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AUDUSD: ⬆️ Buy

•  AUDUSD reversed from support area
• Likely to rise to resistance level 0.6500

AUDUSD currency pair recently reversed from support area between the key support level 0.6420 (which has been reversing the price from May) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.

This support area was further strengthened by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward ABC correction B from April.

Given the clear daily uptrend, AUDUSD currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 0.6500.

The Labour government is set to release a crucial budget plan on November 26. Instead of announcing new spending, the main goal is to prove that the government is being careful with money to keep financial markets stable. Chancellor Rachel Reeves faces a tough challenge as she tries to stick to the strict financial rules she created for herself. Her plan focuses on three main priorities: reducing the time people wait for healthcare (NHS), paying down the country's debt, and lowering the cost of living for everyone.

The Immediate Fiscal Challenge and the OBR Downgrade

The economic context necessitates aggressive action. The pressure begins with the widely anticipated forecast revision by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which publishes its updated economic and public finances outlook concurrently with the Budget statement.

Experts expect the OBR to admit that its previous growth predictions were too optimistic, which will likely reveal a hole in the government’s finances of £20 to £30 billion. This problem is made worse by the fact that the government has already borrowed nearly £10 billion more this year than originally planned.

Market participants are watching closely; if the government cannot prove it has a credible plan to fix this gap and build a safety cushion, investors will lose trust. This loss of confidence would make it much more expensive for the UK to borrow money, as it would suggest the government is reacting to a crisis rather than following a solid, long-term strategy.

Policy Watchlist: The Mechanics of Stealth and Wealth Taxation

Labour's fiscal strategy is heavily constrained by explicit manifesto pledges ruling out any increases to the rates of Income Tax (basic, higher, or additional), National Insurance, or VAT, alongside a commitment to cap Corporation Tax at 25%. To close the substantial fiscal gap, estimated to require gross revenue generation approaching £30–40 billion (when accounting for non-negotiable spending), the Chancellor is compelled to employ a strategy focused on "stealth" taxes and targeted measures on wealth.

The Engine of Revenue: Stealth Taxation via Fiscal Drag

The main way the government plans to raise this money is by freezing the income levels at which people start paying tax. Even though official tax rates aren't changing, rising wages and inflation (which was 3.6% in October 2025) mean that more people will be pushed into higher tax brackets.

This process, known as "fiscal drag," is expected to generate a massive £42.9 billion by 2027 and will increase the number of higher-rate taxpayers from four million to over ten million. While this helps the government keep its election promises, economists worry it might discourage people from working harder or saving money.

Targeted Wealth Measures and Expenditure Commitments

Beyond these stealth measures, the budget is expected to target assets and property, which the government views as undertaxed. We may see higher taxes on profits from selling assets (Capital Gains Tax), stricter rules on inheritance and tax-free gifts, and higher taxes on expensive homes, potentially including a "mansion tax" for properties worth over £2 million.

This extra money is needed to pay for expensive commitments, such as increasing the State Pension by over £550 a year and lifting the cap on benefits for larger families. To make the numbers work, the Chancellor may also introduce smaller charges, such as a tax per mile for electric vehicle drivers and reduced tax perks for high earners paying into pensions.

Created by Zain Vawda, Data from LSEG, ING

Market Implications for the GBP and UK Gilts

The value of the British Pound is currently being pulled in two directions. On one side, a solid government budget would boost trust and help the currency; on the other, if the Bank of England cuts interest rates quickly, the currency usually weakens.

Right now, the Pound is trading around 1.31 against the US dollar because investors have already accounted for most of the uncertainty. If the Chancellor presents a strong and believable financial plan, the Pound could stabilize or rise slightly. However, if the plan is weak or hurts economic growth, investors might sell off the Pound. For the currency to truly gain value, the trust created by a good budget must be strong enough to overcome the natural dip caused by falling interest rates.

GBP/USD Daily Chart, November 25, 2025

Source: TradingView

Government Bonds (Gilts) and Political Risk

The market for UK government bonds, known as "Gilts," is in a risky position. Part of this is due to global trends, such as huge spending on AI and defense, which pushes long-term interest rates up worldwide.

However, the biggest specific threat to the UK is domestic politics. If the current government looks unstable or weak in the polls, investors worry that a new leader might take over and start borrowing recklessly. Since the UK already plans to sell nearly £300 billion in bonds for the 2025-26 period, investors are nervous. If they feel the political situation is shaky, they will demand higher returns (yields) to lend their money, making it more expensive for the government to borrow.

The Solution: A Strong Budget A strict and credible budget is the best way to calm the bond market. If the government proves it can manage its money well, the Bank of England will feel safe enough to cut interest rates faster and deeper. With inflation at 3.6% and the current interest rate at 4.00%, a tight budget helps the central bank lower borrowing costs for everyone.

This strategy is expected to balance the economy: short-term rates will fall as the Bank of England eases its policies, while long-term rates will stabilize because investors will finally trust the government's financial plan.

Currently trading at $4,118 per troy ounce, gold has started the week on an encouraging note, finding support in Monday’s session.

Rallying by staggering 1.70% in yesterday’s trading, which, albeit by recent accounts, seems to be perfectly normal, dovish comments made by Fed Williams last week have offered a new lease of life to current gold upside.

Join me as I attempt to answer the question: What’s next for gold?

Gold (XAU/USD): Key takeaways 25/11/2025

• Dovish comments from John Williams, President & CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, have recently challenged an increasingly hawkish narrative from the Fed, with rate cut probabilities spiking ahead of the December decision and bolstering gold pricing
• In the face of a stronger dollar, which currently trades at three-month highs, gold has found support at the 20-day moving average and will look to target $4,200 in the short term
• Gold continues to benefit from uncertainty created by the government shutdown, in no small part thanks to a perceived decline in central bank efficacy owing to the lack of data, which otherwise would be relied on to make monetary policy decisions

Gold (XAU/USD): At the mercy of the Federal Reserve

Granted, the above sounds like the title of a James Bond film, but the point remains:

The health of the current gold rally, and indeed much of the US equity markets, is at the mercy of the Federal Reserve and how votes are cast on December 10th

Gold (XAU/USD) vs Dollar Strength Index (DXY), D1, OANDA & TVC, TradingView, 25/11/2025

It was less than a week ago that I wrote an increasingly hawkish Fed had caused gold price to settle at $4,077, mainly on the back of October’s FOMC Minutes, which revealed “strongly differing views” amongst policymakers, as well as comments from Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve Philip Jefferson to “proceed slowly” with the current easing cycle.

The difference a week can make in the markets, however, continues to amaze me.

If you would, let’s discuss some of the macroeconomic themes within the precious metals markets, with special attention to current predictions for the December Fed meeting.

Gold (XAU/USD): Fundamental Analysis 25/11/2025

Fed Chair Williams shocks markets with dovish commentary

I won’t bury the lead - the latest U-turn in relation to Federal Reserve monetary policy has not offered newfound support, but represents the most significant of macroeconomic themes within precious metal markets.

Speaking last Friday at the Central Bank of Chile Centennial Conference in Santiago, Fed Williams offered the following commentary, to the surprise of much of the markets:

"Looking ahead, it is imperative to restore inflation to our 2 percent longer-run goal on a sustained basis. It is equally important to do so without creating undue risks to our maximum employment goal. I view monetary policy as being modestly restrictive, although somewhat less so than before our recent actions.

Therefore, I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate to move the stance of policy closer to the range of neutral, thereby maintaining the balance between the achievement of our two goals.

My policy views will, as always, be based on the evolution of the totality of the data, the economic outlook, and the balance of risks to the achievement of our maximum employment and price stability goals"

John Williams, President & CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, speaking at the Central Bank of Chile Centennial Conference, Santiago, Chile

In a nutshell, the above commentary presented a dovish perspective on the upcoming decision, in contrast to previously hawkish comments that, according to the CME FedWatch tool, had previously had markets predicting rates would be maintained at odds of over 70%.

CME FedWatch, 25/11/2025

Predictably, William’s words have reignited hope for a rate cut in December, which, according to some sources, now trades at an ~80% probability. Naturally, this bodes well for precious metals, which benefit from lower interest rates, as the opportunity cost of holding gold compared to dollars becomes lower.

This would go some way to explaining the recent support found in gold bullion pricing.

It’s worth mentioning that, as per my previous commentary, October’s FOMC Minutes highlighted a split room amongst policymakers, which, by definition, would mean that a few changes of opinion could sway the vote in December.

As a personal aside, I cannot remember a time when a Fed meeting has been so contested in terms of dovish and bearish push and pull, similarly to how we’ve seen for the upcoming meeting - never a dull moment.

I’ll briefly touch on a few remaining points, since the fundamental outlook remains essentially unchanged since the last time we spoke.

Gold undeterred by dollar upside

It was VP of NNFX who once said that gold drives the bus, and having received these words in my formative years as a trader, they have stuck with me throughout.

They are especially relevant to recent events, however, with dollar and gold prices currently rallying alongside each other.

While I won’t pretend that there has been an astronomical upside for either in the past few days or so, both trade substantially higher since mid-September.

Logically, of course, there is at least some level of negative correlation between gold and dollar pricing, with falling USD value across 2025 offering some upside to gold, being priced typically in USD.

With that said, gold drives the bus, meaning that gold can rally despite the best efforts of a stronger dollar.

Albeit perhaps not to the same extent as years past, the dollar still maintains some safe-haven appeal, with the uncertainty of delayed data releases, courtesy of the longest US government shutdown in history, adding to the risk premium.

The same can be said for gold, of course, which can explain, at least in part, why both have rallied in recent memory.

What I mean to say is that gold and the US dollar often share common ground in terms of economic tailwinds that often cause pricing to rally, especially in risk-off markets

As such, a downgrade in the dollar’s safe-haven appeal directly benefits gold, as seen this year, with both assets competing for a finite amount of safe-haven demand.

Let’s progress into some market technicals to wrap up, alongside some price levels to watching.

XAU/USD: Technical Analysis 25/11/2025

XAU/USD: Daily (D1) chart analysis:

Gold (XAU/USD), D1, OANDA, TradingView, 25/11/2025

In the spirit of honesty, much of my analysis remains unchanged from my previous coverage, as all price targets and support levels remain intact.

With that said, fair warning: market expectations for the upcoming Fed meeting could invalidate any level of technical analysis should another narrative shift occur.

Considering how volatile the run-in to the December meeting has been, traders would be well-advised to plan their exits carefully.

Now that my observations to generic trading advice is out of the way, let me start by saying that gold remains very well-supported on a technical basis. There has been little to question the ongoing rally, even though it has fallen substantially from all-time highs

What’s important is that price seems to have found support around $4,050, and should price continue upwards, this would suggest that we remain in uptrend territory, forming a higher low.

The next test will of course be the previous highs, as in, the higher high part, to fully confirm.

Should this happen, and considering the firm fundamental footing also, we could make another bid for all-time highs.

With that said, and if I were a betting man, all-time highs are only likely to be achieved in the next two weeks before volume begins to wane courtesy of holiday festivities.

For this to happen in two weeks alone would be a stretch, so I’d be looking at early 2025 at best for record pricing. Just my two pence.

Price targets and support/resistance levels:

• Price target/Resistance #1 - $4,240 - Previous support/resistance
• Price target/Resistance #2 - $4,381 - All-time highs
• Support #1 - $4,056 - 20-Period SMA
• Support #2 - $4,000 - Key psychological level
• Support #3 - $3,889 - Swing low

• The US economy is strong, thanks to spending on AI.
• The Fed is easing interest rates while tightening forecasts, but the Trump factor has not yet played out.

A strong economy equals a strong currency. The US dollar remains stable even as the probability of a Fed rate cut in December rises to 81%. A leading indicator from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta signals an acceleration in gross domestic product from 3.8% in the second quarter to 4.2% in the third quarter. The BLS is set to release GDP data for July-September before Christmas. This is likely to be a gift to both the White House and all Americans.

Artificial intelligence is behind the strength of the US economy. According to Deutsche Bank, private investment, excluding AI, is comparable to 2019. If data centres are excluded, commercial construction has virtually stalled. Bank of America estimates that the capital expenditure of four companies, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta Platforms will increase from $228 billion to $344 billion in 2025. This is equivalent to 1.1% of GDP.

At the same time, rising tech stocks are increasing the wealth of Americans, driving consumer spending and accelerating the economy. Can the United States stand up to Europe? Judging by the disappointing statistics on the business climate in Germany, investors are sceptical about the speed of Friedrich Merz’s fiscal stimulus measures.

As for the recovery of expectations for a rate cut in December, the stability of the US dollar is understandable. In September and October, the dollar index rose after the rate cut in September, as the FOMC reduced the number of expected cuts in its updated forecasts.

History risks repeating itself for the third time in December. Jerome Powell will find a delicate compromise between the Fed’s hawks and doves, cutting rates but sending an even stronger signal of at least a pause in the near term. The dollar’s dynamics are influenced by expectations for the key rate over the next two years, and investors often look beyond a single meeting.

If everything depended solely on the Fed, it would be easier for investors. However, there is the Trump factor in the markets. The US president will not abandon his attempts to weaken the US dollar. There is also the economy, a factor that is only beginning to reveal itself.

Markets

European markets weren’t really heading anywhere until ABC News reported on Ukraine agreeing to terms of a peace deal according to a US official: “The Ukrainians have agreed to the peace deal. There are some minor details to be sorted out”. Headlines followed talks between the US and Ukraine in Geneva this weekend and between the US and Russia currently in Abu Dhabi. Ukrainian president Zelenskiy later indicated that peace plan talks with the US are continuing, implicitly ruling out any deal. Also from the Russian side, there’s no confirmation whatsoever over agreement on the current 19-point US-Ukrainian solution. Markets nevertheless loved to err on the positive side following the headlines, pushing the EuroStoxx 50 currently 0.7% higher. The dollar lost a few ticks with the trade-weighted greenback switching sides around the 100-barrier after testing 100.25 resistance earlier this morning. EUR/USD tries to make way above 1.1550. CE currencies spiked higher with EUR/HUF for example moving to 381 for the first time since January 2024 and EUR/PLN testing the downside of the narrow sideways trading range in place since April at 4.22. Brent crude prices dipped from $63/b to $62 and the Dutch TTF gas contract holds below €30/MWh.

Attention switched to US eco data following the Ukrainian intermezzo with delayed September US retail sales and produces prices. Data for both reports were gathered before the start of the US government shutdown, but not yet processed. The former disappointed (mainly pullback in categories with strong Summer spending) while the latter printed near consensus. Headline retail sales growth slowed from 0.6% M/M in August (strong back-to-school shopping season) to 0.2% in September (vs +0.4% expected). Core retail sales, excluding auto and gas, disappointed at 0.1% (vs +0.3% consensus) with the retail sales control group – core sales also excluding food services and building materials and a proxy for consumption in GDP calculations – even falling by 0.1% M/M (vs +0.3% forecast). Despite the lower September numbers, real consumer spending was robust over Q3, expected at 3.2% annualized (vs +2.5% Q/Qa in Q2). Producer prices increased by 0.3% M/M with the annual number stabilizing at 2.7% Y/Y. Core PPI was more modest at 0.1% M/M and 2.6% Y/Y (from 2.9% Y/Y). US Treasury yields showed some volatility around the release but are virtually flat on the day. After a two-day rebound, a lot of attention goes to US stock markets today with the main question being whether they can escape a more profound setback and sliding into a sell-on-upticks pattern. The Nasdaq is currently 1% lower with Nvidia leading the pack on news that Meta Platforms is in discussions to use Google chips in data centers in 2027 which might challenge Nvidia’s dominant market position for inference chips.

News & Views

The November Distributive Trades survey of the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) showed a further deterioration both for reported sales and sentiment in the retail sector as the country prepares for the announcement of the new budget tomorrow. The subindex of retailing volumes declined from -27 to -32. Sales for this time of the year dropped (-20 from -15). The total distribution volumes index also fell from -30 to -35. On a positive note, expected retail sales volumes for next month improved slightly from -39 to -34. In a separate quarterly survey, business reported sentiment in the sector to have declined from -10 in August to -35 in November, the lowest level since Q3 2008. The quarterly survey also showed that uncertainty dampens both reported (-19 from -14) and expected (-23 from -19) employment. Investment intentions stay at a low -42. Retail price indicators eased slightly from previous quarter.

Polish retail sales rose by 6.7% M/M and 5.4% Y/Y in real terms in October, beating consensus. YTD sales were 4.3% higher compared to the same period last year. Both sales in a monthly and a yearly perspective showed significant rises across several categories. Other October data were a bit mixed yesterday with gross wages rising a softer than expected 1.3% M/M and 6.6% Y/Y. Employment also declined slightly (-0.1% M/M and -0.8% Y/Y). At the same industrial output data were solid (5.4% M/M and 3.2% Y/Y). Polish yields over the previous days declined substantially further (2-y swap -15 bps since last Thursday) as markets ponder the chances of additional easing at the December meeting or early next year. The NBP cut its policy rate early November by 25 bps to 4.25%.

US Conference Board Consumer Confidence fell sharply in November, dropping from 95.5 to 88.7 and undershooting expectations of 93.4. Both major components weakened: Present Situation Index slipped -4.3 points to 126.9, while Expectations Index fell -8.6 points to 63.2. Crucially, the Expectations Index has now remained below the recession-signaling threshold of 80 for ten straight months.

The Conference Board warned that the deterioration was broad-based. Chief Economist Dana Peterson noted that confidence “tumbled… to its second lowest level since April” after months of sideways movement. All five components of the index either weakened or remained at depressed levels, suggesting that consumers are increasingly concerned about future economic conditions.

Full US consumer confidence release here.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.46; (P) 156.82; (R1) 157.30; More...

USD/JPY's pullback from 157.88 extends lower today but stays well above 154.47 resistance turned support. Intraday bias remains neutral and further rally is expected. On the upside, break of 157.88 will resume the whole rally from 139.87, and target 161.8% projection of 146.58 to 153.26 from 149.37 at 160.17.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) has completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. Decisive break of 158.85 structural resistance will solidify this bullish case and target 161.94 for confirmation. On the downside, break of 150.90 resistance turned support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective range pattern with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8063; (P) 0.8082; (R1) 0.8104; More…

A temporary top should be in place at 0.8101 in USD/CHF, and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Current rise from 0.7877 is still seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 0.7828 low. Above 0.8101 will target 0.8123 resistance, and then 138.2% projection of 0.7828 to 0.8075 from 0.7877 at 0.8218. However, sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.8011) will bring deeper fall back to 0.7877 support instead.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3083; (P) 1.3101; (R1) 1.3121; More...

GBP/USD rebounds notably today but stays in range of 1.3008/3247, and intraday bias remains neutral. With 1.3247 support turned resistance intact, further decline is expected. On the downside, break of 1.3008 will resume the fall from 1.3725 to 138.2% projection of 1.3787 to 1.3140 from 1.3725 at 1.2831. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.3247 will suggest that fall from 1.3787 has completed as a corrective move already.

In the bigger picture, the break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3184) is taken as the first sign that corrective rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) has completed. Decisive break of trend line support (now at 1.2760) will solidify this case and target 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3787 at 1.2474 next. Meanwhile, in case of another rise, strong resistance should emerge below 1.4248 (2021 high) to cap upside to preserve the long term down trend.