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In an interview, RBA Governor Philip Lowe said, "Australians need to prepare for higher interest rates". He expects inflation to get to 7% by the end of the year, and "we need to be able to chart a course back to 2 to 3 per cent inflation".

Lowe said, "it's reasonable that the cash rate gets to 2½ per cent at some point... How fast we get to 2½ per cent, and indeed whether we get to 2½ per cent, is going to be determined by events."

He expects inflation to peak at around 7% in the December quarter this year. Inflation will "clearly be coming down" into the second half of next year.

Full interview here.

It has been a rough spell for the Australian dollar, which has steadied after a four-day slide. This downswing saw AUD/USD plunge over 300 points and break below the symbolic 70 level.

Market nerves weigh on the Australian dollar

Ahead of today’s FOMC rate meeting, risk sentiment is nowhere to be found. The US inflation report and expectations that the Fed will remain very aggressive have raised fears of a recession in the US. This has allowed the US dollar to surge, especially against risk-related currencies like the Australian dollar. Back in early April, AUD/USD was trading close to the 0.76 line, but the Aussie has been hammered, with drops of some 400 points in April and May.

With US inflation hitting a new 40-year high of 8.6%, some commentators are using the word “panic” to describe the financial markets. There are voices calling on the Fed to deliver a massive 0.75% hike at today’s meeting, though it would be a shock if the Fed did anything other than raise rates by 0.50%. Fed Chair Powell may use his press conference to hint at a 0.75% hike at a later date if inflation doesn’t start to fall soon, and such a message would likely boost the surging US dollar.

With no sign of an inflation peak, it’s clear that the Federal Reserve will have to keep its foot pressed to the floor when it comes to upcoming rate hikes. This makes it likely that the Fed will deliver 50-bp hikes in June, July and September. Just a couple of weeks ago the Fed signalled it would take a break in September, but that now seems a luxury it can’t afford, given that inflation continues to accelerate.

The Australian dollar didn’t get any relief from Australian releases, as NAB Business Confidence for May slowed for a second straight month, with a reading of 6 points, down from 10 previously. We’ll get a look at Westpac Consumer Confidence for June later today. The May reading came in at -5.6%, and another sharp loss could see the Aussie resume its downward movement.

AUD/USD Technical

• There is weak support at 0.6902, followed by support at 0.6765
• There is resistance at 0.6973 and 0.7110

Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.56; (P) 163.84; (R1) 165.44; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains mildly on the downside as fall from 168.67 is in progress. Sustained break of 55 day EMA (now at 161.63) will bring deeper decline to 155.57 support. On the upside, above 165.14 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 168.67 again.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93 will be a long term bullish signal, and could pave the way back to 195.86 high. This will now remain the favored case as long as 155.57 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.97; (P) 140.37; (R1) 141.36; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains mildly on the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 136.98). Sustained break there will bring further decline to 132.63 support. On the upside, above 141.77 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 144.23 again.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. Such rise is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 109.30 (2016 low). Sustained trading above 100% projection of 114.42 to 134.11 from 124.37 at 144.06 will indicate upside acceleration and target 149.76 long term resistance (2014 high). In any case, outlook will now remain bullish as long as 132.63 support holds, in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8542; (P) 0.8568; (R1) 0.8604; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral with focus on 0.8617 resistance. Firm break there will resume rise from 0.8201 medium term bottom to 0.8697 medium term fibonacci level. In any case, further rally will remain in favor as long as 0.8365 support holds.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom could be in place at 0.8201, on bullish convergence condition in daily and weekly MACD. Rise from there could either be a correction to the down trend from 0.9499 (2020 high), or a medium term up trend itself. In either case, further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.9499 to 0.8201 at 0.8697. Sustained break there will target 61.8% retracement at 0.9003.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4940; (P) 1.4997; (R1) 1.5087; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is back on the upside as rebound from 1.4758 resumes. Further rally would be seen to retest 1.5277 resistance first. Break there will target 1.5354 support turned resistance next. On the downside, below 1.4966 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5354 support turned resistance holds, larger down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) is still expected to continue. On resumption, next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). However, firm break of 1.5354 will indicate medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 1.6434 key resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0359; (P) 1.0384; (R1) 1.0406; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral as range trading continues. On the upside, decisive break of 1.0513 will resume the whole rebound from 0.9970, for 1.0610 structural resistance. On the downside, break of 1.0216 will turn near term outlook bearish for 1.0086 support next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0505 support turned resistance (2020 low) holds, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is expected to continue. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9650. However, firm break of 1.0505 will suggest medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound towards 1.1149 structural resistance.

Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment rose from -34.3 to -28.0 in June, slightly below expectation of -27.5. Current Situation Index rose from -36.5 to -27.6, above expectation of -31.0.

Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment rose from -29.5 to -28.0, below expectation of -24.3. Current Situation Index rose 8.6 pts to -26.4.

"Financial market experts are less pessimistic about the economy. However, the economy is still exposed to numerous risks, such as the effects of the sanctions against Russia, the unclear pandemic situation in China and the gradual change of course in monetary policy. So although expectations have improved, they are still deep in negative territory," comments ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach on current expectations.

Full release here.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2818; (P) 1.2859; (R1) 1.2940; More...

USD/CAD's rise from 1.2516 is in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside for 1.3075 resistance. Sustained trading above 1.3022 fibonacci level will carry larger bullish implications. On the downside, below 1.2751 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6875; (P) 0.6963; (R1) 0.7014; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside for retesting 0.6828 low. Firm break there will resume larger fall from 0.8006 to 0.6756/60 cluster support. On the upside, above 0.7033 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.7282 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Deeper fall could still be seen to 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. Strong support is expected from 0.6756/60 cluster to contain downside to complete the correction. Meanwhile, firm break of 0.7660 resistance will confirm that such corrective pattern has completed, and larger up trend is ready to resume.