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Gold: ⬆️ Buy

• Gold broke key resistance level 4382.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 4600.00

Gold recently broke sharply above the key resistance level 4382.00 (which stopped the previous intermediate impulse wave (3) in the middle of October).

The breakout of the resistance level 4382.00 coincided with the breakout of the resistance trendline of the daily Ascending Triangle chart pattern from October.

Given the overriding daily uptrend, Gold can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 4600.00 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave 3).

On 15 December, we highlighted that USD/JPY was sliding towards a key support area near the lower boundary of its ascending channel.

Since then (as shown by the arrow), the pair has reversed higher, gaining around 1.5% and moving close to an important high set last month.

Notably, the advance has occurred despite two bearish factors:

→ last Friday’s interest-rate increase to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years;

→ the ongoing risk of currency intervention aimed at supporting the yen.

It appears that the rate hike had already been priced in, while traders focused on the relatively dovish tone of the Bank of Japan’s comments following the decision. At the same time, the threat of intervention is largely being viewed as rhetorical rather than imminent.

Technical Analysis of the USD/JPY Chart

From a technical perspective:

→ the decline since 20 November resembles a bullish flag correction pattern;

→ the forceful breakout above its upper boundary suggests growing confidence among buyers in a continuation of the uptrend, after successfully keeping the pair within the broader channel that has been in place since September.

It cannot be ruled out that:

→ in the short term, the channel’s median line (which previously acted as resistance) could serve as the next upside target;

→ support may be provided by the acceleration zone — a sign of buyer-side imbalance — between 156.15 (the breakout level) and the 157 yen-per-dollar mark.

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WTI crude staged a sharp rebound at the start of the week, confirming a short-term bottom at 54.98. The move followed a brief breach of 55.20 last week that failed to gain traction, before price surged back through 57.13, former support-turned-resistance.

The catalyst was a renewed escalation around Venezuela. News that U.S. authorities had intercepted another oil tanker in international waters off the Venezuelan coast raised concerns over supply disruption. The US Coast Guard is now pursuing yet another vessel, potentially marking the third such action in under two weeks.

This follows last week’s hardening stance from President Donald Trump, who announced a “total and complete” blockade of sanctioned Venezuelan oil shipments. Markets are increasingly sensitive to the risk that enforcement actions could escalate further, especially if more seizures follow.

That said, skepticism over the durability of the rebound remains widespread. The structural backdrop for oil is far less supportive than in past geopolitical flare-ups. OPEC+ has steadily increased output through 2025, unwinding years of coordinated production cuts that were originally designed to defend higher prices.

That shift has coincided with growing competition from the U.S., which has now established itself as the world’s largest producer and exporter of both crude oil and LNG. The battle for market share between OPEC+ and U.S. producers acts as a structural cap on prices, making sustained rallies harder to maintain.

As a result, geopolitical tensions are more likely just catalysts for short-term volatility rather than drivers of lasting trends. Unless conflicts expand beyond regional scope or disrupt major supply corridors, price spikes are likely to fade as supply realities reassert themselves.

Technically, WTI now faces a dense resistance zone ahead. Initial resistance sits at the 55 D EMA (now at 59.44), currently near 59.44, followed closely by resistance at 60.50. Together, these levels form a strong barrier around the psychologically important 60 mark.

As long as this zone caps advances, the broader downtrend from the 78.87 high remains intact, with risk of another leg lower toward a decisive break below 55.20.

Conversely, sustained trading above 60 would argue that WTI is at least correcting the larger downtrend, opening room for extended rise towards 38.2% retracement of 78.87 to 54.98 at 64.10, likely in the first half of next year.

Gold hit new record high following 1.8% acceleration in early Monday, which broke above psychological $4400 barrier and pushed the price further into uncharted territory.

Increased safe haven demand on fragile geopolitical and economic situation contributed to the latest rally, driven mainly by growing expectations more dovish Fed’s stance in 2026.

Although the central bank expressed cautious and data-dependent approach to the monetary policy, markets expect at least two rate cuts in 2026, with weakening conditions of the US labor market and the fact that Jerome Powell will step down in May and new Fed Chair person is expected to be more compliant with President Trump’s ideas of more lose monetary policy.

The yellow metal peaked at $4420 this morning, with subsequent easing seen as expected reaction on overbought conditions on daily chart.

Broken $4400 barrier and former top at $4381, reverted to solid supports which should ideally contain shallow correction and keep fresh bulls intact for fresh push higher.

Daily close above $4400 to confirm fresh bullish signal and keep focus at the upside, with targets at $4430, 4448 and $4460, guarding psychological $4500 level.

Res: 4420; 4430; 4448; 4460
Sup: 4400; 4381; 4375; 4350

• Gold surges to fresh all-time high as geopolitical risks intensify.
• Bulls remain in control but a close above 4,380 is key.

Gold was spotted at a new all-time high of 4,420 early on Monday, extending its two-month-old recovery phase from October’s low of 3,886. A combination of factors - including expectations of Fed rate cuts, headlines surrounding a potential renewed escalation in tensions between Israel and Iran, and another U.S. oil blockade against Venezuela – was sufficient to propel bullion to higher levels.

The bulls must now secure a clear close above the previous peak of 4,381 to stretch towards the 4,500 psychological level and then pick up steam towards the tentative resistance line from April 2025 at 4,700. Note that the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the latest downfall is in the neighborhood too. Beyond that, the door could open for the 4,900 round-level.

From a technical perspective, the deviation from the Ichimoku cloud and the positive slope in the simple moving averages (SMAs) can fuel buying interest in the short-term. The rising MACD is another encouraging sign, though some caution might be warranted as the RSI is strengthening in the overbought territory.

In the event upside pressures fade immediately, support could initially emerge near the 4,250-4,290 zone and the 20-day SMA. Further declines could bring the 50-day SMA and the upper band of the Ichimoku back into play within the 4,130-4,150 region.

Summing up, the precious metal might be poised to enjoy a Santa Claus rally as it enters uncharted territory, with buyers likely awaiting a convincing move above 4,380 to drive the price higher.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1695; (P) 1.1717; (R1) 1.1730; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral as range trading continues below 1.1803. . On the upside, break of 1.1803 will extend the rally from 1.1467 to retest 1.1917 high. However, firm break of 55 D EMA (now at 1.1640) will turn bias back to the downside for 1.1467 support, to extend the corrective pattern form 1.19717 with another falling leg.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1385) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will carry larger bullish implication. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3359; (P) 1.3376; (R1) 1.3396; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral as consolidations continue below 1.3455. On the upside, above 1.3455 will resume the rebound from 1.3008. Firm break of 1.3470 resistance will pave the way to retest 1.3787 high. However, sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 1.3305) will argue that the rebound has completed. Deeper fall would be seen back to 1.3008 support to resume the whole corrective pattern from 1.3787 high.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 1.3787 is merely a corrective move, and larger rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 1.3787 will target 1.4248 (2021 high) key structural resistance. This will remain the favored case as long as target 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3787 at 1.2474 holds, in case of another fall.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.21; (P) 156.99; (R1) 158.49; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for 157.88 and above as rise from 139.87 is trying to resume. Firm break of 158.85 key structural resistance will be an important medium term bullish sign. Next target will be 161.94 high. Risk will now stay on the upside as long as 154.38 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) could have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. Decisive break of 158.85 structural resistance will solidify this bullish case and target 161.94 for confirmation. On the downside, break of 150.90 resistance turned support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective range pattern with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7945; (P) 0.7953; (R1) 0.7968; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral as sideway trading continues above 0.7923 temporary low. Outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 0.7828 could extend further. On the downside, below 0.7923 will target 0.7877 support. On the upside, though, break of 0.7990 support turned resistance will bring stronger rebound towards 0.8084.

In the bigger picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low). Long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382.