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The year is almost over, traders are partly — already — on vacation. Investors have largely reshuffled their portfolios; many have closed positions to call it a day. Trading volumes are thin — around 30–35% below the past month’s average — yet… yet the year keeps on giving.

Yesterday, the US announced a set of GDP data that blew everybody’s mind. The US economy grew 4.3% in Q3 vs 3.3% pencilled in by analysts.

Read that again: in dirt and dust, in the middle of trade tensions, tariffs, geopolitical chaos, job losses and uncertainty, the US economy managed to grow 4.3%. That’s the fastest pace in two years, driven by AI investment but also by strong corporate profits — up 4.4% QoQ — and very strong consumer spending, with sales up 4.6% QoQ.

Naturally, price pressures also flared up, with PCE prices rising to 2.8% on the quarter from 2.1% previously.

The good news is that expectations were for price pressures to rise slightly more — to 2.9% — keeping the Federal Reserve (Fed) hawks at bay. Meanwhile, weaker industrial production and softer consumer confidence helped balance out the euphoric growth and uncomfortably high inflation figures.

Still, the US 2-year yield — the best barometer of Fed expectations — jumped past 3.50% after the strong GDP and PCE data. The probability of a January Fed cut fell to 15% (from 20% before the figures), while Fed funds futures price a June rate cut at around 80%.

Did equity investors care? Yes — but selectively. Major US equity indices rallied on the strength of earnings and consumer spending, but small caps underperformed as rate cuts were pushed further out. The S&P 500 equal-weight index also fell, meaning the post-GDP rally was carried by technology stocks rather than a broader rotation into non-tech sectors. In other words, index gains masked a step back from the optimistic “rotation” narrative, and rising prices came with rising reversal risk.

The US dollar, meanwhile, eased despite more hawkish Fed pricing — suggesting downside pressure on the dollar is strong enough that even a 4.3% GDP print can’t fully revive the bulls.

The softer dollar pushed gold, silver and copper to fresh all-time highs once again. Gold traded above $4’500.

We can say it: it’s been a golden year. Gold has renewed record highs more than 50 times this year and rose more than 70%, while silver’s gains have been even more impressive. The grey metal is up around 150% since January, driven by the so-called debasement trade — the idea that fiat currencies lose purchasing power over time due to heavy debt, persistent deficits, loose monetary policy and financial repression (rates below inflation). Add rising demand for silver and copper to limited supply, and the performance of these metals becomes easier to explain.

The question everyone is asking: can the rally run further — or is this a bubble?

The reasonable answer is that the forces pushing metal prices higher remain firmly in place: heavy government debt into 2026 — check; persistent and widening deficits in developed markets — check; loose monetary policy and low real yields — check; geopolitical uncertainty — check; tight supply and rising demand — check. In theory, the medium- to long-term outlook remains positive.

In the short term, however, prices have risen too far, too fast, and a correction would be healthy. The gold volatility index is rising again, suggesting we may see a pullback in the continuation of the latest positive push. A sell-off could hit silver harder than gold, as the gold-silver ratio — historically in the 60–80 range — is falling rapidly toward the lower end (currently at 62). Assuming that the ratio remains within its historical range, silver may either underperform gold on the way up or correct more sharply on the way down. In both cases, pullbacks could offer attractive opportunities to add gold/silver to portfolios. Traditional investors typically allocate 2–5% to gold for diversification.

Anyway, it’s gently time for me to say goodbye. Recent sessions suggest Santa may still arrive this year. The so-called Santa Rally — the last five trading days of the year and the first two of the new year — could deliver another 1.5% gains – if history is any guidance.

And after that? Reality may bite.

The first two years of the AI boom were about funding, funding, funding — buying chips and building data centres, models and applications. The third year — this year — raised questions about viability, profitability and revenue. The fourth year — next year — is likely to be about clear winners and losers: those who turn investment into cash flow, and those who don’t.

So yes — for one last time — parts of the technology market probably look bubbly, and next year’s earnings season will be less about shiny numbers and more about where revenues actually come from.

First thing to watch: whether OpenAI’s planned chatbot ads can generate enough revenue to reassure investors that the money really circulates through the ecosystem. I genuinely believe it will be fine.

On this note, I wish you, All, a Merry Xmas, and a Happy and a Healthy New Year !

Key Highlights

• Bitcoin failed to recover above $90,000 and $90,500.
• BTC/USD is trading below a bearish trend line with resistance at $90,000 on the 4-hour chart.
• Ethereum failed to settle above $3,050 and trimmed some gains.
• XRP price is struggling to settle above the $2.00 resistance.

Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis

Bitcoin price found support near $85,500 and started a recovery wave against the US Dollar. BTC climbed above $87,500 and $88,000 to enter a short-term positive zone.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the price even surpassed $90,000 before it faced sellers near $90,550. The price started to decline below $89,000. There was a spike below the 50% Fib retracement level of the recovery wave from the $84,384 swing low to the $90,556 high.

BTC is now trading below a bearish trend line with resistance at $90,000, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).

Immediate support sits at $86,800. A downside break below $86,800 might start another decline. The next major support is $85,200. Any more losses might call for an extended decline toward the $83,500 support zone.

If there is another increase, the price could face resistance near the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) at $89,000. The first key hurdle is near the trend line and $90,000.

A successful close above $90,000 might start another steady increase. In the stated case, the price may perhaps rise toward the $92,500 level. Any more gains might call for a test of $94,000.

Looking at Ethereum, the price failed to settle above $3,050 and recently dipped below $3,000 to enter a bearish zone.

Today’s Key Economic Releases

• US Initial Jobless Claims - Forecast 223K, versus 224K previous.

WTI crude oil: ⬆️ Buy

• WTI reversed from strong support level
•  Likely to rise to resistance level 60.00

WTI crude oil recently reversed up from the support area between the strong support level 55.20 (former monthly low from April and May) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.

The upward reversal from this support area created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing – which started the active short-term correction ii.

Given the strength of the support level 55.20, WTI crude oil can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 60.00 (top of the previous wave ii).

Silver: ⬆️ Buy

• Silver broke round resistance level 70.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 75.00

Silver continues to rise after the earlier breakout of the resistance zone between the round resistance level 70.00 (earlier upward target) and the resistance trendline of the daily up channel from November.

The breakout of this resistance zone accelerated the active impulse wave 3 of the intermediate impulse wave (5) from the start of December.

Given the strong daily uptrend and Momentum, Silver can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 75.00 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave (5)).

Christmas Trading can be both uneventful and chaotic – some traders rush to exit their long-held positions to take a stress-free holiday rest.

The absence of counteracting parties leads to more erratic flows, as seen in this morning’s Stock Market action.

But away from the traditional Christmas Stock Market trading, Metals trade around global exchanges on a different set of fundamentals.

And it seems that they are the most beneficent victims of Santa's flow.

Just today, Gold came very close to $4,500 before retracting somewhat, but allowed Silver, Platinum, and Palladium to reach multi-year highs (or set new records in the case of Silver).

Ranging from 0.70% for the Yellow Metals to above 5.50% for Platinum and Palladium, they are grabbing all the attention of the few traders that still have skin in the game before 2025 ends.

A look at the daily performance in Metals, December 23, 2025 – Source: TradingView. XAG = Silver, XAU = Gold, XCU = Copper, XPT = Platinum, XPD = Palladium

It could be the final bouts of volatility for Markets, but keep a close eye on whether geopolitical tensions arise, which could add more fuel to Commodities.

As many institutions are out to defend certain products, you can also attempt to capture some rare holiday algorithmic patterns – these require thorough study of charts and may not be found until a while.

Let's dive in a quick overview of the daily flows and some short-term trading levels for Gold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD) and Platinum (XPT/USD).

Gold 4H Chart and Technical Levels

Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart, December 23, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The breakout towards new all-time highs is currently ongoing. Watch reactions when prices reach the $4,575 level (high of the measured move).

Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD) trading:

Resistance Levels

• $4,497 Current all-time High
• Potential new ATH resistance (Measured Move) $4,500 to $4,575
• 1.618% Fibonacci Projection $4,687

Support Levels

• Preceding All-time High Pivot $4,300 to $4,400
• Key Support and Triangle top $4,200 to $4,240
• 50-Day MA $4,150
• Major Pivot $3,950 to $4,000 (200-period MA)
• $3,700 consolidation Support
• $3,500 Major Support

Platinum 4H Chart and Technical Levels

Platinum (XPT/USD) 4H Chart, December 23, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Platinum is just going mental at this point.

Up 10% in the past 24 hours and not stopping anywhere, it really could attempt a move to catch up to Gold if things continue that way (even if there's quite some way to go towards that target).

Platinum Technical Levels to keep on your charts:

Resistance levels

• $2,299 March 2008 All-time High
• Session highs $2,275
• $2,500 Psychological Level

Support levels

• May 2008 Support $2,050 to $2,100
• $1,950 Past Day Highs retest support
• 2025 Channel upper bound $1,850 (Mini-Support)
• 2013 and Current year highs $1,700 to $1,750
• $1,620 to $1,650 FOMC Support
• Major High Timeframe pivot $1,500 to $1,600

Silver 4H Chart and Technical Levels

Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart, December 23, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Silver is still following closely its upward-channel and hasn't retraced in quite a while.

A potential Fibonacci-resistance is coming up at around $71.40 at a confluence with the top of the 4H Channel. Above this there will be not resistance until the $75 psychological level.

Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD) trading:

Resistance Levels:

• Daily Highs and potential Resistance $70 to $71.40
• $71.10 Session highs
• $75 Potential Psychological Resistance

Support Levels:

• Pivot $65 to $67 at Previous All-time Highs
• Major Intraday Support $61 to $63
• Pre-FOMC Support $58.00 to $60

Safe Trades and Merry Christmas!

Daily Pivots: (S1) 210.83; (P) 211.21; (R1) 211.81; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral with current retreat, and some consolidations would be seen. Downside of retreat should be contained above 206.74 support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 61.8% projection of 184.35 to 205.30 from 199.04 at 211.98 will extend current up trend to 100% projection at 219.99 next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 to 208.09 from 184.35 at 220.90. On the downside, break of 199.04 support is needed to indicate medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 184.33; (P) 184.62; (R1) 185.01; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is turned neutral with current retreat and some consolidations would be seen. Downside should be contained above 181.98 resistance turned support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 184.89 temporary top will resume larger up trend to 186.31 long term projection level next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress and should target 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, upside could be capped by 186.31 on first attempt. Still, outlook will stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 170.83) holds, even in case of deep pullback. Sustained break of 186.31 will pave the way to 100% projection at 205.81 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8721; (P) 0.8743; (R1) 0.8761; More…

EUR/GBP is staying above 0.8720 support despite today's decline. Intraday bias stays neutral, and further fall is mildly in favor with 0.8800 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 0.8720 will bring deeper fall to 0.8631 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.8221 to 0.8663 at 0.8618). However, on the upside, break of 0.8800 will argue that the fall has completed as a correction, and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.8863.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move. Upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8610) should confirm that this corrective bounce has completed. However, decisive break of 0.8867 will suggest that EUR/GBP is already reversing whole decline from 0.9267 (2022 high). That should pave the way back to 0.9267.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7632; (P) 1.7684; (R1) 1.7718; More...

EUR/AUD's break of 1.7635 support suggests that rebound from 1.7477 has completed. And fall from 1.8160 is still in progress. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.7477 first. Break there will target 1.7245 support and below. Overall, corrective pattern from 1.8554 could extend further.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7468) holds, price actions from 1.8554 could still be a correction to rise from 1.5963 only. However, sustained break of the EMA will argue that it's already correcting the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.6922.