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GBPUSD Heavily Bearish Below1.2990
The British pound has fallen to a fresh monthly trading low against the US dollar, with the pair once again trading under the psychological 1.3000 level. The GBPUSD pair is heavily bearish while trading under the 1.2990 level and may soon target the 1.2940 support level. The four-hour time frame is showing a bearish head and shoulders pattern with a downside projection of close to two hundred points.
The GBPUSD pair is heavily bearish while trading below the 1.2990 level, key support is found at the 1.2940 and 1.2880 levels.
If the GBPUSD pair trades above the 1.2990 level, key intraday resistance is found at the 1.3035 and 1.3064 levels.
EURUSD Bears Targeting 1.1164
The euro currency is starting to trade below the 1.1190 level against the US dollar over fears about possible trade tariffs from the United States. Sellers now need to move the EURUSD below the 1.1164 support level to change the weekly trading sentiment towards the pair. The four-hour time frame is currently showing multiple head and shoulders patterns starting to take shape.
The EURUSD pair is only intraday bullish while trading above the 1.1190 level, key technical resistance is found at the 1.1216 and 1.1233 levels.
If the EURUSD pair moves below the 1.1190 level, key technical support is found at the 1.1164 and 1.1135 levels.
EUR/USD Could Decline To 1.1170
On Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair tried to surpass the 1.1210 level. During today's morning, the pair breached the short-term ascending channel south.
Given that the exchange rate is pressured by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs located circa 1.1190, it is expected, that some downside could prevail in the market. A possible downside target is the 1.1170 level.
On the other hand, it is likely, that the rate could trade sideways, trying to surpass the given moving averages. Also, it is unlikely, that the pair could jump higher than the 1.1271 mark due to the resistance of the monthly PP.
GBP/USD Pressured By 55– And 200-Hour SMAs
During the previous trading sessions, the GBP/USD exchange rate tried to surpass the support level formed by the weekly S1 at 1.2997.
Note, that the rate is pressured by the monthly PP at the 1.3033 mark. Thus, if the given resistance and support holds, it is likely, that the rate could trade sideways in the short term.
Also, note, that the currency pair is pressured by the 55– and 200-hour SMAs located circa 1.3045. Thus, is the given support does not hold, it is expected, that bears could prevail in the market. A possible downside target is the Fibonacci 23.90% retracement at 1.2938.
USD/JPY Tests Short-Term Channel
Yesterday, the USD/JPY currency pair tested the support level formed by a combination of the weekly S3 and the monthly S2 at 109.97. During Thursday's morning, the pair declined to the lower boundary of the short-term descending channel at 109.66.
From a theoretical perspective, it is likely, that a reversal north could occur in the nearest future, and the pair could increase to the 55-hour SMA at 110.20.
On the other hand, it is expected, that the currency pair could trade sideways, trying to surpass the support level formed by the Fibonacci 50.00% retracement at 109.58.
XAU/USD Could Go Upside
Yesterday, the XAU/USD exchange rate dropped to the lower boundary of the short-term ascending channel at 1,280.00. During today's morning, the rate reversed north.
Given that gold is supported by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs, currently located in the 1,280.75/1,283.85 range, it is likely, that bulls could prevail in the market. However, the rate has to surpass the monthly PP at 1,287.27.
If the given resistance level holds, it is expected, that the price for gold could trade sideways around the psychological level at the 1,285.00 mark.
USD/JPY Outlook: Yen Rose Further On US/China Trade Conflict / North Korea Worries
The pair fell on Thursday on fresh fears over North Korea and cracked key supports at 109.71/60 (25 Mar low / weekly cloud base), as risk aversion on US/China dispute further boosts safe-haven yen.
Violation of these supports unmasks key Fibo support at 109.41 (Fibo 38.2% of 104.57/112.40 ascend), break of which would confirm reversal and sideline broader longs.
Rising bearish momentum and firm bearish configuration of daily MA’s maintains pressure, but deeply oversold stochastic (still heading south) warns that bears may take a breather in the near-term.
The base of broken thick daily cloud marks solid barrier which is expected to cap extended upticks.
Res: 110.00, 110.31, 110.58, 110.78
Sup: 109.60, 109.31, 109.00, 108.48
European Update – All Eyes On Washington
Investors nervous about US/China talks
Equity markets are trading back in the red on Thursday, as hopes of a deal between the US and China were quickly dashed, albeit not squashed altogether, making the next 48 hours of talks all the more important for markets.
If people's worst fears are realized and talks break down altogether, the market impact could be significant. One of the reasons we've seen such an incredible recovery from the fourth quarter sell-off has been the belief that it's a case of when, not if, a deal will be reached. It was heavily priced in. The global shift from central banks towards a more accommodative stance has also been a major factor that could limit some of the downside but a breakdown in talks would be a massive blow.
Thankfully, a complete breakdown is not one of the more likely outcomes of this week's talks. That's not to say that we won't see more tariffs imposed but the lines of communication will likely stay open. As it stands, the best likely outcome is probably a delay in tariffs and continuation of talks. That may temporarily support markets but the intensity of negotiations will have to be ramped up.
EUR/JPY Bears Are In Control
The common European currency traded sideways against the Japanese Yen on Wednesday. The weekly S3 at 123.13 provided support for the pair during yesterday's trading session.
The exchange rate broke the support level during the first part of Thursday's trading session.
Everything being equal, it is likely that the EUR/JPY currency pair will continue to edge lower today.
The potential downside targets for bearish traders will be near the monthly S3 at 121.09 mark.
AUD/USD Reveals New Junior Channel
The price movement of the Australian Dollar against the US Dollar was guided by bearish sentiment on Wednesday. The currency pair depreciated about 40 base points during yesterday's trading session.
The exchange rate was trading near the bottom border of a junior descending channel pattern at 0.6979 during the first part of Thursday's session.
Everything being equal, it is likely that the AUD/USD currency pair will aim for a resistance line set by the 100-hour SMA at 0.7008 within this session.
However, technical indicators demonstrate that the currency exchange rate might fall during the following trading session.
