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Daily Pivots: (S1) 208.94; (P) 210.01; (R1) 212.03; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside for 61.8% projection of 184.35 to 205.30 from 199.04 at 211.98. Firm break there will extend current up trend to 100% projection at 219.99 next. On the downside, below 210.00 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 to 208.09 from 184.35 at 220.90. On the downside, break of 199.04 support is needed to indicate medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pullback.

Global markets opened the final full trading week of 2025 on a mixed footing, with price action shaped more by thin holiday liquidity than fresh conviction. Asian equities leaned modestly higher, led by a strong surge in Japanese stocks after Friday’s firm close in the U.S., where technology shares again drove gains. Elsewhere in the region, equities also firmed, but advances were far more restrained, reflecting limited follow-through rather than renewed risk appetite.

The real focus has shifted decisively toward precious metals. Gold and Silver both pushed to new record highs, pulling attention away from equities and currencies alike. With positioning light and liquidity thin, the outsized moves in metals are more of a function of defensive demand amplified by year-end conditions.

That broader theme is visible across markets. Volatility remains elevated in pockets, but without the kind of cross-asset confirmation typically associated with durable trends. This pattern is likely to persist through the remainder of the year, with more meaningful repricing deferred until liquidity normalizes in early 2026.

In FX markets, Yen is attempting to stabilize against Dollar after a sharp selloff, but the effort remains tentative. There is little evidence of broad-based support for the currency, and gains have failed to spill over into crosses.

Japanese officials have stepped up verbal intervention, warning against rapid and one-sided currency moves. Top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura said authorities were concerned and ready to take “appropriate actions” against excessive moves, while Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara echoed concerns about speculative pressure and stressed the need for stability reflecting fundamentals.

Despite the firmer rhetoric, markets remain unconvinced. The key test will be whether Tokyo delivers concrete measures if USD/JPY pushes higher again and approaches the 160 area, or whether officials continue to rely solely on verbal warnings.

For now, Kiwi is the strongest currency on the day, followed by Aussie and Sterling. Dollar sits at the bottom of the table, trailed by Swiss Franc and Loonie, while Euro and Yen are holding middle ground amid the broader holiday drift.

In Asia, Nikkei rose 1.81%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.43%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.69%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.68%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.058 to 2.082.

Gold breaks above 4,400 as geopolitics ignite late-year surge, Silver nears 70

Gold surged to a fresh record high above 4,400 today, finally breaking out after weeks of subdued momentum. Though, Silver is still taking the lead, extending its powerful rally toward the psychologically important 70 level.

Thin holiday trading conditions amplified the reaction, but the underlying driver is a sharp escalation in geopolitical risk. Safe-haven demand accelerated after US President Donald Trump and senior aides refused to rule out military conflict with Venezuela, jolting markets that had largely discounted further escalation in Latin America.

Washington is now intensifying pressure on Venezuelan oil exports, tightening what traders increasingly see as a de facto blockade. Multiple vessels have reportedly been seized off Venezuela’s coast in international waters, with another currently being pursued. The move adds further strain on the government of Nicolás Maduro, heightening fears of miscalculation and retaliation.

At the same time, optimism around a diplomatic breakthrough in Ukraine fades. Markets are reassessing the likelihood of a durable ceasefire as negotiations drag on without tangible progress. Comments over the weekend suggested talks remain focused on aligning positions rather than finalizing concrete outcomes, reinforcing skepticism over near-term resolution of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Against that backdrop, Gold’s technical breakout arrived earlier than expected. The decisive break above 4,381.22 suggests that consolidation from that peak had already completed at 3,997.73. Near-term outlook will stay firmly bullish as long as 4,271.41 holds as support on any pullback.

Attention is now on whether price can push cleanly through the rising channel ceiling, a move that would signal further upside acceleration. If that ceiling gives way, the next target comes in at the 61.8% projection of the 3,267.90 to 4,381.22 advance from 3,997.73 at 4,685.76.

As for Silver, outlook will remain bullish as long as 64.43 support holds. 4H MACD suggests that it's likely now in an upside re-acceleration phase. Next target is 138.2% projection of 36.93 to 54.44 from 48.50 at 72.68. Break there will target 161.8% projection 76.83.

China holds lending rates, leans on fiscal push for growth

China kept benchmark loan prime rates unchanged for a seventh consecutive month, in line with expectations. The one-year loan prime rate was held at 3.0%, while the over-five-year LPR, a key reference for mortgage pricing, remained at 3.5%.

The decision reinforces the view that near-term monetary easing is not a priority. While lower LPRs would help reduce financing costs and support investment and consumption, authorities appear comfortable maintaining current settings as they assess the impact of earlier stimulus and targeted support measures across the economy.

Nevertheless, policy guidance from the Central Economic Work Conference earlier points to a broader strategic tilt. Officials signaled that China will pursue a more proactive fiscal stance alongside a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, suggesting growth support will increasingly come from government spending and structural measures rather than immediate rate cuts.

Fed’s Hammack downplays CPI drop, backs steady rates into Spring

In an interview with Beth Hammack published by the Wall Street Journal, the Cleveland Fed president argued there was no urgency for the Fed to adjust interest rates, saying policy could remain unchanged at 3.50–3.75% at least until Spring. Hammack said that timeframe would allow policymakers to better judge whether goods price inflation is truly easing as tariffs work their way through supply chains.

Hammack framed her outlook around patience rather than reaction. Her base case is for rates to stay at current levels "for some period of time", until there is clearer evidence that "either inflation is coming back down to target or the employment side is weakening more materially."

She was notably skeptical of last week’s November CPI report, which showed a sharp drop in headline inflation to 2.7% from 3.1%, with a similar decline in core inflation. Hammack said she takes the data “with a grain of salt,” pointing to distortions linked to Autumn’s government shutdown. Her own estimates place inflation closer to 2.9–3.0%.

While describing the current policy rate as roughly neutral, Hammack signaled she would actually prefer a slightly more restrictive stance to apply additional pressure on inflation.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 208.94; (P) 210.01; (R1) 212.03; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside for 61.8% projection of 184.35 to 205.30 from 199.04 at 211.98. Firm break there will extend current up trend to 100% projection at 219.99 next. On the downside, below 210.00 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 to 208.09 from 184.35 at 220.90. On the downside, break of 199.04 support is needed to indicate medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pullback.

Gold surged to a fresh record high above 4,400 today, finally breaking out after weeks of subdued momentum. Though, Silver is still taking the lead, extending its powerful rally toward the psychologically important 70 level.

Thin holiday trading conditions amplified the reaction, but the underlying driver is a sharp escalation in geopolitical risk. Safe-haven demand accelerated after US President Donald Trump and senior aides refused to rule out military conflict with Venezuela, jolting markets that had largely discounted further escalation in Latin America.

Washington is now intensifying pressure on Venezuelan oil exports, tightening what traders increasingly see as a de facto blockade. Multiple vessels have reportedly been seized off Venezuela’s coast in international waters, with another currently being pursued. The move adds further strain on the government of Nicolás Maduro, heightening fears of miscalculation and retaliation.

At the same time, optimism around a diplomatic breakthrough in Ukraine fades. Markets are reassessing the likelihood of a durable ceasefire as negotiations drag on without tangible progress. Comments over the weekend suggested talks remain focused on aligning positions rather than finalizing concrete outcomes, reinforcing skepticism over near-term resolution of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Against that backdrop, Gold’s technical breakout arrived earlier than expected. The decisive break above 4,381.22 suggests that consolidation from that peak had already completed at 3,997.73. Near-term outlook will stay firmly bullish as long as 4,271.41 holds as support on any pullback.

Attention is now on whether price can push cleanly through the rising channel ceiling, a move that would signal further upside acceleration. If that ceiling gives way, the next target comes in at the 61.8% projection of the 3,267.90 to 4,381.22 advance from 3,997.73 at 4,685.76.

As for Silver, outlook will remain bullish as long as 64.43 support holds. 4H MACD suggests that it's likely now in an upside re-acceleration phase. Next target is 138.2% projection of 36.93 to 54.44 from 48.50 at 72.68. Break there will target 161.8% projection 76.83.

China kept benchmark loan prime rates unchanged for a seventh consecutive month, in line with expectations. The one-year loan prime rate was held at 3.0%, while the over-five-year LPR, a key reference for mortgage pricing, remained at 3.5%.

The decision reinforces the view that near-term monetary easing is not a priority. While lower LPRs would help reduce financing costs and support investment and consumption, authorities appear comfortable maintaining current settings as they assess the impact of earlier stimulus and targeted support measures across the economy.

Nevertheless, policy guidance from the Central Economic Work Conference earlier points to a broader strategic tilt. Officials signaled that China will pursue a more proactive fiscal stance alongside a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, suggesting growth support will increasingly come from government spending and structural measures rather than immediate rate cuts.

In an interview with Beth Hammack published by the Wall Street Journal, the Cleveland Fed president argued there was no urgency for the Fed to adjust interest rates, saying policy could remain unchanged at 3.50–3.75% at least until Spring. Hammack said that timeframe would allow policymakers to better judge whether goods price inflation is truly easing as tariffs work their way through supply chains.

Hammack framed her outlook around patience rather than reaction. Her base case is for rates to stay at current levels "for some period of time", until there is clearer evidence that "either inflation is coming back down to target or the employment side is weakening more materially."

She was notably skeptical of last week’s November CPI report, which showed a sharp drop in headline inflation to 2.7% from 3.1%, with a similar decline in core inflation. Hammack said she takes the data “with a grain of salt,” pointing to distortions linked to Autumn’s government shutdown. Her own estimates place inflation closer to 2.9–3.0%.

While describing the current policy rate as roughly neutral, Hammack signaled she would actually prefer a slightly more restrictive stance to apply additional pressure on inflation.

Friday’s rally in technology stocks came as a much-needed relief for global financial markets and was sparked by a single, straightforward piece of news: Oracle will host TikTok’s US user data under a new US–China arrangement that allows the app to continue operating in the United States. The deal is yet to be approved.

But if it does, under the deal, Oracle will store and secure US user data on its cloud infrastructure and help oversee cybersecurity and algorithm-safety measures. It is a big responsibility given that roughly half of the US population uses TikTok. In return, Oracle is expected to take a meaningful equity stake of around 15% in the newly structured US TikTok business, while the broader investor consortium secures majority control. But above all, Oracle gains – with this deal - a strategic foothold in a high-growth digital platform via its cloud services — and that’s a golden narrative for its growth profile.

Oracle shares rebounded more than 6% on Friday, after having fallen over 45% from their September peak. The rally spread across the broader AI and tech complex, as investors reassessed the monetisation potential of data-centre infrastructure and computing power. Nvidia rose nearly 4%, while the Nasdaq gained 1.3%, reclaiming its 50-day moving average.

That said, the pressure on tech stocks is unlikely to be over. First, the TikTok deal remains modest relative to the scale of Oracle’s business, its heavy debt load and ongoing investment needs. On its own, it is unlikely to reverse the recent deterioration in appetite for leveraged debt, nor does it fully answer the question of how revenues will grow fast enough to justify rising leverage and capital spending.

Second, developments in China highlight how quickly competitive dynamics can shift. Chinese chipmaker Moore Threads, founded by a former Nvidia executive and recently listed, announced plans to release new AI chips aimed at competing with Nvidia’s Hopper-generation products. The company claims its upcoming chips rival Nvidia’s H20 and H200, and narrow the gap with the Nvidia’s next-generation Blackwell platform. This is an important development in the context of the US–China chip war.

Only weeks ago, Nvidia received approval to resume sales of its H200 chips to China, at a time when those chips were widely seen as being well ahead of domestic Chinese alternatives. Moore Threads now says it could begin producing these chips as early as next year and claims energy-efficiency gains of up to 10× versus its own previous GPU generation. If realised, this would reduce Chinese buyers’ dependence on Nvidia hardware — particularly as Beijing weighs how much to encourage domestic alternatives. The closer Chinese chips move toward US peers in performance and efficiency, the stronger the incentive for state support.

Still, several red flags remain. First, designing advanced chips is one challenge; manufacturing them at scale is another. Moore Threads cannot go to TSMC after being placed on the US Entity List in 2023, meaning it must turn to domestic foundries. SMIC, China’s leading chip manufacturer, has the capability to produce such chips using the country’s most advanced available processes, but those technologies remain one to two generations behind TSMC, implying potential limits on performance, yields and efficiency. Second, much of the AI ecosystem is built around Nvidia’s software stack, and switching to Moore Threads’ platform would involve transition costs, integration challenges and reliability risks that are yet to be fully tested.

Nevertheless, if Beijing decides this is the strategic path forward, Chinese companies may ultimately have little choice but to adapt. On Monday, Moore Threads shares rose 1.9% in Shanghai, while SMIC gained more than 6% in Hong Kong.

The broader message is clear: China has not said its last word in the global tech race.

Elsewhere in Asia, tech-heavy indices started the week higher. South Korea’s Kospi gained more than 2%, while Japan’s Nikkei initially advanced before giving back gains amid a sharp sell-off in Japanese government bonds that briefly pushed the 10-year yield to 2.10%. The USDJPY retreated as Japanese officials warned that positioning against the yen remains heavy and one-sided, reviving the risk of intervention — even if such action would not necessarily reverse the broader trend.

The yen’s strength weighed on the US dollar, while gold surged to a fresh all-time high above $4’400 per ounce, supported by rising geopolitical tensions involving the US and Venezuela. Oil prices also moved higher, with WTI crude above $57pb and Brent clearing $60pb, though the move may prove short-lived.

Looking ahead, the week will be shortened by the Christmas holiday in Western markets. Before liquidity fades, the US will release its latest GDP update, expected to confirm 3.2% growth in Q3, alongside signs that price pressures may have firmed.

After that, markets are likely to slow as investors head into year-end mode.

As our members know we have had many profitable trading setups recently. In this technical article, we are going to talk about another Elliott Wave trading setup we got in AUDJPY. The pair has completed its correction exactly at the Equal Legs zone, also known as the Blue Box Area. In this article, we’ll break down the Elliott Wave forecast, explain the trading setup in detail, and provide the upside target.

AUDJPY Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 12.15.2025

AUDJPY is forming a 3 waves pullback against the 101.521 low. The price structure looks incomplete at the moment. We believe the correction is still in progress and expect another leg lower toward the 102.824-102.072 area , where we are looking to re-enter as buyers. We recommend that members avoid selling AUDJPY. The pair is expected to make at least a three-wave bounce from the Blue Box area. Once the price reaches the 50% Fibonacci retracement against the black (X) connector, we will make the position risk-free by moving the stop loss to breakeven and booking partial profits.

Official trading strategy on How to trade 3, 7, or 11 swing and equal leg is explained in details in Educational Video, available for members viewing inside the membership area.

AUDJPY Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 12.19.2025

The pair has made extension toward our buying zone- Blue Box area. AUDJPY found buyers as expected, making decent reaction. The rally from from the buying zone has exceeded 50 fibs against the (b) blue connector. Consequently, any long positions from the Blue Box should now be risk-free. We’ve set our stop loss at breakeven and have already secured partial profits. While price holds above 102.312, we consider the wave ((iv)) correction complete and see potential for wave ((v)) to be in progress toward new highs. The pair is targeting 104.86-105.64 area next.

Hello fellow traders,

As our members know we have had many profitable trading setups recently. In this technical article, we are going to present another Elliott Wave trading setup we got in CADJPY. The forex pair completed this correction precisely at the Equal Legs zone, referred to as the Blue Box Area. In the following sections, we will delve into the specifics of the Elliott Wave pattern observed , discuss the trading setup.

CADJPY Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 12.15.2025

The current view suggests that CADJPY is forming a 3 waves correction in wave (iv) blue . The price action shows an incomplete structure from the peak. We anticipate an extension toward the extreme zone at 112.497-111.910, marked as a Blue Box. At that zone we are looking to re-enter as buyers.

We recommend members to avoid selling the pair. As the main trend remains bullish, we anticipate at least a 3-wave bounce from this Blue Box area. Once the price touches the 50 fibs against the b red connector, we’ll make positions risk-free and set the stop loss at breakeven and book partial profits. On other hand, breaking below the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level at 111.91 would invalidate the trade.

Official trading strategy on How to trade 3, 7, or 11 swing and equal leg is explained in details in Educational Video, available for members viewing inside the membership area.

Quick reminder on how to trade our charts :

Red bearish stamp+ blue box = Selling Setup
Green bullish stamp+ blue box = Buying Setup
Charts with Black stamps are not tradable. 🚫

CADJPY Elliott Wave 1 Hour Chart 12.19.2025

CADJPY has made extension down toward Blue Box (112.497-111.910) and found buyers as expected. The pair made strong rally from the Buying Zone, reaching new highs. Consequently, any long positions from the Blue Box should now be risk-free. We’ve set our stop loss at breakeven and have already secured partial profits. We count correction completed at 112.245 low.

Key Highlights

• EUR/USD started a downside correction from the 1.1800 zone.
• A key bullish trend line is forming with support at 1.1700 on the 4-hour chart.
• GBP/USD is currently consolidating gains above 1.3320.
• Gold could continue to gain bullish momentum if it settles above $4,380.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro failed to clear the 1.1800 barrier against the US Dollar. EUR/USD corrected some gains and traded below 1.1750.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled above the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour) and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour). A high was formed at 1.1804 before there was a pullback. The pair dipped and tested the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1615 swing low to the 1.1804 high.

On the downside, there is key support at 1.1700. There is also a bullish trend line forming with support at 1.1700. A downside break below the trend line might spark bearish moves.

The first major support is 1.1655 and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1615 swing low to the 1.1804 high. The next support could be 1.1615 and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour), below which the bears might aim for a move toward 1.1550.

Immediate resistance sits near 1.1750. The first key hurdle is seen near 1.1760. A close above 1.1760 could open the doors for a move toward 1.1800. Any more gains could set the pace for a steady increase toward 1.1850.

Looking at Gold, the bulls remain in action and might soon aim for a move above the $4,400 level in the near term.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

• Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Sep 2025 – Forecast -0.10, versus -0.12 previous.

A busy week of economic data and central bank decisions gave traders a clearer view of market conditions. The main highlight was stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data, with employers adding 64,000 jobs in November, beating forecasts and showing a clear improvement from October. U.S. CPI inflation data also came in lower than expected, supporting the view that inflation is easing.

Central bank decisions were mostly as expected. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged, the Bank of England cut rates, and the Bank of Japan raised interest rates. However, the BOJ’s statement suggested a slower pace of rate hikes next year, which led to a sharp rise in USD/JPY.

During the week, equity markets in both the U.S. and Japan moved lower as concerns over high AI-related valuations continued. Investor profit-taking after a strong year for equities also added pressure. In contrast, gold continued to rise, moving higher toward record levels as investors looked for safety amid changing rate expectations.

Markets This Week

U.S. Stocks

The Dow index ended the week lower as investors took profits after a strong rise in 2025, while concerns over the valuations of AI-related companies continued to weigh on sentiment. With markets expected to be quieter, further profit-taking remains a risk, making selling into strength the preferred approach in the near term. Resistance is seen at 48,500 and 49,000, while support is located at 48,000, 47,500, 47,000, 46,500, and 46,000.

Japanese Stocks

Japanese stocks moved lower alongside U.S. markets for most of the week, before rebounding after the Bank of Japan meeting. Markets scaled back expectations for further Japanese rate hikes, which led to a sharp weakening of the yen and supported the Nikkei. Looking ahead, volatility may increase with Japanese markets open all week and the risk of possible Bank of Japan intervention. Given the risk of a quick pullback, the focus remains on selling opportunities. Key levels remain unchanged, with resistance at 51,000円, 51,500円, and 52,000円, and support at 49,000円, 48,000円, and 47,000円.

USD/JPY

Ahead of the expected Bank of Japan rate hike, USD/JPY moved lower and found support near the early-month lows, but while the hike itself was widely priced in, the BOJ’s statement surprised markets and led traders to reduce expectations for further rate rises in 2026, triggering a sharp rebound back toward the highs of the year. Looking ahead, USD/JPY remains a key focus, with the risk of Bank of Japan yen-buying intervention in thin markets if weakness continues; the pair is overbought in the short term, raising the risk of a pullback, although a break above the yearly highs could see a quick extension higher before any sharp reversal. Resistance is at 158, 159, and 160, while support is at 156, 155, and 154.5.

Gold

Gold continued its strong uptrend last week, returning to record highs. With momentum still firm, thin market conditions could allow prices to push sharply above recent highs. The focus remains on buying opportunities as long as gold holds above the 10-day moving average. Resistance is seen at $4,350, $4,380, $4,400, and $4,500, while support is located at $4,300, $4,250 and $4,200.

Crude Oil

The recent downtrend in crude oil continued as the market remained focused on oversupply concerns and weakening demand. While the 2025 lows were tested and held for now, the broader downtrend remains strong, keeping the focus on selling opportunities. Resistance is seen at $60, $65, $66.50, $70, and $75, while support remains at $55 and $50.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin saw a quiet week of range trading as activity slowed toward the end of the year. While holiday conditions could still allow for a surprise move, range trading between $85,000 and $95,000 remains the preferred short-term strategy. Resistance is at $95,000 and $100,000, while support is at $85,000, $80,000, and $75,000.

This Week’s Focus

Monday: U.K. GDP

• Tuesday: Japan BoJ Core CPI, U.S. Durable Goods, GDP, Industrial Production and Consumer Confidence
• Wednesday: Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
• Thursday: Japan BoJ Governor Ueda speech, Christmas Day
• Friday: Japan Tokyo Core CPI and Industrial Production

This is a shortened trading week, with most major markets closed on Thursday and Friday for the Christmas holiday. There is still some important U.S. data due, which could create volatility, and after the sharp weakening of the yen last week, there is also potential for Bank of Japan intervention if the move extends further. While trading conditions are likely to be quiet, reduced liquidity means there is always the risk of sudden, large market moves.