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Daily Pivots: (S1) 183.01; (P) 183.88; (R1) 185.56; More...

EUR/JPY's rally is in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside for 186.31 long term projection level next. On the downside, below 184.06 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 181.98 resistance turned support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress and should target 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, upside could be capped by 186.31 on first attempt. Still, outlook will stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 170.83) holds, even in case of deep pullback. Sustained break of 186.31 will pave the way to 100% projection at 205.81 next.

At its meeting on 18 December, the European Central Bank (ECB) left all key interest rates unchanged, maintaining the deposit facility rate at 2.0%. The decision was widely anticipated, offering no fresh catalyst for meaningful euro movement. While headline inflation for the eurozone remained close to target at 2.15% in November, the ECB's updated projections saw a slight upward revision for the coming years, primarily driven by persistent price growth in the services sector.

Concurrently, the ECB improved its GDP growth forecast for 2025–2027. However, with the decision fully priced in, it provided neither additional support nor pressure to the single currency.

The primary driver for EUR/USD now stems from US monetary policy. The recent Federal Reserve rate cut from 4.00% to 3.75% has narrowed the yield differential between the dollar and the euro. This reduces the dollar's interest rate advantage and makes euro-denominated assets relatively more attractive, providing a moderate tailwind for the euro.

Looking ahead, medium-term dynamics will hinge on relative expectations for central bank policy. Should markets continue to price in a more aggressive easing cycle from the Fed compared to the ECB, the euro is likely to find further support. Conversely, any signs that the ECB is preparing to proactively ease policy in response to eurozone economic weakness would limit the euro's upside potential.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, the pair is consolidating near the breakdown level of the previous growth channel's lower boundary. We anticipate a downside breakout from this range and a resumption of the third decline wave, with an initial target at 1.1650.

The MACD indicator technically confirms this bearish outlook. Its signal line is below zero and pointing decisively downward, reflecting sustained bearish momentum and potential for further downside.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the market completed another decline wave to 1.1702, followed by a correction to 1.1737. A new downward impulse towards 1.1650 is currently forming. A sustained break below this level would signal the potential for an extended third wave, targeting the 1.1645 area as a local objective.

This scenario is supported by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below the 50 level and trending firmly downwards.

Conclusion

The euro's trajectory remains more sensitive to shifting US policy expectations than to the ECB's predictable stance. While the narrowed interest rate differential offers near-term support, the technical structure appears bearish. A decisive break below the current consolidation range could trigger a renewed move towards the 1.1650–1.1645 support zone.

As the XAU/USD chart shows, gold has climbed above $4,400 today, setting a new all-time high.

On Friday, when analysing the gold chart, we highlighted a triangle formation and noted strong selling pressure near the previous record high around $4,380, set in October.

However, over the weekend geopolitical tensions intensified following reports that the United States detained an oil tanker linked to Venezuela. At the turn of the week, this resulted in a clear triangle breakout (as indicated by the arrow):

→ during the second half of Friday’s session, gold moved above the upper boundary of the pattern;

→ at the Asian open, the price turned higher after retesting that level, with former resistance acting as support.

As a result, concerns about a potential armed conflict involving the US have shifted the balance of supply and demand decisively higher.

The bullish momentum has justified the construction of an ascending channel. It is worth noting that the RSI indicator is currently in overbought territory. Intraday trading during the US session could therefore bring some corrective pullback, with potential support coming from:

→ the lower boundary of the newly formed channel;

→ the area between the previous peak at $4,380 and the psychological $4,000 level.

According to Goldman Sachs analysts, structural demand from central banks combined with falling interest rates could drive gold prices towards $4,900 by the end of 2026.

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Gold price started a fresh surge above $4,350 and traded to a new all-time high. Crude oil is recovering and might rise toward the $58.50 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for Gold and WTI Crude Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price rallied to a new all-time high and traded above $4,395 against the US Dollar.
• A key bullish trend line is forming with support at $4,334 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• WTI Crude oil is recovering losses and trading above $56.20.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at $56.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price formed support near $4,240. The price remained in a bullish zone and started a fresh increase above $4,300, as mentioned in the previous analysis.

The bulls pushed the price above $4,360 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, it traded to a new all-time high at $4,397. The price is still showing bullish signs above $4,380, and the RSI is above 70.

Initial support on the downside is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $4,271 swing low to the $4,397 high at $4,365. The next area of interest might be near a key bullish trend line at $4,335 and the 50% Fib retracement.

A downside break below the trend line might send the price to $4,300. If the bulls fail to protect $4,300, the price could start a larger downside correction. In the stated case, Gold could drop toward $4,240.

The next area for the bulls might be $4,220. A daily close below $4,220 could spark bearish moves and send the price to $4,150.

If there is a fresh increase, the price could face resistance at $4,400. The next sell zone might be $4,420. An upside break above the $4,420 resistance could send Gold price toward $4,465. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase to $4,500.

WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price found support near $54.85 against the US Dollar. The price formed a base and started a recovery wave above $55.50 and the 50-hour simple moving average.

The bulls were able to push the price above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $58.80 swing high to the $54.84 swing low. Besides, there was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at $56.00.

The hourly RSI is above the 60 level, and the price is attempting to close above the 50% Fib retracement. The next hurdle could be $57.85. A clear move above $57.85 could send the price toward $58.50. Any more gains might open the doors for a test of $58.80.

Conversely, the price might start a fresh decline from $57.30 or $57.85. Immediate support sits near $56.45 or the 50-hour simple moving average. The key breakdown zone on the WTI crude oil chart might be $55.55.

If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $54.85. Any more losses might encourage the bears for a push toward $54.00.

Start trading commodity CFDs with tight spreads. Open your trading account now or learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Asia Market Wrap - Nikkei Rises 1.9% as Global Equities Rise

Stock markets around the world are rising as investors feel optimistic about a strong finish to the year, encouraged by recent gains in the US.A key index that tracks global stocks has gone up for three days in a row, reaching its highest level since mid-December, and is predicted to grow nearly 20% in 2025.

In Asia, Japan's Nikkei climbed 1.9% because a cheaper currency is expected to help companies that sell goods abroad make more money. Similarly, Chinese stocks saw gains, while Singapore's market reached a new record high.

European Session - European Shares On Course to Open Lower

European stock markets are expected to open with small losses on Monday, pausing after last week's rally as trading slows down for the short Christmas holiday week.

Even with lighter trading activity expected, investor confidence remains high due to renewed excitement about AI companies and hopes that the US Federal Reserve will lower interest rates next year. Traders are also less worried about the European Central Bank raising rates in the future.

However, there is still some caution as investors watch the war in Ukraine, following comments from Russia that recent peace proposals haven't improved the situation. In economic news, the UK is set to release its final growth figures later today, while early trading shows major European indexes down by roughly 0.1% to 0.2%.

On the FX front, the Japanese yen remained very weak on Monday, hovering near record lows against the Euro and Swiss Franc.

Traders feel confident betting against the yen because the Bank of Japan hasn't signaled any plans to raise interest rates, even though government officials have warned they might step in to support the currency.

The yen also sat near an 11-month low against the US dollar and a 17-month low against the Australian dollar. While the US dollar dipped slightly to 157.37 yen, it remains close to recent highs.

Meanwhile, the Swiss franc reached a new record against the yen, and the Australian dollar climbed to its strongest level since last July.

Currency Power Balance

Source: OANDA Labs

Silver was the standout performer in commodities, hitting a new record high of $69.44/oz, which brings its total gains for the year to nearly 140%. Gold also increased in value, rising 1.5% to breach $4400/oz.

In the energy market, oil prices went up after the US stopped a Venezuelan oil tanker and began chasing another, marking the third such incident in under two weeks. As a result, Brent crude rose 0.8% to $60.96 a barrel, and US crude increased by the same percentage to $56.99 a barrel.

Economic Calendar and Final Thoughts

It is a quiet day on the calendar for European data releases but there are a few ECB policymakers who will be speaking during the session.

The US session is equally quiet from a data perspective with Canadian PPI the only major data release during the session. Markets may focus on rising geopolitical risk as the US ramps up pressure on Venezuela.

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)

Chart of the Day - FTSE 100

From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 index is eyeing a pullback this morning.

However, given the mood around global equity futures in the Asian session, i wonder whether such a move will prove sustainable?

The index is approaching support at the 9850-9860 area with a break below opening up a deeper correction toward the 9800 and 9760 support areas.

The period-14 RSI does remain comfortably above the 50 neutral level which hints at bullish momentum remaining strong at the present time.

FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, December 22. 2025

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)

Daily Pivots: (S1) 208.94; (P) 210.01; (R1) 212.03; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside for 61.8% projection of 184.35 to 205.30 from 199.04 at 211.98. Firm break there will extend current up trend to 100% projection at 219.99 next. On the downside, below 210.00 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 to 208.09 from 184.35 at 220.90. On the downside, break of 199.04 support is needed to indicate medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pullback.

Global markets opened the final full trading week of 2025 on a mixed footing, with price action shaped more by thin holiday liquidity than fresh conviction. Asian equities leaned modestly higher, led by a strong surge in Japanese stocks after Friday’s firm close in the U.S., where technology shares again drove gains. Elsewhere in the region, equities also firmed, but advances were far more restrained, reflecting limited follow-through rather than renewed risk appetite.

The real focus has shifted decisively toward precious metals. Gold and Silver both pushed to new record highs, pulling attention away from equities and currencies alike. With positioning light and liquidity thin, the outsized moves in metals are more of a function of defensive demand amplified by year-end conditions.

That broader theme is visible across markets. Volatility remains elevated in pockets, but without the kind of cross-asset confirmation typically associated with durable trends. This pattern is likely to persist through the remainder of the year, with more meaningful repricing deferred until liquidity normalizes in early 2026.

In FX markets, Yen is attempting to stabilize against Dollar after a sharp selloff, but the effort remains tentative. There is little evidence of broad-based support for the currency, and gains have failed to spill over into crosses.

Japanese officials have stepped up verbal intervention, warning against rapid and one-sided currency moves. Top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura said authorities were concerned and ready to take “appropriate actions” against excessive moves, while Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara echoed concerns about speculative pressure and stressed the need for stability reflecting fundamentals.

Despite the firmer rhetoric, markets remain unconvinced. The key test will be whether Tokyo delivers concrete measures if USD/JPY pushes higher again and approaches the 160 area, or whether officials continue to rely solely on verbal warnings.

For now, Kiwi is the strongest currency on the day, followed by Aussie and Sterling. Dollar sits at the bottom of the table, trailed by Swiss Franc and Loonie, while Euro and Yen are holding middle ground amid the broader holiday drift.

In Asia, Nikkei rose 1.81%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.43%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.69%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.68%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.058 to 2.082.

Gold breaks above 4,400 as geopolitics ignite late-year surge, Silver nears 70

Gold surged to a fresh record high above 4,400 today, finally breaking out after weeks of subdued momentum. Though, Silver is still taking the lead, extending its powerful rally toward the psychologically important 70 level.

Thin holiday trading conditions amplified the reaction, but the underlying driver is a sharp escalation in geopolitical risk. Safe-haven demand accelerated after US President Donald Trump and senior aides refused to rule out military conflict with Venezuela, jolting markets that had largely discounted further escalation in Latin America.

Washington is now intensifying pressure on Venezuelan oil exports, tightening what traders increasingly see as a de facto blockade. Multiple vessels have reportedly been seized off Venezuela’s coast in international waters, with another currently being pursued. The move adds further strain on the government of Nicolás Maduro, heightening fears of miscalculation and retaliation.

At the same time, optimism around a diplomatic breakthrough in Ukraine fades. Markets are reassessing the likelihood of a durable ceasefire as negotiations drag on without tangible progress. Comments over the weekend suggested talks remain focused on aligning positions rather than finalizing concrete outcomes, reinforcing skepticism over near-term resolution of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Against that backdrop, Gold’s technical breakout arrived earlier than expected. The decisive break above 4,381.22 suggests that consolidation from that peak had already completed at 3,997.73. Near-term outlook will stay firmly bullish as long as 4,271.41 holds as support on any pullback.

Attention is now on whether price can push cleanly through the rising channel ceiling, a move that would signal further upside acceleration. If that ceiling gives way, the next target comes in at the 61.8% projection of the 3,267.90 to 4,381.22 advance from 3,997.73 at 4,685.76.

As for Silver, outlook will remain bullish as long as 64.43 support holds. 4H MACD suggests that it's likely now in an upside re-acceleration phase. Next target is 138.2% projection of 36.93 to 54.44 from 48.50 at 72.68. Break there will target 161.8% projection 76.83.

China holds lending rates, leans on fiscal push for growth

China kept benchmark loan prime rates unchanged for a seventh consecutive month, in line with expectations. The one-year loan prime rate was held at 3.0%, while the over-five-year LPR, a key reference for mortgage pricing, remained at 3.5%.

The decision reinforces the view that near-term monetary easing is not a priority. While lower LPRs would help reduce financing costs and support investment and consumption, authorities appear comfortable maintaining current settings as they assess the impact of earlier stimulus and targeted support measures across the economy.

Nevertheless, policy guidance from the Central Economic Work Conference earlier points to a broader strategic tilt. Officials signaled that China will pursue a more proactive fiscal stance alongside a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, suggesting growth support will increasingly come from government spending and structural measures rather than immediate rate cuts.

Fed’s Hammack downplays CPI drop, backs steady rates into Spring

In an interview with Beth Hammack published by the Wall Street Journal, the Cleveland Fed president argued there was no urgency for the Fed to adjust interest rates, saying policy could remain unchanged at 3.50–3.75% at least until Spring. Hammack said that timeframe would allow policymakers to better judge whether goods price inflation is truly easing as tariffs work their way through supply chains.

Hammack framed her outlook around patience rather than reaction. Her base case is for rates to stay at current levels "for some period of time", until there is clearer evidence that "either inflation is coming back down to target or the employment side is weakening more materially."

She was notably skeptical of last week’s November CPI report, which showed a sharp drop in headline inflation to 2.7% from 3.1%, with a similar decline in core inflation. Hammack said she takes the data “with a grain of salt,” pointing to distortions linked to Autumn’s government shutdown. Her own estimates place inflation closer to 2.9–3.0%.

While describing the current policy rate as roughly neutral, Hammack signaled she would actually prefer a slightly more restrictive stance to apply additional pressure on inflation.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 208.94; (P) 210.01; (R1) 212.03; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the upside for 61.8% projection of 184.35 to 205.30 from 199.04 at 211.98. Firm break there will extend current up trend to 100% projection at 219.99 next. On the downside, below 210.00 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 to 208.09 from 184.35 at 220.90. On the downside, break of 199.04 support is needed to indicate medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pullback.

Gold surged to a fresh record high above 4,400 today, finally breaking out after weeks of subdued momentum. Though, Silver is still taking the lead, extending its powerful rally toward the psychologically important 70 level.

Thin holiday trading conditions amplified the reaction, but the underlying driver is a sharp escalation in geopolitical risk. Safe-haven demand accelerated after US President Donald Trump and senior aides refused to rule out military conflict with Venezuela, jolting markets that had largely discounted further escalation in Latin America.

Washington is now intensifying pressure on Venezuelan oil exports, tightening what traders increasingly see as a de facto blockade. Multiple vessels have reportedly been seized off Venezuela’s coast in international waters, with another currently being pursued. The move adds further strain on the government of Nicolás Maduro, heightening fears of miscalculation and retaliation.

At the same time, optimism around a diplomatic breakthrough in Ukraine fades. Markets are reassessing the likelihood of a durable ceasefire as negotiations drag on without tangible progress. Comments over the weekend suggested talks remain focused on aligning positions rather than finalizing concrete outcomes, reinforcing skepticism over near-term resolution of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Against that backdrop, Gold’s technical breakout arrived earlier than expected. The decisive break above 4,381.22 suggests that consolidation from that peak had already completed at 3,997.73. Near-term outlook will stay firmly bullish as long as 4,271.41 holds as support on any pullback.

Attention is now on whether price can push cleanly through the rising channel ceiling, a move that would signal further upside acceleration. If that ceiling gives way, the next target comes in at the 61.8% projection of the 3,267.90 to 4,381.22 advance from 3,997.73 at 4,685.76.

As for Silver, outlook will remain bullish as long as 64.43 support holds. 4H MACD suggests that it's likely now in an upside re-acceleration phase. Next target is 138.2% projection of 36.93 to 54.44 from 48.50 at 72.68. Break there will target 161.8% projection 76.83.

China kept benchmark loan prime rates unchanged for a seventh consecutive month, in line with expectations. The one-year loan prime rate was held at 3.0%, while the over-five-year LPR, a key reference for mortgage pricing, remained at 3.5%.

The decision reinforces the view that near-term monetary easing is not a priority. While lower LPRs would help reduce financing costs and support investment and consumption, authorities appear comfortable maintaining current settings as they assess the impact of earlier stimulus and targeted support measures across the economy.

Nevertheless, policy guidance from the Central Economic Work Conference earlier points to a broader strategic tilt. Officials signaled that China will pursue a more proactive fiscal stance alongside a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, suggesting growth support will increasingly come from government spending and structural measures rather than immediate rate cuts.

In an interview with Beth Hammack published by the Wall Street Journal, the Cleveland Fed president argued there was no urgency for the Fed to adjust interest rates, saying policy could remain unchanged at 3.50–3.75% at least until Spring. Hammack said that timeframe would allow policymakers to better judge whether goods price inflation is truly easing as tariffs work their way through supply chains.

Hammack framed her outlook around patience rather than reaction. Her base case is for rates to stay at current levels "for some period of time", until there is clearer evidence that "either inflation is coming back down to target or the employment side is weakening more materially."

She was notably skeptical of last week’s November CPI report, which showed a sharp drop in headline inflation to 2.7% from 3.1%, with a similar decline in core inflation. Hammack said she takes the data “with a grain of salt,” pointing to distortions linked to Autumn’s government shutdown. Her own estimates place inflation closer to 2.9–3.0%.

While describing the current policy rate as roughly neutral, Hammack signaled she would actually prefer a slightly more restrictive stance to apply additional pressure on inflation.