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The Nasdaq 100 bounces as signs of a cooling US labour market eases concerns about a hawkish Fed. On the daily chart, a U-turn from mid-September’s sell-off point (12200) was disconcerting. With the price having retraced all the way back to the start (10620) of the November rally, the index could be vulnerable to renewed selling. A break below 10450 would confirm a dead cat bounce and cause a sustained bear market. 11130 is the first resistance and 11280 a key level to lift before buyers could turn the situation around.

The New Zealand dollar recovers thanks to an uptick in overall risk appetite. After the pair cleared the August high of 0.6460, sentiment favours the kiwi as it goes into a consolidation mode. A bounce off 0.6230 indicates that buyers have stepped in and a close above 0.6330 has prompted short-term sellers to cover their bets. 0.6300 has become a fresh support. The support-turned-resistance at 0.6400 is a major obstacle and its breach could help the bulls regain control and extend the rally beyond 0.6500 eventually.

The US dollar slipped after data showed a rise in initial claims for unemployment benefits. The price is testing last April’s low near 0.9200 after giving up all the gains from the breakout rally eight months ago. This means that the greenback is at a critical level as a deeper fall would cause a bearish reversal in the medium-term. On the hourly chart, the latest rebounds hit resistance at 0.9345, forming a double top in the process. 0.9290 would be the first hurdle to lift before a recovery could materialise.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 132.45; (P) 133.45; (R1) 134.03; More...

Break of 132.61 minor support argues that recovery form 130.55 has completed earlier than expected at 134.49. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 130.55 support. On the upside, above 134.49 should resume the rebound through near term channel resistance, towards 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 130.55 at 138.71.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 151.93 medium term could be just a corrective pattern to up trend from 102.58 (2021 low). Strong support from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07 and 55 week EMA (now at 131.76) will set the range for such corrective pattern. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 121.43.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9198; (P) 0.9246; (R1) 0.9282; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside for the moment. Decline from 1.0146 would target 61.8% projection of 1.0146 to 0.9355 from 0.9545 at 0.9056. For now, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9341 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8756 (2021 low) has completed at 1.0146, well ahead of 1.0342 long term resistance (2016 high). Based on current downside momentum, fall from 1.0146 might be a medium term down trend itself. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8756 to 1.0146 at 0.9287 will pave the way to 0.8756. In any case, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.9545 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2021; (P) 1.2050; (R1) 1.2085; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as range trading continues. On the downside, break of 1.1991 will resume the fall from 1.2445 to 55 day EMA (now at 1.1916). Firm break there will target 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.2445 at 1.1645. On the upside, break of 1.2240 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.2445 instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0351 medium term bottom is at least correcting whole down trend from 1.4248 (2021 high). Further rise is expected as long as 1.1644 resistance turned support holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.4248 to 1.0351 at 1.2759. Sustained break there will pave the way back to 1.4248. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 day EMA (now at 1.1916) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0618; (P) 1.0654; (R1) 1.0698; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as range trading continues. Further rally is expected as long as 1.0481 resistance turned support holds. Firm break of 61.8% projection of 0.9729 to 1.0481 from 1.0289 at 1.0754 will pave the way to 100% projection at 1.1041. However, firm break of 1.0481 will confirm short term topping and bring deeper fall to 1.0289 support.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.0609. Rejection by 1.0609 will suggest that price actions from 0.9534 medium term bottom are developing into a corrective pattern. Thus, medium bearishness is retained for another fall through 0.9534 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.0609 will raise the chance of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.1273.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6729; (P) 0.6758; (R1) 0.6806; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as range trading continues. On the downside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.6892 at 0.6616 will indicate rejection by 0.66871 fibonacci level. Deeper fall should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.6445. On the upside, break of 0.6892 will resume the rally from 0.6169.

In the bigger picture, it's still unsure if price actions from 0.6169 medium term bottom are developing into a corrective pattern or trend reversal. Rejection by 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.6169 at 0.6871 will maintain medium term bearishness for another fall through 0.6169 at a later stage. However, firm break of 0.6871, and sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6896) will raise the chance of the start of a bullish up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3519; (P) 1.3567; (R1) 1.3595; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 1.3704 will resume the rebound form 1.3224 to retest 1.3976 high. On the downside, break of 1.3483 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.3224 support zone.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3222 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.3976 at 1.3223) holds, larger up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low) is still expected to resume through 1.3976 high at a later stage. However, firm break of 1.3222/3 will indicate that the trend might have reversed. Deeper fall would be seen to next cluster support at 1.2726 (61.8% retracement at 1.2758).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8825; (P) 0.8842; (R1) 0.8862; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays on the upside despite some loss of upside momentum. Further rally would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.9276 to 0.8545 at 0.8997 and possibly above. In any case, further rally will remain in favor as long as 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 0.8783) holds.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.9267 is seen as a down leg inside long term range pattern. Deeper fall could be seen towards 0.8201/8338 support zone. But strong support should be seen there to bring reversal. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.8827 resistance will turn favor to the case that such decline is merely a correction in the up trend from 0.8201. That is, further rally would be seen at a later stage through 0.9267.