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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7088; (P) 0.7140; (R1) 0.7178; More...

AUD/USD's fall resumed after brief consolidation and intraday bias is back on the downside. Current development argues that larger correction from 0.8006 is in its third leg. Fall from 0.7660 should target 0.6966 low next. On the upside, above 0.7228 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another decline.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Break of 0.7164 will suggest that such correction is still in progress, with fall from 0.7660 as the third leg. Next target will be 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. On the upside, break of 0.7660 will revive that case that the correction has already completed at 0.6966.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0498; (P) 1.0577 (R1) 1.0638; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for the moment. Sustained break of 100% projection of 1.1494 to 1.0805 from 1.1184 at 1.0495 will pave the way to 161.8% projection at 1.0069. On the upside, above 1.0654 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But upside should be limited by 1.0756 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.2348 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 1.1185 support turned resistance holds. Firm break of 1.0635 (2020 low) will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption and target a retest on 1.0339 (2017 low) next. Nevertheless, break of 1.1185 will maintain medium term neutral outlook, and extending term range trading first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2499; (P) 1.2550; (R1) 1.2598; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside at this point. Current down trend should target 161.8% projection of 1.3641 to 1.2999 from 1.3297 at 1.2258. On the upside, above 1.2601 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation first. Upside of recovery should be limited below 1.2999 support turned resistance to bring another fall.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.1409 (2020 low) has completed at 1.4248, ahead 1.4376 long term resistance (2018 high). Decline from 1.4248 could still be a corrective move, or it could be the start of a long term down trend. In either case, deeper decline would be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.2493. In any case, break of 1.3158 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9635; (P) 0.9669; (R1) 0.9722; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside for the moment. Current up trend should target next projection level at 0.9864. On the downside, below 0.9631 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside of retreat should be contained above 0.9459 resistance turned support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.0342 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 0.8756 (2021 low) already. Rise from 0.8756 is likely a medium term up trend of its own. Next target is 100% projection of 0.8756 to 0.9471 from 0.9149 at 0.9864. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.9459 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.39; (P) 127.99; (R1) 129.03; More...

USD/JPY's up trend resumed by breaking through 129.39 temporary top and intraday bias is back on the upside. Immediate focus is now on 130.04 long term projection level. Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. Next near term target is 61.8% projection of 121.27 to 129.39 from 126.91 at 131.92, and then 100% projection at 135.03. On the downside, break of 126.91 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the break of 125.85 resistance (2015 high) suggests that whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is resuming. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04. Sustained break there wave the way to 100% project at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

Yen falls broadly in Asian session today after BoJ stands pat and even maintains a dovish bias. 10-year JGB yield also tumbles after BoJ reiterates the pledged to defend the cap. Dollar, on the other hand, rises broadly, and it's trading as the strongest one for the week so far. Euro and Sterling are the worst performers for the moment but selloff is picking up in Aussie and Kiwi too.

Technically, Gold's decline finally resumed with some conviction. Fall from 1998.23 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 2070.06 high. Deeper decline is expected as long as 1911.07 minor resistance holds. Next target is 100% projection of 2070.06 to 1889.79 from 1998.23 at 1817.98. The development affirms broad based strength in Dollar.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 1.52%. Hong Kong HSI is up 1.22%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.25%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.19%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.0252 at 0.225. Overnight, DOW rose 0.19%. S&P 500 rose 0.21%. NASDAQ dropped -0.01%. 10-year yield rose 0.046 to 2.818.

BoJ stands pat, maintains dovish bias

BoJ left monetary policy unchanged as widely expected, by 8-1 vote, with dove Goushi Kataoka dissented again. Under the yield curve control framework, short-term policy interest rate is held at -0.10%. 10-year JGB yield target is kept at around 0%, without upper limit on JGB purchases. BoJ also clarified that it will offer to purchase 10-year JGBs at 0.25$ every business day through fixed-rate purchase operations.

The central bank also reiterated that it will "expanding the monetary base until the year-on-year rate of increase in the observed consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) exceeds 2 percent and stays above the target in a stable manner."

It also pledged that it "will not hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary; it also expects short- and long-term policy interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels."

In the new economic projections, GDP is forecast to grow:

• 2.9% in fiscal 2022 (revised down from 3.8%)
• 1.9% in fiscal 2023 (revised up from 1.1%)
• 1.1% in fiscal 2024 (new).

CPI (all items less fresh food) is expected to be at:

• 1.9% in fiscal 2022 (revised up from 1.1%).
• 1.1% in fiscal 2023 (unchanged).
• 1.1% in fiscal 2024 (new).

Also released from Japan, industrial production rose 0.3% mom in March, below expectation of 0.5% mom. Retail sales rose 0.9% yoy in march, below expectation of 0.4% yoy.

New Zealand ANZ business confidence ticked down to -42 in Apr

New Zealand ANZ business confidence dropped slightly from -41.9 to -42.0 in April. Own activity outlook rose from 3.3 to 8.0. Export intentions rose from 7.9 to 9.5. Investment intentions dropped from 5.2 to 3.1. Employment intentions dropped from 12.3 to 9.4. Cost expectations dropped from 95.9 to 95.5. Inflation expectations rose further from 5.51 to 5.92.

ANZ said: "With plenty of wage and other cost inflation in the pipeline, it'll be some time before the RBNZ can conclude that they're getting ahead of the inflation game. We continue to expect another 50bp hike in May, and steady 25bp increases thereafter taking the OCR to a peak of 3.5%."

NZ goods exports rose 17% yoy in Mar, imports rose 25% yoy

New Zealand goods exports rose 17% yoy to NZD 6.7B in March. Goods imports rose 25% yoy to NZD 7.1B. Trade balance was a deficit of NZD -392m, versus expectation of NZD -648m.

As a result of the monthly deficit in March 2022, the annual goods trade deficit has further widened to reach NZD -9.1B for the March 2022 year.

Looking ahead

Germany CPI flash is a focus in European session. Eurozone will release economic sentiment indicator. ECB will publish monthly bulletin. Later in the day, US advance GDP will be the main focus, together with jobless claims.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.39; (P) 127.99; (R1) 129.03; More...

USD/JPY's up trend resumed by breaking through 129.39 temporary top and intraday bias is back on the upside. Immediate focus is now on 130.04 long term projection level. Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. Next near term target is 61.8% projection of 121.27 to 129.39 from 126.91 at 131.92, and then 100% projection at 135.03. On the downside, break of 126.91 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, the break of 125.85 resistance (2015 high) suggests that whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is resuming. Further rise should be seen to 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04. Sustained break there wave the way to 100% project at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

Economic Indicators Update

BoJ left monetary policy unchanged as widely expected, by 8-1 vote, with dove Goushi Kataoka dissented again. Under the yield curve control framework, short-term policy interest rate is held at -0.10%. 10-year JGB yield target is kept at around 0%, without upper limit on JGB purchases. BoJ also clarified that it will offer to purchase 10-year JGBs at 0.25% every business day through fixed-rate purchase operations.

The central bank also reiterated that it will "expanding the monetary base until the year-on-year rate of increase in the observed consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) exceeds 2 percent and stays above the target in a stable manner."

It also pledged that it "will not hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary; it also expects short- and long-term policy interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels."

In the new economic projections, GDP is forecast to grow:

• 2.9% in fiscal 2022 (revised down from 3.8%)
• 1.9% in fiscal 2023 (revised up from 1.1%)
• 1.1% in fiscal 2024 (new).

CPI (all items less fresh food) is expected to be at:

• 1.9% in fiscal 2022 (revised up from 1.1%).
• 1.1% in fiscal 2023 (unchanged).
• 1.1% in fiscal 2024 (new).

Full statement here.

Full Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices here.

New Zealand ANZ business confidence dropped slightly from -41.9 to -42.0 in April. Own activity outlook rose from 3.3 to 8.0. Export intentions rose from 7.9 to 9.5. Investment intentions dropped from 5.2 to 3.1. Employment intentions dropped from 12.3 to 9.4. Cost expectations dropped from 95.9 to 95.5. Inflation expectations rose further from 5.51 to 5.92.

ANZ said: "With plenty of wage and other cost inflation in the pipeline, it'll be some time before the RBNZ can conclude that they're getting ahead of the inflation game. We continue to expect another 50bp hike in May, and steady 25bp increases thereafter taking the OCR to a peak of 3.5%."

Full release here.

New Zealand goods exports rose 17% yoy to NZD 6.7B in March. Goods imports rose 25% yoy to NZD 7.1B. Trade balance was a deficit of NZD -392m, versus expectation of NZD -648m.

As a result of the monthly deficit in March 2022, the annual goods trade deficit has further widened to reach NZD -9.1B for the March 2022 year.

Full release here.

DXY:

On the H4, with price expected to reverse off the stochastics indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our 1st resistance at 103.282 where the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement is to our 1st support at 101.064 in line with the horizontal pullback support, 161.8% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci projection and -61.8% Fibonacci expansion. Alternatively, price may break 1st resistance structure and head for 2nd resistance where the 100% Fibonacci projection.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 102.441
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 101.790

XAU/USD (GOLD):

On the H4, with price expected to bounce off the stochastics indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 1922 where the pullback resistance is from our 1st support at 1883 in line with the horizontal swing low support and 61.8% Fibonacci projection and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Alternatively, price may break 1st support structure and head for 2nd support where the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and -27.2% Fibonacci expansion is at 1863.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st Resistance at 1922
• H4 time frame, 1st Support at 1895

GBP/USD:

On the H4, we have a bullish bias that price will bounce from 1st support level of 1.25091 which lines up with graphical swing low support towards the 1st resistance level of 1.27677 which lines up with 78.6% fibonacci projection and 38.2% fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 1st resistance at 1.27677
• H4 1st support at 1.25091
• H4 2nd support at 1.24566

USD/CHF:

On the H4, price is near to the key resistance level. We expect that price will potentially reverse from 1st resistance level of 0.97034 in line with -27.2% fibonacci expansion and a major 61.8% fibonacci retracement towards the 1st support level of 0.95925 in line with 23.6% fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration

• 1st support level at 0.95925
• 1st resistance level at 0.97034
• 2nd resistance level at 0.97819

EUR/USD :

On the H4, price is near the pivot level. We expect price to potentially bounce from 1st support level of 1.05157 in line with 100% fibonacci retracement and -61.8% fibonacci expansion towards the 1st resistance level of 1.07585 in line with 50% fibonacci retracement.

Areas of consideration :

• H4 1st resistance at 1.07585
• H4 1st support at 1.05157
• H4 2nd support at 1.04659

USD/JPY:

On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our 1st resistance at 128.924 where the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is to our 1st support at 127.781 in line with the horizontal pullback support and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, price may break 1st resistance structure and head for 2nd resistance where the horizontal swing high resistance is at 129.380.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 128.331
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 127.667

AUD/USD:

On the H4 timeframe, price is near the key support level, We see the potential of a bullish bounce from 1st support level of 0.71062 in line with 78.6% fibonacci retracement and 78.6% fibonacci projection towards the 1st resistance level of 0.72277 in line with 38.2% fibonacci retracement and 100% fibonacci projection. Otherwise, price might break the key support level to trigger a dip towards the 2nd support of 0.70553 which is in line a previous horizontal swing low support.

Areas of consideration

• H4 1st resistance at 0.72277
• H4 1st support at 0.71062
• H4 2nd support at 0.70553

NZD/USD:

On the H4, we see the potential of bullish bounce from 1st support level of 0.65202 in line up with 161.8% fibonacci extension and -61.8% fibonacci expansion towards the 1st resistance level of 0.66437 in line with 38.2% fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci projection.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st support at 0.65202
• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 0.66437
• H4 time frame, 2nd support at 0.64897

USD/CAD:

On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 1.28560 where the swing high resistance and 161.8% Fibonacci extension is from our 1st support at 1.27622 in line with the horizontal pullback support and 50% Fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, price may break 1st support structure and head for 2nd support where the horizontal swing low support and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 1.28560
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 1.27622

OIL:

On the H4, with price expected to reverse off the resistance of the ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our 1st resistance at 104.72 where the swing high resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is to our 1st support at 96.41 in line with the horizontal swing low support and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, price may break 1st resistance structure and head for 2nd resistance where the horizontal swing high resistance at 108.80.

Areas of consideration:

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance of 104.72
• H4 time frame, 1st support of 96.41

Dow Jones Industrial Average:

On the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our 1st resistance at 33583 where the horizontal overlap resistance is to our 1st support at 32689 in line with the horizontal swing low support. Alternatively, price may break 1st resistance structure and head for 2nd resistance where the horizontal overlap resistance and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is at 34078.

Areas of consideration :

• H4 time frame, 1st resistance at 33583
• H4 time frame, 1st support at 32689