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USD/JPY's rise from 139.87 contained last week and hit as high as 157.88 before retreating. Initial bias remains neutral this week first for consolidations. Downside should be contained by 154.47 resistance turned support to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 157.88 will target 161.8% projection of 146.58 to 153.26 from 149.37 at 160.17.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) has completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. Decisive break of 158.85 structural resistance will solidify this bullish case and target 161.94 for confirmation. On the downside, break of 150.90 resistance turned support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective range pattern with another falling leg.

In the long term picture, up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress and might be ready to resumption. Firm break of 161.94 will target 61.8% projection of 102.58 (2020 low) to 161.94 (2024 high) from 139.87 at 176.55 in the medium term.

No change in GBP/USD's outlook as range trading continued above 1.3008 last week. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. With 1.3247 support turned resistance intact, further decline is expected. Break of 1.3008 will resume the fall from 1.3725 to 138.2% projection of 1.3787 to 1.3140 from 1.3725 at 1.2831. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.3247 will suggest that fall from 1.3787 has completed as a corrective move already.

In the bigger picture, the break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3184) is taken as the first sign that corrective rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) has completed. Decisive break of trend line support (now at 1.2760) will solidify this case and target 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3787 at 1.2474 next. Meanwhile, in case of another rise, strong resistance should emerge below 1.4248 (2021 high) to cap upside to preserve the long term down trend.

In the long term picture, as long as 1.4248/4480 resistance holds (38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.0351 at 1.4480), the long term outlook will remain bearish. That is, price actions from 1.3051 are seen as a corrective pattern to down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) only. Nevertheless, decisive break of 1.4248/4480 will be a strong sign of long term bullish reversal.

USD/CHF's strong rally last week dampened the original bearish view and suggests that corrective pattern from 0.7828 low is still extending. Initial bias is now on the upside this week for 0.8123 resistance. Firm break there will target 138.2% projection of 0.7828 to 0.8075 from 0.7877 at 0.8218. On the downside, below 0.8034 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).

In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It's uncertain if the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern, or resumption of the downtrend. But in either case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8756 support turned resistance holds (2021 low). Retest of 0.7065 should be seen next.

AUD/USD's fall from 0.6706 resumed by breaking through 0.6439 support last week. Initial bias stays on the downside for 0.6413 cluster (38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6706 at 0.6403). Decisive break there should confirm near term bearish reversal. Next target is 100% projection of 0.6706 to 0.6439 from 0.6579 at 0.6312. ON the upside, though, above 0.6501 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Break of 0.6413 support will suggest rejection by 0.6713 and solidify this bearish case. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, sustained break of 0.6713 will be a strong sign of bullish trend reversal, and pave the way to 0.6941 structural resistance for confirmation.

In the long term picture, fall from 0.8006 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 0.5506 long term bottom (2020 low). Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to contain downside to bring reversal. On the upside, firm break of 0.6941 will argue that the third leg has already started back to 0.8006.

USD/CAD rebounded strongly after initial dip to 1.3970 last week, but upside is capped below 1.4139 resistance for now. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Outlook stays bullish as rally from 1.3538 is in progress. Break of 1.4139 will confirm resumption and target 61.8% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3538 at 1.4312. Risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.3970 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top is likely just unfolding as a correction to up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low), with rise from 1.3538 as the second leg. A third leg should follow before up trend resumption. That is, range trading is set to extend for the medium term. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.3886 support holds. However, firm break of 1.3886 will revive the case that fall from 1.4791 is indeed a larger scale correction.

In the long term picture, rising 55 M EMA (now at 1.3562) remains intact. Thus, up trend from 0.90567 (2007 low) should still be in progress. However, considering bearish divergence condition M MACD, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will argue that the up trend has completed with five waves up to 1.4791, and turn medium term outlook bearish for correction.

GBP/JPY's rally from 184.35 resumed last week but lost momentum after hitting 206.84. Initial bias remains neutral this week for some consolidations. Downside of retreat should be contained by 202.31 support to bring another rise. Break of 206..84 will target 208.09 high. Decisive break there will confirm long term up trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern which might have completed at 184.35. Firm break of 208.09 high will resume the up trend from 123.94 (2020 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 to 208.09 from 184.35 at 220.90. However, decisive break of 199.04 support will dampen this view and extend the corrective pattern with another fall.

In the long term picture, there is no sign that the long term up trend from 122.75 (2016 low) has concluded. But firm break of 208.09 is needed to confirm resumption. Otherwise, more medium term range trading could still be seen.

EUR/JPY jumped further to 181.98 last week but retreated from there. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Downside should be contained by 178.80 resistance turned support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 181.98 will target 100% projection of 161.06 to 173.87 from 171.09 at 183.90 next. However, firm break of 178.80 will argue that deeper correction is already underway towards 55 D EMA (now at 176.36).

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress and should target 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. Outlook will continue to stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 169.00) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

In the long term picture, up trend from 94.11 (2021 low) is in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 (2014 high) from 114.42 (2020 low) at 191.32. This will remain the favored case as long as 154.77 support holds.

EUR/GBP's pullback from 0.8863 extended lower last week but downside is still contained above 0.8765 support. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 0.8765 will confirm short term topping. Intraday bias will be back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 0.8739). Sustained break there will be an early sign of bearish trend reversal. Nevertheless, decisive break of 0.8867 fibonacci level will carry larger bullish implications.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move. Upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8589) should confirm that this corrective bounce has completed. However, decisive break of 0.8867 will suggest that EUR/GBP is already reversing whole decline from 0.9267 (2022 high). That should pave the way back to 0.9267.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.9499 (2020 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). Range trading should continue between 0.8201 and 0.9499, until there is clear signal of imminent breakout.

EUR/JPY gyrated higher last week but lost momentum again after hitting 1.7934. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, above 1.7934 will resume the rebound from 1.7561 towards 0.8160 resistance. On the downside, however, break of 1.7739 support will argue that the rebound has completed and turn bias back to the downside for 1.756.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.7440) will suggest that it's correcting the whole rally from 1.4281 (2022 low). In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.6922. Nevertheless, strong rebound from 55 W EMA will likely bring resumption of the up trend sooner.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6548) holds, this second leg could still extend higher.

EUR/CHF's strong rebound last week indicates short term bottoming at 0.9178. Still, with 0.9325 resistance intact, outlook remains bearish and another fall is still in favor. On the downside, below 0.9254 minor support will bring retest 0.9178 support. However, considering bullish convergence condition in D MACD, decisive break of 0.9325 will argue that whole fall from 0.9660 has completed. Strong rally should then be seen towards 0.9452 resistance.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains bearish with EUR/CHF staying well inside long term falling channel after multiple rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.9377). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. Break of 0.9452 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong rebound.

In the long term picture, overall long term down trend is still in progress in EUR/CHF. Outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as falling 55 M EMA (now at 0.9800) holds.