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The delayed retail sales report showed retail sales rising by 0.2% month-over-month (m/m) in September. Spending growth decelerated from a 0.6% m/m pace seen in each of the prior two months and was slightly weaker than consensus expectations which called for a 0.3% gain.

Sales of autos & parts declined by 0.2%, while sales at the gasoline stations rose 2% alongside higher prices at the pump. Sales at building materials and garden equipment & supplies stores edged higher (+0.2% m/m) but were down 2.4% from its year-ago level.

Sales in the "control group", which excludes the three volatile components mentioned above (i.e., autos, gasoline and building supplies) were little changed on the month (-0.1%). Significant declines were reported by online retailers (-0.7%), though that comes after a string of solid gains in three months prior.  Sales were also lower at clothing and accessories stores (-0.7%), electronics (-0.5%) and sporting goods (-2.5%). On the other hand, spending rose at miscellaneous store retailers (+2.9%) and furniture stores (+0.6%), with modest gains elsewhere.

Sales at bars and restaurants – the only service category in the report – had another strong month, rising by 0.7% and were up 6.7% from the year ago.

Key Implications

The delayed retail sales report showed some cooling in spending growth in September, following strong gains the two months prior. We will get a more complete picture of consumer spending in Q3 – including spending on services – on Dec 5th once data for consumer spending and income in September are released. At present, our tracking suggests a robust performance, with annualized growth around 3.3%. This marks an acceleration from the 2.5% pace seen in Q2 and represents a notable improvement compared to our earlier forecast.

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, spending growth is expected to slow during the holiday season, with an annualized rate of growth of around 1%. Consumer sentiment has weakened in recent months, as households have become more concerned about the softening labor market, impacts from the government shutdown, and lingering inflation worries. Both the Conference Board and University of Michigan measures of consumer confidence have been declining since August.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1499; (P) 1.1524; (R1) 1.1547; More…

EUR/USD recovers further today but stays well below 1.1655 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral and further decline is still in favor. On the downside, below 1.1490 and 1.1467 will resume the whole decline from 1.1917 high. Next targets are 1.1390, and then 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1917 at 1.1252.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top is likely in place at 1.1917, just ahead of 1.2 key psychological level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1328) holds, the up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2000 will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

Dollar weakened notably against Euro and Yen in early U.S. session, tracking another leg lower in Treasury yields as markets absorbed softer-than-expected September retail sales. While the report was backward-looking, it reinforced the direction of travel for consumption and added incremental weight to the view that demand is steadily cooling. PPI, meanwhile, was nor alarming.

The easing narrative continues to strengthen. Fed funds futures now imply nearly an 85% probability of a 25bps cut in December, with investors leaning heavily on the growing chorus of key Fed officials highlighting labor-market risks over inflation concerns. Dollar’s dip reflects that shift, though reactions across asset classes are uneven. Equity futures were broadly steady in pre-market trade.

Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that President Donald Trump is likely to announce his choice for the next Fed Chair before Christmas. He emphasized that the timeline ultimately rests with the president but described the selection process as “moving along very well.”

The shortlist remains broad. Candidates believed to be under consideration include NEC Director Kevin Hassett, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, BlackRock’s Rick Rieder, and current Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman. Bessent also hinted at a philosophical shift in how the administration views the Fed’s role. He suggested the central bank should “move back into the background” and play a less dominant role over the economy and markets than it has since the financial crisis.

In daily performance terms, Yen leads the majors, followed by Sterling and Euro. Kiwi is the weakest performer, trailed by Swiss Franc and Aussie, while Euro and Loonie sit in the middle of the pack.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.44%. DAX is up 0.71%. CAC is up 0.66%. UK 10-year yield is down -0.037 at 4.507. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.014 at 2.680. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.07%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.69%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.87%. Singapore Strait Times fell -0.24%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.016 to 1.804.

US retail sales miss at 0.2% mom growth in September

US retail sales rose 0.2% mom to USD 733.3B in September, falling short of the 0.4% forecast. Ex-auto sales performed slightly better at 0.3% mom, in line with expectations. Ex-gasoline sales were flat.

On a longer view, sales for the July–September period were still up 4.5% yoy, indicating that overall demand remains broadly supported.

US PPI rises 0.3% mom in September, core pressure eases

US PPI rose 0.3% mom and 2.7% yoy in September, matching expectations. The entire monthly advance came from goods, where prices jumped 0.9%, while services were flat.

PPI final demand less food, energy, and trade—edged up just 0.1% mom after a firmer 0.3% mom reading in August. On a 12-month basis, core rose 2.9%.

UK retail sentiment hits 17-year low ahead of Autumn Budget

UK retail sentiment deteriorated sharply in November, with the CBI’s quarterly Distributive Trades Survey showing confidence plunging to its worst level in 17 years. Firms expect their business situation to worsen over the coming quarter, with the index sliding to -35% from -10% in August.

Sales volumes also contracted at a faster pace, with the year-to-November balance dropping to -32% from -27% in October. Retailers expect the decline to moderate slightly next month, but the outlook remains bleak, pointing to another weak patch heading into the key holiday period. Even modest stabilization would leave activity at depressed levels by historical standards.

CBI Deputy Chief Economist Alpesh Paleja said retailers are still grappling with "a long spell of weak demand". He added that uncertainty surrounding the forthcoming Autumn Budget is causing businesses to delay investment and hiring decisions.

Two-way risks for AUD/NZD as RBNZ cut meets rising Australia CPI

AUD/NZD is shaping up for an active week, with two major catalysts—RBNZ’s rate announcement and Australia’s monthly CPI—set to hit on Wednesday.

RBNZ is widely expected to cut the OCR by 25bps to 2.25%. The NZIER Monetary Policy Shadow Board also endorsed a quarter-point reduction, arguing that although the economy is beginning to recover from a low base, excess capacity remains and a small additional cut is justified. Some members, however, warned against pushing stimulus too far, citing the risk of reigniting inflation—highlighting a cautious undercurrent within the broader policy debate.

On the medium-term path, the Shadow Board’s views clustered around an OCR of 2.25%–2.50% in a year, implying broad consensus that only limited easing will be required beyond November. While a minority still consider the risk of a larger, front-loaded cut—particularly given the long three-month gap until the next meeting—the Board’s recommendations may help stabilize expectations at a standard 25bps move.

In Australia, CPI is expected to rise again, from 3.5% to 3.6% for October, the fourth consecutive acceleration from June’s trough of 1.9%. A trend like this keeps the RBA firmly on hold for the remainder of the year, with any upside surprise diminishing the likelihood of a February rate cut. Sticky inflation would strengthen AUD by reinforcing Australia’s higher-for-longer stance relative to New Zealand’s easing cycle.

Technically, AUD/NZD carved out a short-term top at 1.1634 earlier this month and has since turned sideway. For now, it’s seen as in a brief near term correction. Break of 1.1570 minor resistance will solidify this case and bring retest of 11634 high.

However, on the downside, break of 1.1452 support will indicate that deeper decline is underway, as fall from 1.1634 could be correcting whole rise from 1.0724. But even so, downside should be contained by 1.1275 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.0724 to 1.1634 at 1.1286) or even higher at 55 D EMA (now at 1.1362).

There should be one more up leg through 1.1634 before the whole five-wave up trend from 1.0649 (April low) completes.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1499; (P) 1.1524; (R1) 1.1547; More…

EUR/USD recovers further today but stays well below 1.1655 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral and further decline is still in favor. On the downside, below 1.1490 and 1.1467 will resume the whole decline from 1.1917 high. Next targets are 1.1390, and then 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1917 at 1.1252.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top is likely in place at 1.1917, just ahead of 1.2 key psychological level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1328) holds, the up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2000 will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

US PPI rose 0.3% mom and 2.7% yoy in September, matching expectations. The entire monthly advance came from goods, where prices jumped 0.9%, while services were flat.

PPI final demand less food, energy, and trade—edged up just 0.1% mom after a firmer 0.3% mom reading in August. On a 12-month basis, core rose 2.9%.

Full US PPI release here.

US retail sales rose 0.2% mom to USD 733.3B in September, falling short of the 0.4% forecast. Ex-auto sales performed slightly better at 0.3% mom, in line with expectations. Ex-gasoline sales were flat.

On a longer view, sales for the July–September period were still up 4.5% yoy, indicating that overall demand remains broadly supported.

Full US retail sales release here.

UK retail sentiment deteriorated sharply in November, with the CBI’s quarterly Distributive Trades Survey showing confidence plunging to its worst level in 17 years. Firms expect their business situation to worsen over the coming quarter, with the index sliding to -35% from -10% in August.

Sales volumes also contracted at a faster pace, with the year-to-November balance dropping to -32% from -27% in October. Retailers expect the decline to moderate slightly next month, but the outlook remains bleak, pointing to another weak patch heading into the key holiday period. Even modest stabilization would leave activity at depressed levels by historical standards.

CBI Deputy Chief Economist Alpesh Paleja said retailers are still grappling with "a long spell of weak demand". He added that uncertainty surrounding the forthcoming Autumn Budget is causing businesses to delay investment and hiring decisions.

Full CBI Distributive Trades Survey release here.

The EUR/USD pair declined further on Tuesday, edging towards 1.1512. This downward movement persists despite a recent bout of US dollar weakness, which was triggered by a series of dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials that significantly increased the likelihood of an imminent rate cut.

The shift in sentiment was led by Governor Christopher Waller, who expressed support for a December cut, citing mounting risks to the labour market. Other officials, including Mary Daly and John Williams, echoed his stance. Waller also emphasised that policy decisions in 2026 will be contingent upon a large volume of delayed economic data, which agencies are now beginning to publish following the end of the government shutdown.

This coordinated messaging has caused a dramatic repricing in interest rate futures. The market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point cut in December has surged to 81%, a substantial increase from just 42% a week ago.

Despite this dovish tilt, the US dollar has demonstrated resilience. Investor focus is now shifting to a slew of upcoming data releases, including reports on retail sales, PPI, durable goods orders, and weekly jobless claims, which will provide a clearer picture of the US economy's health.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD is forming a tight consolidation range above the key support at 1.1510. The current structure suggests a high probability of a technical correction towards 1.1588, with the potential to extend this rebound to 1.1616. However, a decisive downward breakout from this range would signal the resumption of the primary downtrend, activating the next bearish impulse with an initial target at 1.1488. The MACD indicator technically supports this scenario. Its signal line is below zero but is pointing upwards, indicating building momentum for a short-term correction within the broader bearish environment.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair completed a growth wave to 1.1549 before declining to 1.1510, forming a consolidation range around 1.1530. An upward breakout could initiate another leg higher towards 1.1568, potentially extending to 1.1616. It is crucial to view any such strength as a corrective rally before the larger downtrend resumes, targeting a move back towards 1.1500. Conversely, a downward breakout would directly activate the bearish potential for a decline to 1.1488, a level that could mark the completion of the first phase of the third wave within the broader downward trend. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with the near-term corrective view, as its signal line has turned up from the 20 level, suggesting room for a bounce towards 80.

Conclusion

While dovish Fed rhetoric has injected volatility and capped the dollar's gains, the EUR/USD remains in a fragile technical position. The immediate outlook hinges on the pair's ability to hold the 1.1510 support. A break higher would trigger a corrective rally towards 1.1616, offering a potential selling opportunity. However, a failure to hold this level would open the path for a more pronounced decline towards 1.1488 and possibly lower, reaffirming the underlying bearish trend.

As the daily XAU/USD chart shows today, the ADX indicator is trending downwards following the extremely turbulent swings in October. This suggests:

→ gold price volatility is decreasing;

→ the market is finding balance around the psychological $4,000 level;

→ it recalls mid-July, when we noted a period of reduced volatility.

At that time, we:

→ drew an ascending channel;

→ observed that supply and demand were balancing each other, effectively reflecting all factors influencing the price.

Looking back, it can be noted that the market was in a consolidation phase (A) before the rally resumed (B) with renewed strength, as the price broke through the R1 resistance of the consolidation pattern.

It is reasonable to suggest a similar scenario may be occurring now, with the market in a new consolidation phase (C), and price fluctuations around the psychological $4,000 level reflecting new factors, including:

→ Anticipation of Fed action: Traders are hesitant to push prices to new highs ($4,400) without assurances of further monetary easing, yet are reluctant to sell below $3,900, as the global rate-cut cycle is not yet complete.

→ Dollar strength (DXY) at the end of October – early November.

→ Stabilisation of the geopolitical backdrop.

According to analysts from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and independent experts, gold may remain within a range of $3,950 – $4,150 until the end of 2025.

By analogy with the previous situation, we can expect R2 to hold, with bulls “taking a break” while gold drifts towards the lower boundary of the current channel.

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Key takeaways

• Dow Jones continues to outperform despite the AI-led sell-off, holding smaller losses than the Nasdaq 100 and maintaining relative strength supported by value-oriented sector weightings.
• Intermarket signals favour the value factor, with a re-steepening US yield curve and a bullish breakout in value ETF versus momentum ETF, reinforcing the case for medium-term DJIA outperformance over tech-heavy indices.
• The DJIA’s medium-term uptrend remains intact, with price still above its ascending channel support and momentum stabilising; holding 45,650/45,020 keeps the bullish structure intact, with resistances at 48,460 and 49,130/49,220.

The price actions of the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index (a proxy of the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures) have staged the expected rally and hit a fresh all-time high of 48,460 on 12 November 2025.

Thereafter, it faces an “indiscriminating sell-off” in the following week of 17 November 2025, triggered by a loop of negative cascading price actions on the Artificial Intelligence (AI) juggernaut, Nvidia, and other AI-related technology stocks over “bubble bursting” fears.

Despite the synchronized sell-off seen in the past week among the major US stock indices, Dow Jones (DJIA)’s month-to-date performance as of 24 November 2025 fared better than the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100, with a loss of -2.3% versus -3.8% (see Fig. 1).

Fig. 1: Month-to-day performances of global benchmark stock indices as of 24 Nov 2025 (Source: MacroMicro)

Also, intermarket and relative strength analyses of relevant factors (smart beta) exchange-traded funds continue to point to potential outperformance of the Dow Jones (DJIA) over the mega-cap technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 in the medium-term horizon (multi-week)

Let’s unravel.

Value factor outperformance and re-steepening of the US Treasury yield

Fig. 2: US Wall Street 30 CFD Index, momentum, value factors, US Treasury yield curve major trends as of 25 Nov 2025 (Source: TradingView)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average tends to be viewed as a more “value-oriented” barometer benchmark US stock index due to its higher weightage of value-related sectors, such as Financials, over the Nasdaq 100; the Financials sector has a weightage of 27% in the DJIA.

One of the key drivers that allows the DJIA to stage a rally to its recent all-time high on 12 November 2025 is the re-steepening of the US Treasury yield curve (10-year minus 2-year) from 0.48% on 29 October 2025 to 0.53% on 7 November 2025, which, in turn, also reinforced the bullish breakout of the ratio chart of the S&P 500 Enhanced Value ETF (35% weightage in Financials)/S&P 500 ETF (see Fig. 2).

At the same time, the ratio chart of the S&P 500 Momentum ETF (36% weightage in Information Technology)/S&P 500 ETF staged a bearish breakdown on 3 November 2025.

The current re-steepening of the US Treasury yield curve, coupled with a major bullish breakout seen on the ratio chart of S&P 500 Enhanced Value ETF (35% weightage in Financials)/S&P 500 ETF (which indicates the potential outperformance of the value factor in the US stock market) is likely to support a medium-term outperformance of the Dow Jones (DJIA) over the Nasdaq 100.

The Dow Jones (DJIA) continues to oscillate within a medium-term ascending channel

Fig. 3: US Wall Street 30 CFD Index medium-term trend as of 25 Nov 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Despite the recent price action breakdown of the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, the current price level of 46,392 at the time of writing is still holding above its medium-term ascending channel support in place since the 23 May 2025 low of 41,156 (see Fig. 3).

In addition, the daily RSI momentum indicator has just managed to bounce off a key horizontal support at the 35 level, indicating that downside momentum has started to wane.

Maintain a bullish bias over the medium-term horizon with key medium-term pivotal support zone at 45,650/45,020. A clearance above the 47,100 intermediate resistance is likely to kickstart a new potential bullish implusive up move sequence to retest the 48,460 current all-time high before the next medium-term resistance comes in at 49,130/49,220 (also a Fibonacci extension cluster).

However, a break below 45,020 invalidates the recovery scenario for an extension of the medium-term correction towards the 43,935 long-term pivotal support (also the 200-day moving average).

Commodity-linked currencies have moved into a stabilisation phase after a prolonged decline. Last week, pressure on the AUD and NZD eased slightly, and the pace of the downturn slowed. AUD/USD and NZD/USD are consolidating near major support levels — their yearly lows — where the market is weighing the chances of a short-term rebound against the potential for renewed downside if incoming data disappoints. Investors are cautious ahead of tomorrow’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting and today’s US inflation release, both of which are likely to set the tone for further movement.

Market sentiment remains mixed. On the one hand, risk appetite is supported by reports of progress in US–China trade consultations, although persistent tariff risks continue to limit demand for high-yielding assets. On the other hand, soft US business activity figures and weak industrial data are fuelling expectations that upcoming inflation reports may confirm slowing price pressures. This makes the market particularly sensitive to today’s releases, which may include additional surprises given the impact of the recent shutdown.

AUD/USD

After failing to reach this year’s August lows, AUD/USD reversed upwards, forming a “piercing line” pattern on the daily timeframe. However, the pattern’s follow-through remains weak, with buyers unable to hold above the key 0.6470–0.6500 range. A break above 0.6500 could trigger a corrective rise towards 0.6550–0.6580. A move below last week’s low may resume the medium-term downtrend.

Key events for AUD/USD:

• Today at 16:30 (GMT+3): US core retail sales
• Today at 16:30 (GMT+3): US Producer Price Index (PPI)
• Tomorrow at 03:30 (GMT+3): Australia Consumer Price Index (CPI)

NZD/USD

NZD/USD is trading near 0.5600, slightly above the yearly lows of 0.5490–0.5570. If sentiment deteriorates and the RBNZ cuts rates again, the pair may test and break new lows for the year. If it holds above 0.5600, a corrective rise towards 0.5690–0.5740 is possible.

Key events for NZD/USD:

• Today at 18:00 (GMT+3): US CB Consumer Confidence
• Tomorrow at 04:00 (GMT+3): Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate decision
• Tomorrow at 05:00 (GMT+3): RBNZ press conference

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.