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WTI Oil Consolidates Under New 2019 High

WTI oil hit new 2019 high at $58.65 on Thursday (the highest since 13 Nov 2018), in extension of strong bullish acceleration on Wednesday that resulted in eventual break and close above previous highs at $57.79/85.

Oil price was boosted by unexpected drop in US crude inventories which showed draw of 3.8 mln bls previous week against expected increase of 2.6 mln bls and previous week's strong build of 7 mln bls.

Adding to positive sentiment was attempt of Saudi Arabia to further reduce oil production and reduced supply from Iran (due to US sanctions) and Venezuela (hit by sanctions and political turmoil.

Traders took some profits after three-day rally, sending the price lower, but bias remains bullish and sees current easing as positioning for fresh upside attempts towards targets at $59.62 (50% retracement of $76.88/$42.36) and $60.0 (psychological barrier). Former highs mark initial supports ($7.85/79), with extended dips expected to find ground above converged 10/20SMA's ($56.72) and keep bulls in play.

Res: 58.65; 59.62; 60.00; 61.27
Sup: 57.85; 57.24; 56.72; 55.94

Into US session: Dollar strongest as US-China trade negotiation may drag on

Entering into US session, Dollar is trading as the strongest one on talks that US-China trade negotiation is dragging on, and the Trump-Xi summit would be postponed to April. Swiss Franc is the second strongest, followed by Euro. Sterling is the weakest one so far as a third day of Brexit vote is awaited. The Commons will vote on seeking Article 50 extensions. Australian Dollar is following as the second weakest, weighed down by China economic data which suggests longer slowdown.

US will release import price index, jobless claims, and new home sales. Canada will release new housing price index.

In Europe:

  • FTSE is up 0.69%.
  • DAX is up 0.24%.
  • CAC is up 0.70%.
  • German 10-year yield is up 0.0095 at 0.075.

Earlier in Asia:

  • Nikkei dropped -0.02%.
  • Hong Kong HSI rose 0.15%.
  • China Shanghai SSE dropped -1.20% to 2990.69, below 3000.
  • Singapore Strait Times rose 0.07%
  • Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0053 to -0.04.

DAX Jumpy As British Parliament Rejects No-Deal Brexit

The DAX is showing strong movement in both directions, but has only managed slight gains. Currently, the DAX is at 11,591, up 0.20% on the day. In economic news, German CPI rebounded in February with a gain of 0.4%, after a decline of 0.5% a month earlier. On Friday, the eurozone releases consumer inflation data.

Another vote, another defeat for Prime Minister May in parliament. On Wednesday, lawmakers voted to remove the option of a no-deal Brexit, but it should be noted that this vote is not binding on the government. With parliament set to vote on Thursday on a request to extend Article 50, market focus will be on Brussels as well as London. Will the E.U. agree to an extension? If so, will there be any strings attached? The DAX lost ground in the Asian session, but has since recovered. Traders should be prepared for further volatility from European stock markets after the parliament vote on Thursday.

The eurozone manufacturing sector has struggled, but there was some positive news on Wednesday, as the reading of 1.4% was the strongest gain since August 2017. Germany, the largest economy in the eurozone, has been posting weak manufacturing data. Industrial production fell 0.8% in January, missing expectations. The indicator managed only two gains in the second half of 2018 and has started 2019 with a decline. Last week, factory orders plunged 2.6%, marking a third successive decline. The U.S-China trade war has dampened global growth, which has reduced the demand for German exports and weighed heavily on manufacturing activity.

USDJPY Bulls Targeting 112.00

The US dollar has continued to advance higher against the Japanese yen currency during the European trading, with the pair moving closer to key resistance. Traders should expect the USDJPY pair to target the 112.00 level while price holds above the 111.60 level. A break above the current month trading high, at 112.20, will likely accelerate technical buying towards the 112.80 resistance level.

The USDJPY pair is intraday bullish while trading above the 111.60 level, key resistance is found at the 112.20 and 112.80 levels.

If the USDJPY pair trades below the 111.60 level, sellers may test towards the 111.45 and 111.30 support levels.

EURUSD 1.1325 Now Key Resistance

The euro continues to trade above the key 1.1300 level against the US dollar as the greenback comes under selling pressure across the board. If bulls can hold price above the 1.1325 resistance level, EURUSD buyers may soon start to target the 1.1360 level. Only a sustained move under the 1.1290 support level can negate the current short-term bullish bias surrounding the EURUSD pair.

The EURUSD pair is strongly bullish while trading above the 1.1325 level, key technical resistance is found at the 1.1360 and 1.1400 levels.

If the EURUSD pair moves under the 1.1290 level, sellers may test back towards the 1.1280 and 1.1260 levels.

EUR/USD Surges To 1.1340

During Wednesday's trading session, the European Single Currency was supported by the 200-hour simple moving average to surge to 1.1320. On Thursday morning, the rate was located at the 1.1316 mark.

It is expected that the currency exchange rate will surge towards the R1 at 1.1354 to end the trading session at the 1.1340 level.

Besides, the 55-hour simple moving averages will try to catch up the rate to give additional support to the rate for the next trading session.

GBP/USD Waits For Brexit Deal Meeting

During Wednesday's trading session, the British Pound surged to the 1.3300 level due to Brexit deal talks. On Thursday morning, the rate depreciated to the 1.3261 mark.

In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the currency exchange rate will expect another day of high volatility on the GBP/USD chart due to another Brexit deal meeting at the UK's parliament. Besides, most likely, the rate might break through the medium pattern line to trade near 38.20% Fibo at 1.3449.

Note, It is very important to stay informed about Brexit deal news during the day!

USD/JPY Might Trade At 111.80

During Wednesday's trading session, the rate passed through 55-hour and the 100-hour simple moving averages to end the trading session at 111.20. On Thursday morning, the currency exchange rate broke the resistances of the SMAs to trade at the 111.60 mark.

In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the 200-hour simple moving average will support the rate to push it to the 111.80 level.

However, the US Dollar might appreciate against the Japanese Yen to force the rate to stay at the 111.40 level for the rest of the trading session

XAU/USD Could Stay At 1,300.00

During Wednesday's trading session, the rate surged to the 1,310.00 level as it was predicted. On Thursday morning, the yellow metal dropped to the 1,298.32 mark, passing through the support levels of the 55-hour and the 100-hour simple moving averages.

In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the monthly S1 at 1,295.12 will support gold to trade sideways at the 1,300.00 level for the rest of the trading session.

Besides, the 200-hour simple moving average might also support the yellow metal from the fall.

EUR/JPY Breakout Occurs

The common European currency appreciated about 68 base points against the Japanese Yen on Wednesday. The currency pair maintained a junior ascending channel pattern during yesterday's trading session.

Today's session began with a bullish sentiment. By the middle of the day, a breakout had occurred through the upper boundary of the junior ascending channel pattern.

Given that a breakout has occurred, it is likely that the currency exchange rate aims for a resistance level at 126.76 within this trading session.

If the pair reaches the resistance line as mentioned above, a pullback could be expected.