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BoJ board member Asahi Noguchi said today that the central bank could resume interest rate hikes once U.S. tariff risks recede, but emphasized that any tightening must "measured, step-by-step".

He warned that maintaining very low real interest rates for too long risks undermining the economy by pushing Yen lower and stoking undesirable inflation. A weaker currency, he said, lifts prices through import costs and boosts exports in a way that can overheat the economy .

Noguchi highlighted that Yen depreciation was once a tailwind during Japan’s deflation era, supporting exporters and helping revive demand. However, "as supply constraints intensify, the positive effects eventually disappear and are replaced by negative effects that merely push inflation higher than needed," he added.

Key Highlights

• GBP/USD started a recovery wave above the 1.3120 barrier.
• It cleared a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.3115 on the 4-hour chart.
• Gold could extend upside if it clears the $4,200 resistance.
• WTI Crude Oil prices declined steadily below $60.00.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound formed a base above 1.3050 against the US Dollar. GBP/USD started a steady recovery and climbed above 1.3100.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair cleared a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.3115. There was a move above the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3471 swing high to the 1.3009 low.

The pair settled above the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and tested the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). Immediate resistance sits near 1.3220.

The first key hurdle sits at 1.3240 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3471 swing high to the 1.3009 low. The next area of interest for the bulls could be 1.3295. Any more gains could set the pace for a steady increase toward 1.3350.

On the downside, there is a key support at 1.3160. The next support is 1.3120, below which the pair could start a steady decline to 1.3050. A close below 1.3050 could start a pullback toward 1.3000.

Looking at Gold, the bulls seem to be in action, but they need to push the price above $4,200 for more upside.

New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence index jumped from 58.1 to 67.1 in November, the strongest reading in 11 years. The survey’s own-activity outlook also surged from 44.6 to 53.1, marking the highest level since 2014 and signaling a material improvement in real economic momentum rather than sentiment alone. ANZ noted that "green shoots are looking well established", with recent gains increasingly rooted in actual activity.

Inflation signals were more mixed. The share of firms planning to raise prices over the next three months climbed from 44% to 51%, the highest since March. However, expected cost increases eased slightly from 76% to 74%, and one-year-ahead inflation expectations were steady at 2.7%. The combination points to stabilizing inflation pressures, but not yet disinflation strong enough to encourage fresh easing from the RBNZ.

ANZ said the underlying improvement in conditions offers reassurance that the pickup is likely to be sustained. With the recovery underway and CPI sitting at the top of the target band, the bank sees little reason for further OCR cuts “barring unexpected developments.”

Full NZ ANZ business confidence release here.

New Zealand retail sales delivered a strong upside surprise in Q3, rising 1.9% qoq versus expectations of 0.6%. Ex-auto sales also beat forecasts, up 1.2% qoq compared with 0.8% consensus.

Statistics New Zealand said this was the largest quarterly increase in retail activity since late 2021, with broad-based gains across the sector. Most industries recorded growth during the September.

The details showed particularly strong demand in motor vehicles and electrical and electronic goods retailing, which posted the biggest increases. Eight of the 15 retail industries reported higher volumes compared with Q2.

Full New Zealand retail sales release here.

The Fed’s Beige Book indicated an economy that has largely stalled, with activity “little changed” across Districts. Consumer spending declined again, while manufacturing posted slight improvement despite the drag from tariffs and uncertainty around their future path. Outlooks were broadly unchanged, though several contacts flagged "increased risk of slower activity in coming months.

The labor market showed clearer signs of easing, with employment slipping "slightly" and around half of Districts reporting "weaker labor demand". Wage gains were generally "modest", consistent with a gradual loosening in labor conditions.

Price growth remained moderate but continued to reflect tariff-related pressures on input costs, especially in manufacturing and retail. Firms reported uneven ability to pass these higher costs through, with outcomes shaped by competition, consumer sensitivity, and client resistance. While businesses expect cost pressures to persist, "plans to raise prices in the near term were mixed," suggesting a more uneven path for inflation heading into early 2026.

Full Fed's Beige Book report here.

ECB chief economist Philip Lane said overnight that while headline inflation has hovered near target for most of the year, the picture is still flattered by energy deflation. Non-energy inflation remains “well above 2%,” and Lane stressed that a further slowdown is required to ensure inflation is sustainably anchored at target. Nevertheless, he added "We're confident that's going to happen because everything we look at tells us wage dynamics are set to decelerate further."

Lane also addressed concerns around U.S. tariffs and Europe’s export exposure. He argued the hit may be smaller than feared, as the AI-driven expansion and high U.S. government spending are supporting American demand. Under these conditions, firms still have room to pass through tariff-related costs to U.S. importers and consumers. While the U.S. is an important partner, Lane underlined that it is “not the predominant driver of the European economy.”

However, he warned that tariffs are reshaping global trade flows in meaningful ways, particularly in Asia. China is exporting more to Southeast Asia, Southeast Asia is exporting more to the U.S., and China is simultaneously increasing its footprint in Europe and other markets. Lane called this a “very big reconfiguration” of the global system, one that intensifies competitive pressure on European firms even at home.

Gold prices are currently maintaining a robust uptrend and trading near two-week highs, around the $4150/oz handle. The precious metal is poised to log its fourth consecutive monthly gain, building on a record-setting surge experienced in October that briefly targeted the $4,400 area.

The continuation of the bullish rally could be a sign that the current rally still has deep support. The bullish trend is reinforced by technical indicators that confirm strong underlying momentum, following a selloff that allowed some profit taking.

Foundational Drivers: The Federal Reserve Pivot Proxy

The current rally and supporting Gold’s valuation is the aggressive market expectation of impending monetary policy easing by the US Federal Reserve. Current forecasts indicate an 84% probability of a US interest rate cut in December , with broader market consensus pricing in approximately 90 basis points of easing by the end of 2026.

Source: CME FedWatch Tool

Market participants are expecting the FED to start cutting rates despite mixed rhetoric. The expectations do keep the US Dollar (USD) under broad pressure and force US Treasury yields to drift lower. Gold is a beneficiary in this environment as declining real yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding the metal.

These easing expectations are validated by a sequence of disappointing US economic releases, including softer ADP employment numbers, weaker Retail Sales figures, and a notable drop in the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence reading for November. Market participants are continuing a recent trend by actively front-running the central bank’s mandated reaction function.

Technical Outlook - Gold (XAU/USD)

Looking at the four-hour chart below, the technical picture is strong.

Price action looks favorable with the RSI above 50, a sign of the bullish momentum.

Price continues to trade some way away from both the 50 and 100-day MA. This could lead to a short-term pullback at some stage.

Given the Thanksgiving Holiday in the US tomorrow, markets could see lower levels of liquidity. This could keep Gold prices rangebound as well.

Keep a close watch on Ukraine-Russia developments. Any sign that a deal may be edging close could lead to increased selling pressure on Gold and thus push Gold prices lower.

Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, November 26, 2025

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

Gold: Key Near-Term Technical Levels

As mentioned above, bulls may struggle to break beyond the $4200/ounce heading into the weekend as liquidity is expected to be thin. This is not to say it is not a possibility.

Key levels to pay attention to include

• $4,380, All-Time High/Previous Record High (October 17)
• $4,220, Critical Breakout Resistance Key threshold for acceleration
• $4042, Key to Uptrend Integrity

GBP/JPY is a very popular pair in Forex trading as it captures both risk-on/risk-off dynamics, geographic trends, and rate differential trends.

The Yen and Sterling have been subject to some strong dynamics over the past month.

In Japan, markets are still concerned with the reckless government spending which the Japanese Prime Minister tried to defend against.

The latest development sees PM Sanae Takaichi and her cabinet approving a ¥21 trillion stimulus package—the largest since the COVID era.

This fiscal dovishness from the new Prime Minister, historically a negative for currency strength, has been heavily priced in since her appointment. Paradoxically, this may force the Bank of Japan to turn more hawkish, potentially hiking rates sooner to protect against a run on the JPY – The next decision is expected on December 18th.

There could still be an intervention from the BoJ which aims at buying back some Yen against other currency reserves.

For the Pound, the initial volatility relative to the recent Budget is turning into a positive trend. Despite not pivoting to full austerity (aiming to cut expenses for a better fiscal balance), the budget is perceived as far from reckless.

While higher income taxes might dampen consumption slightly, the overall fiscal stance has put the GBP in a decent position, making it the 3rd best performer of today's session.

Technically, the pair is at key point. If the current rally extends beyond the 207.00 level, the price action will point directly to a retest of the July 2024 peak.

Let's dive into a multi-timeframe analysis and technical levels for GBP/JPY, a pair that should stay active during the Thanksgiving break.

GBP/JPY Multi-timeframe Technical Analysis

Daily Chart

GBP/JPY Daily Chart, November 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The pair has evolved in a one-way tight bull channel since November 5, taking prices to overbought RSI levels.

Nevertheless, overbought doesn't mean top, particularly as the RSI is still tilting upwards, hence momentum backs the ongoing rebound.

One thing to look for on the bigger timeframe is how the market reacts to its entry (or lack thereof) in the 207.00 Resistance:

• Last week, the action stopped at 206.86 which is the level to keep in mind: Closing above would confirm an entry in the Resistance and targets the 208.120 highs.
• Below, it could point more to a double-top action and a reversal.
• Keep in mind that the Bank of Japan may intervene during the Thanksgiving break which may also provide a huge move lower. The issue is that the timing for such is unknown.

Let's dive into the intraday charts.

4H Chart and Technical Levels

GBP/JPY 4H Chart, November 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The current 4H Candle forms a doji – pointing to a more hesitant price action.

A potential trading gameplan could be to look at breakout scenarios:

• A 4H close above 207.074 should push further into the resistance zone.
• A push below the 205.526 candle lows hints at further retracement.

Levels to watch for GBPJPY trading:

Support Levels:

• 4H Candle lows 206.50
• Post-Election highs 205.33 – Current pivot
• Higher timeframe Pivot – Current Support 203.00
• Main key Support 199.00 to 200.00
• Mid 2025 Support 195.00 to 196.85

Resistance Levels:

• 207.00 to 208.00 2024 July highs – Current test
• Session highs 207.074
• 208.120 July 2024 highs
• 209.50 to 210.50 May 2008 Extremes

1H Chart

GBP/JPY 1H Chart, November 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The shorter timeframe points at further balance as the buying stalls on overbought 1H RSI.

As mentioned, right before, look at whether markets make a push either for the highs or the lows in a breakout scenario.

To avoid fakeouts, a trader can also wait for a 1H or 4H Candle close as confirmation.

In case of a bigger retracement, keep an eye on the Hourly uptrend to see if it holds, implying a buy signal or breaks, implying a sell signal.

Safe Trades!

USDCAD: ⬇️ Sell

• USDCAD reversed from resistance area
• Likely to fall to support level 1.3975

USDCAD currency pair recently reversed from resistance area between the pivotal resistance level 1.4125 (which has been reversing the price from April), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from January.

The downward reversal from this resistance area stopped the previous impulse waves 3 and (3).

Given the strength of the resistance level 1.4125, USDCAD can be expected to fall to the next support level 1.3975 (low of the previous correction 2).

Gold: ⬆️ Buy

• Gold reversed from round support level 4000.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 4235.00

Gold recently reversed from support area between the round support level 4000.00 (former support from October), 20-day moving average and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse 1 from October.

The upward reversal from this support area started the active short-term impulse wave 3 of the medium-term impulse wave (5) from the end of October.

Given the clear daily uptrend, Gold can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 4235.00 (which stopped the previous impulse wave 1).