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The pair fell one full figure and hit the lowest in almost one month after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates by 25 basis points, as expected, but signaled pause that lifted kiwi dollar.

Fresh weakness extended below Nov 18 higher low at 1.1443, with sustained break here to generate fresh signal on completion of bearish failure swing and keep the downside in focus.

The structure on daily chart weakened as falling 14-d momentum broke into negative territory and converging 10/20DMA’s are about to form bear-cross.

On the other hand, quick bounce from the session low (1.1406, slightly below Fibo 61.8% of 1.1283/1.1636 upleg), signals that bears face headwinds at pivotal 1.1400 zone, but bearish hourly studies add to scenario of limited upticks providing better levels to re-enter bearish market.

The notion is supported by hotter than expected Australia’s October inflation which is likely to increase pressure on RBA and sour the sentiment of Aussie dollar.

Daily close below broken Fibo 50% (1.1460) is required to keep near-term action biased lower and risk renewed attack at 1.1400 zone, violation of which would expose key supports at 1.1316/1.1286 (top of ascending daily cloud/Oct 22 higher low).

Res: 1.1460; 1.1500; 1.1527; 1.1553.
Sup: 1.1418; 1.1400; 1.1367; 1.1316.

Market Overview

The crypto market cap rose 0.6% to $3.02T, continuing its retreat from the local low reached on Friday. Once again, the stock market pulled cryptocurrencies up, but this time the positive sentiment was only enough for a slight increase to the level of 24 hours ago, with a decline at the end of Tuesday.

Bitcoin has been trading around $87K for the last three days. The recovery rebound has lost momentum, but the bears have not taken active action either, due to increased risk appetite in global markets and a moderate weakening of the dollar, which is an ideal breeding ground for cryptocurrencies. We continue to note the weakness of cryptos, given the favourable investment environment, which forces us to look for reasons in longer-term processes, such as profit-taking after the rapid growth of the last two years.

News Background

The fall in Bitcoin is linked to the reaction of institutional investors on Wall Street, who were unprepared for the sharp fluctuations in the asset, said Anthony Pompliano, founder of Pomp Investments. The situation is exacerbated by the end of the year: fund managers are concerned about bonuses and are selling assets they have begun to doubt.

According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s risk-return ratio has become the most attractive since mid-2023. This does not guarantee that the bottom has been reached, but it does indicate high potential in the future.

In the first quarter of 2026, the first cryptocurrency may remain in the $82K-$90K range without sharp volatility, Citigroup bank suggested. After the October collapse of cryptocurrencies, investors’ appetite for risk has sharply declined.

According to The Block Data, the ratio of long and short positions on Bitcoin among major players on Binance exceeded 3.8, the highest figure in more than three years.

JPMorgan has opened sales of Strategy (MSTR) shares, according to TV presenter Max Keiser, but there has been no official confirmation of this. In October, the bank announced the risks of MSTR being excluded from key MSCI stock indices, which could lead to an outflow of $2.8 billion.

According to Cointab, 73% of public companies that have invested in Bitcoin have liquidity problems, and 39% have liabilities that exceed the value of their accumulated crypto assets.

The GBP/USD pair extended its gains, reaching 1.3189, as investors await details of the UK budget, to be presented today, 26 November. All attention is on Chancellor Rachel Reeves and her strategy to close the fiscal deficit while adhering to the government's self-imposed budgetary rules. This challenge requires finding tens of billions of pounds in savings or revenue. Market volatility has been stoked by reports suggesting the government may avoid immediate tax increases.

The fiscal backdrop is deteriorating. According to media reports, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is preparing to lower its growth forecasts for 2026 and beyond. This revision could widen the budget deficit by £20–30 billion, intensifying the long-term pressure for tax rises.

Recent macroeconomic data underscores the economy's fragility. Public sector borrowing remains at record highs outside of the pandemic period, business activity is slowing, retail sales have contracted sharply, and consumer confidence is waning.

Amid this weak economic landscape, October's inflation reading fell to 3.6%, solidifying expectations for monetary policy easing. Markets are now pricing in an 80% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Bank of England in December.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD broke decisively above 1.3116, completing a corrective wave structure to 1.3210. We now anticipate a pullback to retest the 1.3116 level from above. Following this retest, a final leg of the correction could push the pair towards 1.3215.

Once this corrective phase is complete, the primary downtrend is expected to resume. The next key target for the subsequent wave of selling is at 1.2911. The MACD indicator supports this view; its signal line is above zero and pointing upwards, confirming the current corrective strength is likely a prelude to a new downtrend.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair broke upwards from a pronounced consolidation range around 1.3123, reaching its initial target at 1.3210. A decline to retest 1.3123 is now expected. This should be followed by a final upward push to 1.3215, at which point the corrective potential is likely to be exhausted.

We then forecast the start of a fifth and typically powerful wave of decline, targeting 1.2911. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario. Its signal line is in overbought territory above 80 and is turning downwards, signalling that the current upward momentum is losing steam.

Conclusion

The pound's strength is fragile, driven by budget speculation rather than a shift in fundamentals. The pre-budget rally is viewed as a corrective bounce within a broader bearish trend. Technically, the pair is approaching a critical resistance zone near 1.3215. We anticipate this level will cap gains and present a selling opportunity, paving the way for a resumption of the downtrend with an initial target at 1.2911. The budget details and the BoE's subsequent December meeting will be key determinants of the pound's medium-term direction.

EUR/USD is attempting a recovery wave from the 1.1500 zone. USD/CHF climbed higher above 0.8050 and might correct some gains.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today

• The Euro declined toward 1.1500 before it started a recovery wave against the US Dollar.
•  There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1530 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/CHF climbed higher above 0.8050 and 0.8080 before it faced hurdles.
•  There was a break below a bullish trend line with support at 0.8085 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair extended the decline below 1.1550. The Euro even declined below 1.1520 before the bulls appeared against the US Dollar.

The pair tested 1.1490 and recently started a recovery wave. There was a move above 1.1520 and 1.1550. The pair climbed above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1653 swing high to the 1.1491 low.

More importantly, there was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1530. The pair is now trading above 1.1575 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Immediate hurdle on the EUR/USD chart is near the 61.8% Fib retracement at 1.1590.

The first key breakout zone sits at 1.1615. An upside break above 1.1615 might send the pair toward 1.1655. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 1.1700 zone. If there is a fresh decline, the pair might find bids near 1.1550.

The next major support is 1.1540. A downside break below 1.1540 could send the pair toward 1.1510. Any more losses might send the pair to 1.1490.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of USD/CHF at FXOpen, the pair started a decent increase from 0.7940. The US Dollar climbed above the 0.8000 handle against the Swiss Franc.

The bulls were able to pump the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 0.8050. Finally, the pair tested 0.8100. A high was formed near 0.8101 and the pair is now consolidating gains. The pair dipped below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.7937 swing low to the 0.8101 high.

Besides, there was a break below a bullish trend line at 0.8085. On the downside, immediate support on the USD/CHF chart is near 0.8040. The first key area of interest might be near the 50% Fib retracement at 0.8020.

A downside break below 0.8020 might call for a drop to 0.7975. Any more losses may possibly open the doors for a move toward 0.7940.

On the upside, the pair could struggle near 0.8080. The first major barrier for bulls is 0.8100. If there is a clear break above 0.8100 and the RSI climbs above 50, the pair could start another increase. In the stated case, it could test 0.8150.

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As the chart shows, the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) has rebounded from its roughly 2.5-month low recorded on 21 November. At that point, bearish sentiment was driven by fears of an “AI bubble”, expectations of higher interest rates, and other news-related pressures.

The recovery from that level was strong — in less than a week the index gained around 5.3%, signalling robust demand. This not only offsets last week’s concerns but also injects optimism into the near-term outlook.

Technical Analysis of the Nasdaq 100 Chart

Examining recent price action in the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen), we can outline an ascending channel in which:

→ the median line acted as support until mid-November;

→ support at the lower boundary helped form the 21 November low.

From the perspective of buying pressure:

→ The November dip appears to be an intermediate correction within a broader emerging uptrend.

→ The brief move below the psychological 24k level (where the notable September and October lows lie) resembles a Liquidity Grab pattern, suggesting so-called Smart Money may have used sellers’ liquidity to build long positions — a sign of bullish intent.

From the perspective of selling pressure:

→ the market remains within a corrective structure (highlighted in red);

→ today, the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) is trading near 25,265, a level that acted as resistance on 17–20 November.

It is possible that trading near the channel’s median line will encourage a balance between buying and selling forces — just as market participants head off to celebrate Thanksgiving.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Markets

There was action on all fronts yesterday. Let’s start with geopolitics. Ukrainian President Zelensky said that negotiations on a truce remained ongoing after headlines that Ukraine agreed to the US-brokered peace deal. Markets nevertheless reacted positively (equity, EUR, CE FX up; gas/oil down), embracing the progress made since high-level Geneva talks over the weekend. The past two days, the US was also involved with Russian officials in Abu Dhabi, working to a meeting between US chief negotiator Witkoff and his team and Russian President Putin in Moscow likely next week. The Ukraine-Russia situation was one of the topics touched on during a phone call between US President Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping who seem back on speaking terms after extending the trade truce by a year at the end of October. Next came (US) eco data with delayed September retail sales and producer prices and up-to-date November Richmond Fed manufacturing index (-15 from -4 vs -5 expected) and consumer confidence. Data disappointed apart from in line with consensus US PPI. Headline retail sales growth slowed from a strong 0.6% M/M in August to 0.2% (vs 0.4% consensus) with all core categories weaker than expected as well. Despite the lower September numbers, real consumer spending was robust over Q3, expected at 3.2% annualized (vs +2.5% Q/Qa in Q2). November consumer confidence crashed from 95.5 to 88.7, the lowest outcome since the Covid-pandemic with the exception of April of this year (Liberation Day). There was an obvious setback in the present situation gauge given the US government shutdown, but the expectations comments fell even further back. The eco numbers put an extra burden on the dollar intraday while pushing US yields lower a first time. A third topic added to those moves: headlines that Kevin Hassett was seen as frontrunner to replace Fed Chair Powell next year. From the remaining shortlist of 5 candidates (Waller, Bowman, Warsh and Rieder), Hassett has the most dovish profile. He advocates aggressive rate cuts, prioritizing growth of inflation control. The bar to reverting to QE under his watch is probably lowest as he closely aligns with Trump’s agenda. Hassett nevertheless stresses the importance of a fully independent central bank. US yields eventually closed around 3 bps lower across the curve with EUR/USD rising from 1.1521 to 1.1570. The short term faith of the US stock market was the final talking point. Key indices tested the October low/100d mavg recently. Dip buyers showed up last Friday and gained strength on Monday and also yesterday despite a negative open (-1% and more for Nasdaq). Main indices eventually ended +0.67% (Nasdaq) to 1.4% (Dow) higher. The S&P 500 tested last week’s high. Taking that out would put fears to bed of a sell-on-ticks pattern being established.

Today’s eco calendar is less exciting. Keep in mind that US markets are closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving and that traded volumes are traditionally lower on (Black) Friday. Attention will shift to the UK with the long-awaited 2026 Autumn Budget. UK assets are extremely sensitive to the topic. From a risk point of view, a lot can go wrong/be considered as insufficient to address the public finances situation.

News & Views

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its policy rate by another 25 bps to 2.25% in a 5-1 vote. (one vote for unchanged). In explaining its current and future actions/intentions, the RBNZ admits that CPI inflation has increased to the top of the 1%-3% target range in Q3, but given spare capacity in the economy it is expected to return to 2% by mid-2026. Economic activity was weak in mid-2025, but the RBNZ sees it picking up. Lower interest rates are supporting household spending and the labour market is stabilizing. A weaker exchange rate is supporting exporters’ income. The RBNZ now sees risks to the inflation outlook as broadly balanced. In its updated forecast, the central bank now expects the policy rate at 2.2% in the first three quarters of next year. The bar for further easing looks very high. The 2-y NZ government bond yield rises by 7.5 bps this morning (2.66%). The kiwi dollar jumps sharply from the 0.5625 area to currently 0.5695.

Australian October CPI rose from 3.6% Y/Y to 3.8% Y/Y. The largest contributor to annual inflation was housing (5.9%), followed by food and non-alcohol beverages and recreation and culture, both rising 3.2%. Underlying inflation accelerated from 3.2% Y/Y to 3.3% Y/Y. Annual services inflation was 3.9%, up from 3.5%. Inflation rising further above the 2-3% RBA target range leaves the central bank no room to cut the policy rate any further. Markets now even ponder the chances of a rate hike end 2026. The 3-y Australia government bond yield jumps 14 bps (3.88%). The Aussie dollar jumps from the AUD/USD 0.647 area to currently trade near 0.6505.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9318; (P) 0.9335; (R1) 0.9361; More....

The break of 0.9325 resistance suggests that EUR/CHF's fall from 0.9660 has completed at 0.9178, on bullish convergence condition in D MACD. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.9452 resistance. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 0.9275 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains bearish with EUR/CHF staying well inside long term falling channel after multiple rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.9377). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. Break of 0.9452 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8770; (P) 0.8784; (R1) 0.8803; More…

EUR/GBP is still bounded in range of 0.8765/8663 and intraday bias stays neutral. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 0.8765 support will confirm short term topping. Intraday bias will be back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 0.8742). Sustained break there will be an early sign of bearish trend reversal. Nevertheless, decisive break of 0.8867 fibonacci level will carry larger bullish implications.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move. Upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8588) should confirm that this corrective bounce has completed. However, decisive break of 0.8867 will suggest that EUR/GBP is already reversing whole decline from 0.9267 (2022 high). That should pave the way back to 0.9267.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7805; (P) 1.7891; (R1) 1.7971; More...

EUR/AUD edged higher to 1.7976 but retreated quickly again. Intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, above 1.7976 will resume the rebound from 1.7561 towards 0.8160 resistance. On the downside, however, break of 1.7739 support will argue that the rebound has completed and turn bias back to the downside for 1.7561.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.7426) will suggest that it's correcting the whole rally from 1.4281 (2022 low). In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.6922. Nevertheless, strong rebound from 55 W EMA will likely bring resumption of the up trend sooner.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 180.17; (P) 180.52; (R1) 180.94; More...

EUR/JPY is staying in consolidations below 181.98 and intraday bias remains neutral. Deeper retreat cannot be ruled out, but downside should be contained by 178.80 resistance turned support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 181.98 will target 100% projection of 161.06 to 173.87 from 171.09 at 183.90 next. However, firm break of 178.80 will argue that deeper correction is already underway towards 55 D EMA (now at 176.64).

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress and should target 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. Outlook will continue to stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 169.42) holds, even in case of deep pullback.