since the start of the month.

That said, the unique dynamics of holiday trading could still fuel an attempt to push towards the $80 level.

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EUR/USD started a fresh increase above 1.1750 and 1.1780. USD/CHF declined further and is now struggling below 0.7900.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today

• The Euro started a decent increase from 1.1700 against the US Dollar.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.1780 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/CHF declined below the 0.7920 and 0.7900 support levels.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.7905 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from the 1.1700 zone. The Euro cleared the 1.1750 barrier to move into a bullish zone against the US Dollar.

The bulls pushed the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.1780. Finally, the pair tested 1.1800. A high was formed near 1.1808 and the pair is now consolidating gains above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the 1.1703 swing low to the 1.1808 high.

An Immediate bid zone on the downside is near a connecting bullish trend line at 1.1780. The next area of interest could be near the 50-hour simple moving average at 1.1765.

A downside break below 1.1765 might send the pair toward the 76.4% Fib retracement at 1.1730. Any more losses might send the pair into a bearish zone toward 1.1700.

If there is a fresh increase, an immediate hurdle on the EUR/USD chart is 1.1810. The first major pivot level for the bulls could be 1.1850. An upside break above 1.1850 might send the pair to 1.1920. The next selling zone could be 1.1950. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward 1.2000.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of USD/CHF at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from well above 0.7950. The US Dollar dropped below 0.7900 to move into a negative zone against the Swiss Franc.

The bears pushed the pair below the 50-hour simple moving average and 0.7880. Finally, the bulls appeared near 0.7860. A low was formed near 0.7861, and the pair is now consolidating losses below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.7987 swing high to the 0.7861 low.

On the upside, the pair could face bears near 0.7890. The first major resistance sits near the 50-hour simple moving average at 0.7905. The main barrier for an upside break could be near a bearish trend line at 0.7925 and the 50% Fib retracement.

A daily close above 0.7925 could start a fresh increase. In the stated case, the pair could rise toward 0.7955. The next stop for the bulls might be 0.7985.

On the downside, immediate support on the USD/CHF chart is 0.7860. The first major breakdown zone could be 0.7840. A close below 0.7840 might send the pair to 0.7800. Any more losses may possibly open the doors for a move toward 0.7760 in the coming days.

Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips. Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading forex with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.