Sample Category Title

OECD Cuts Both 2019 And 2020 Global Growth Outlook

Notes/Observations

Asia:

  • Australia Q4 GDP missed expectations and registered its weakest quarterly reading since 2016 . (Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.6%e); Calls for RBA to cut rates

Europe:

  • EU and UK Brexit negotiators ended talks in Brussels on Tuesday with no agreement (as expected); talks to continue tomorrow (Wed, Mar 6th). EU official said the talks did not go well
  • EU27 ambassadors said to have been called in for unexpected meeting on Wed, Mar 6th. Some speculation it might have to do with recent talks between EU's Barnier and UK AG Cox and Brexit Sec Barclay
  • Italy said to be planning to join China Belt and Road initiative, planned to sign MOU related to the initiative by the end of March

Americas:

  • Fed said to consider more strict rules related to foreign bank branches. Could seek to tighten a loophole which has enabled foreign banks to block assets from certain US bank rules related to holding companies

Energy:

  • Weekly API Oil Inventories: Crude: +7.3M v -4.2M

Macro

  • (AU) Australia: Q4 GDP slowed 0.2% from 0.4% in Q3. The report came in under expectations and left the slowest rate of increase since the matching 0.2% clip in Q2 of 2015. On annual basis GDP slowed to a 2.3% from 2.7%. Much of Australia's economic weakness has been driven by soft consumption, amid concerns that falling house prices are having a negative wealth effect that is discouraging people from spending on discretionary items. The RBA has long flagged consumption as a key source of uncertainty and the GDP data indicated consumers remain reluctant to spend. RBA Governor Lowe said today the housing market adjustment is manageable, GDP takeaways noted signs the negative wealth effect is continuing to play out. Industry data also provides anecdotal evidence of this with new car sales down sharply -9.3% y/y in February according to FCAI.
  • (JP) Japan: In a speech to business leaders, BOJ board member Yutaka Harada discussed expectations for inflation dynamics ahead of the consumption tax hike scheduled for October. Harada estimated that the tax hike will raise FY19/20 core CPI by 0.5 percentage point, while free education will be a drag of 0.3 ppt in FY19 and 0.4pt in FY20, and mobile phone-related discounts may pose an additional drag of 0.5-1.0 ppt. This is effectively an acknowledgement that achieving the 2% inflation target inevitably will be delayed further.
  • (UK) United Kingdom: UK press report that a delay to Brexit is looking increasingly "inevitable". Even if the government's Withdrawal Agreement is passed by next Tuesday there would not be sufficient time to pass necessary preparatory legislation in parliament. This should have been clear for some time now. Talks between the UK's Brexit secretary and the UK's Attorney General ended in Brussels yesterday without an agreement, or indeed any sign of a breakthrough. It continues to look unlikely that the EU will concede beyond making non-legally binding assurances about the future relationship, given the logic that the Irish backstop would simply not be a backstop if it was time-limited.

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

  • Indices [Stoxx600 -0.11% at 375.22, FTSE +0.05% at 7,186.72, DAX -0.29% at 11,586.49, CAC-40 -0.25% at 5,284.30, IBEX-35 +0.13% at 9,270.00, FTSE MIB +0.22% at 20,761.50, SMI -0.37% at 9,381.50, S&P 500 Futures -0.20%]
  • Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European Indices trade mixed in lackluster trade following on from a mixed session in Asia over night and flat to lower futures in the US. In Macro news no progress has been seen on the Brexit front as talks are still at a stalemate. On the corporate front shares of German listed Dialog Semiconductor trades over 6% higher after good Q4 results and outlook; Brenntag trades higher on higher Revenue and profits and upbeat outlook while PageGroup is another notable rise after earnings. Leclanche, Latecoere and Bossard Group are among other notable risers on earnings. Meanwhile Legal & General shares tank almost 5% despite a rise in profits; Schaeffler falls sharply after earnings and withdrawing its 2020 targets given challenging market environment. Elsewhere Autoneum, Prysmian and Costain also decline on earnings. In other news, Logitech shares rise in Switzerland after affirming its outlook; TomTom gains on a multi year deal extension with Volkswagen, while DS Smith trades higher after divesting its Plastics unit for $585M and and an up beat trading update. Looking ahead notable earners include retailers Dollar Tree, NJ's Wholesale club, Abercrombie and Fitch and Chico Fas among others

Equities

  • Consumer discretionary: DS Smith [SMDS.UK] +4.5% (divestment; trading update), International Workplace Group [IWG.UK] -2% (earnings; raises dividend), Just Eat [JE.UK] -3% (earnings), Paddy Power [PPB.UK] +1% (earnings), PageGroup [PAGE.UK] +2% (earnings)
  • Energy: Ophir Energy [OPHR.UK] -0.5% (Soco confirms no offer will be made)
  • Financials: Deutsche Bank [DBK.DE] -0.5% (said to have considered closing Equities trading operations)
  • Industrials: Schaeffler [SHA.DE] -9% (earnings; cost cut program; cautious guidance), Brenntag [BNR.DE] +4% (earnings)
  • Technology: Dialog Semiconductor [DLG.DE] +6.5% (final earnings; outlook), Logitech [LOGN.CH] +1.5% (affirms outlook), TomTom [TOM2.NL] +4% (awarded extension to contract)

Speakers

  • OECD updates its economic outlook which cut both 2019 and 2020 global growth forecasts citing policy uncertainty, trade tensions and weaker confidence. Cut 2019 Global GDP growth forecast from 3.5% to 3.3% and 2020 from 3.5% to 3.4%. Called for ECB to signal low rates for longer
  • UK Attorney General (AG) Cox: Both sides have expressed strong views but remain in robust talks on an exit deal
  • France Fin Min Le Maire: GAFA tax supported by 23 countries as is a strong measure of fiscal justice (**Note: GAFA tax stands for Google, Apple, Facebook and Amazon)
  • Italy Stats Agency (Istat) Monthly Economic Note: Leading indicator showed further decline, confirmed was in a difficult economic trend
  • Italy Dep PM Di Maio (5-Stary party) reiterated that Italy would meet the 2019 GDP growth target (currently at 1.0%); reiterated that current govt coalition will not fall apart over the Italian-French rail link
  • Italy Transportation Min Toninelli refuted reports that he had threaten to quit the govt over TAV rail
  • Russia Econ Min Oreshkin: Inflation has been better than expected - Turkey Fin Min Albayrak: end-2019 inflation to be well below govt forecasts (**Note: currently seen at 15.9%)
  • India govt official: To meet FY18/19 deficit target of 3.4% of GDP (**Note: Earlier reports circulated that India's fiscal deficit might to 3.5% as direct tax target could miss by up to INR600B)
  • US Ambassador to the UK: Any trade deal between the two countries has to include farming

Currencies/Fixed Income

  • FX market in Europe was little changed with little in terms of economic releases.
  • GBP/USD was lower by 0.2% at 1.3150 area as UK-EU officials meet again to find a solution on the Irish backstop issue. Negotiators on Tuesday again failed to find an agreement on the issue (as expected).
  • EUR/USD was holding steady around the 1.13 area ahead of Thursday's ECB meeting. No changes in policy expected but the updated Staff Projections are likely to revise the growth outlook lower and could have the ECB reconsider its planned path of normalization.
  • The AUD was pummeled during the Asian session after Australia Q4 GDP missed expectations and registered its weakest quarterly reading since 2016. Many analyst now see up to 50bps in rate cuts this year by the RBA

Economic Data

  • (NO) Norway Q4 Current Account Balance (NOK): 46.8B v 91.4B prior
  • (TW) Taiwan Feb Foreign Reserves: $463.9B v $463.0B prior
  • (DE) Germany Feb Construction PMI: 54.7 v 50.7 prior
  • (SE) Sweden Q4 Current Account Balance (SEK): 39.6B v 36.3B prior
  • (IS) Iceland Feb Preliminary Trade Balance (ISK): -15.3B v +7.0B prior
  • (ZA) South Africa Feb Business Confidence: 93.4 v 95.1 prior

Fixed Income Issuance

  • (IN) India sold total INR100B vs. INR100B indicated in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills
  • (DK) Denmark sold total DKK2.40B in 2023 and 2029 Bonds
  • (SE) Sweden sold SEK5.0B vs. SEK5.0B indicated in 6-month Bills; Avg Yield: -0.4739% v -0.6075% prior; bid-to-cover: 1.95x v 1.35x prior
  • (QA) Qatar said to have received over $25B in order for its 5-year, 10-year and 30-year bonds issuance

Looking Ahead

  • 05:30 (UK) DMO to sell £3.0B in 1.0% Apr 2024 Gilts - 05:30 (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) to sell 13-week bills
  • 06:00 (TR) Turkey Central Bank (CBRT) Interest Rate Decision: expected to leave One-Week Repo Rate unchanged at 24.00% 06:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Interest Rate decision: expected to leave Base Rate unchanged at 1.50%
  • 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell 2033 and 2057 Bonds
  • 06:00 (RU) Russia OFZ Bond auction results
  • 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
  • 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Mar 1st: No est v +5.4% prior
  • 07:00 (UK) Weekly PM May question time in House of Commons:
  • 07:15 (UK) BOE's Cunliffe in London
  • 08:00 (UK) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
  • 08:15 (US) Feb ADP Employment Change: +190Ke v +213K prior
  • 08:30 (US) Dec Trade Balance: -$57.9Be v -$49.3B prior
  • 08:30 (CA) Canada Dec Int'l Merchandise Trade (CAD): -2.1Be v -2.1B prior
  • 08:30 (CA) Canada Q4 Labor Productivity Q/Q: -0.3%e v +0.3% prior
  • 09:00 (MX) Mexico Feb Vehicle Production: No est v 333.7K prior; Vehicle Exports: no est v 242.3K prior
  • 10:00 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Interest Rate unchanged at 1.75%
  • 10:00 (CA) Canada Feb Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Seasonally Adj): No est v 54.7 prior; PMI (unadj): No est v 49.5 prior
  • 10:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank Gov Glapinski to hold post rate decision press conference
  • 10:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
  • 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories
  • 12:00 (US) Fed's Williams (moderate, voter) at Economic Club of New York
  • 12:00 (US) Fed's Mester (hawk, non-voter)
  • 12:30 (UK) BOE's Saunders
  • 13:00 (UK) BOE's Haldane (leaning hawk, chief economist)
  • 14:00 (US) Fed Beige Book
  • 14:00 (AR) Argentina Jan Industrial Production Y/Y: -12.0%e v -14.7% prior; Construction Activity Y/Y: No est v -20.5% prior

EURJPY Holds In Ascending Range, Indicators Point Up

EURJPY is currently rising, touching the 40-simple moving average (SMA), after the rebound on the lower Bollinger Band in the 4-hour chart. The pair has been struggling in an upward sloping channel since January 15 with the technical indicators returning back to the upside. The RSI is pointing up approaching the 50 level, while the %K line of the stochastic oscillator completed a bullish crossover with the %D line.

If the market pushes the pair higher, the price could re-challenge the immediate resistance of 20-SMA, which currently stands around 126.82 and then could hit the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the downleg from 133.10 to 118.57 near the 127.50 resistance level. If the price successfully surpasses this strong region and the upper band of the channel, it could hit towards the 128.40 barrier.

On the other side, if the market moves lower in the near term, the pair could touch the 125.95 support and the 50.0% Fibonacci of 125.85. In case of an extension lower, the ascending trend line could halt bearish movements around 125.30.

Concluding, in the longer timeframe, the price remains in a strong bearish structure following the pullback on 133.10 and only an advance above the 61.8% Fibonacci near 127.60 could confirm a bullish correction mode.

The Analytical Overview Of The Main Currency Pairs

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.13391
Open: 1.13073
% chg. over the last day: -0.30
Day's range: 1.12898 – 1.13075
52 wk range: 1.1214 – 1.2557

EUR keeps losing positions against the USD before the Central Bank meeting. Yesterday EUR/USD quotes updated the local minimums. The trading instrument is consolidating around 1.12900-1.13100. EUR is under pressure due to the worries that ECB might renew the stimulating measures for the economy and announce it on Thursday. An additional support for USD is given by the optimistic report on the business activity in the non-industrial and real-estate markets. You should open positions from the key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 06.03.2019:

Preliminary Report on the Labour Market by ADP (US) – 15:15 (GMT+2:00);

Trading Balance (US) – 15:30 (GMT+2:00);

Beige Book (US) – 21:00 (GMT+2:00);

Keep an eye on the comments by FOMC representatives.

The price fixed below 50 MA and 200 MA which points to the power of the sellers.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone but above the signal line which gives a weak signal to sell EUR/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is near the oversold zone, the %K line is above the %D line which points to the bullish mood.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.12900, 1.12500
Resistance levels: 1.13200, 1.13450, 1.13650

If the price fixes below the support level of 1.12900, expect the quotes to fall further toward 1.12500-1.12300.

Alternatively, the quotes can grow toward 1.13400-1.13600.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.31734
Open: 1.31729
% chg. over the last day: -0.01
Day's range: 1.31240 – 1.31788
52 wk range: 1.2438 – 1.4378

GBP/USD keeps showing a negative trend. The market participants started to fix their positions after the long rally in the last two weeks. GBP is under pressure due to Brexit ambiguousness. On Tuesday the represtative of the Labour party claimed that not many parliamentaries support the EU deal proposed by May, and that there hasn't been any breakthroughs on that front. Right now the quotes are consolidating. The key range is 1.31100-1.31800. You should open positions from these levels.

The Economic News Feed for 06.03.2019 is calm.

The indicators do not provide precise signals, 50 MA has crossed 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone but above the signal line which gives a weak signal to sell GBP/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line which points to the bullish mood.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.31100, 1.30500, 1.29800
Resistance levels: 1.31800, 1.32400, 1.32800

If the price fixes below 1.31000, expect the quotes to fall toward 1.30700-1.30400.

Alternatively, the quotes can recover toward 1.32300-1.32600.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.33018
Open: 1.33502
% chg. over the last day: +0.39
Day's range: 1.33489 – 1.33736
52 wk range: 1.2248 – 1.3664

CAD is weakened again against the USD. The quotes are consolidating around the local resistance 1.33750 with 1.33350 acting as a mirror resistance. The financial market participants are waiting for the Bank of Canada meeting. The regulator is planned to keep the 1.75% key interest rate. Keep an eye on the comments and rhetorics by the Central Bank representatives. You should open positions from the key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 06.03.2019:

Trading Balance (CAD) – 15:30 (GMT+2:00);

Decision of Bank of Canada on the key interest rate (CAD) – 17:00 (GMT+2:00);

Ivey's Business Activity Index (CAD) – 17:00 (GMT+2:00);

The price fixed above 50 MA and 200 MA which points to the power of byers.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone but below the signal line, which gives a weak signal to buy USD/CAD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line which points toward the correction of USD/CAD.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.33350, 1.33000, 1.32700
Resistance levels: 1.33750, 1.34000

If the price fixes above 1.33750, expect the quotes to grow toward 1.34250-1.34500.

Alternatively, the quotes can correct toward the round 1.33000.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 111.729
Open: 111.849
% chg. over the last day: +0.10
Day's range: 111.725 – 111.924
52 wk range: 104.56 – 114.56

USD/JPY remains in a flat. The technical picture is ambiguous. The investors are waiting for additional drivers, with levels being 111.750 and 112.000 respectively. Keep an eye on the economic reports, as well the US Treasury bond yield dynamics. You should open positions from the key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 06.03.2019 is calm.

The indicators do not provide precise signals, the price has crossed 50 MA.

The MACD histogram is close to 0.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line which gives a signal to buy USD/JPY.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 111.750, 111.500, 111.200
Resistance levels: 112.000, 112.500

If the price fixes above the round 112.000, expect the quotes to grow toward 112.400-112.600.

Alternatively, the quotes can fall toward 111.500-111.300.

The US Dollar Is Again In The Green. The Potential For Growth Remains. We expect The Bank Of Canada...

Yesterday, the US dollar strengthened against a basket of major currencies. The dollar index (#DX) updated two-week highs and closed in the positive zone (+0.19%). Positive economic data, as well as the growth of the US government bonds yield supported the US currency. Thus, ISM non-manufacturing PMI counted to 59.7 in February and turned out to be better than the forecasted value of 57.3. New home sales increased to 621K in December instead of 600K.

The Australian dollar weakened against the US dollar. Today, during the Asian trading session, weak Australia GDP has been published. Thus, GDP (q/q) grew by only 0.2% in the 4th quarter of 2018, while experts expected growth by 0.5%. GDP (y/y) increased by 2.3% instead of 2.5%.

The British pound also fell against the US currency. Financial market participants began to fix positions due to the uncertainty concerning Brexit. Talks between representatives of the UK and the EU were held yesterday in Brussels, which did not bring positive results and did not go well. Today, discussions will resume.

Investors expect the Bank of Canada interest rate decision. It is expected that the regulator will keep the key marks of monetary policy at the same level. We recommend paying attention to the comments by the Central Bank representatives.

The "black gold" prices are falling. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil have approached the mark of $56.00 per barrel. At 17:30 (GMT+2:00), a report on crude oil inventories will be published in the US.

Market Indicators

  • Yesterday, there was a variety of trends in the US stock market: #SPY (-0.14%), #DIA (-0.03%), #QQQ (+0.07%).
  • At the moment, the 10-year US government bonds yield is at 2.70-2.71%.

The news feed on 06.03.2019:

  • ADP nonfarm employment change in the US at 15:15 (GMT+2:00);
  • Trade balance in the US at 15:30 (GMT+2:00);
  • Bank of Canada interest rate decision at 17:00 (GMT+2:00);
  • Ivey PMI at 17:00 (GMT+2:00);
  • Fed's "Beige Book" at 21:00 (GMT+2:00).

AUD/USD Bearish Rejection Targeting Lower Camarilla Pivots

The AUD/USD has made a double top and we can see a clear CAMMACD signal for a sell trade. Bearish trend should progress.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held interest rates at 1.5% for its 27th consecutive meeting. The decision was inline with financial markets and analysts, however, Dr Lowe of the RBA expects the economy to grow by 3% this calendar year, despite it slowing in recent months, whilst the unemployment should lower to 4.75%. Issues with the housing sector in Australia will continue to weigh in on future rates, with some pundits predicting rate cuts later this year.

At this point the price has overshot the ATR (5) which indicates heavy bearish pressure. The POC zone 0.7060-75 should reject the pair again if the price makes another retracement in the zone. Targets for the move are 0.7007 and 0.6950. As long as 0.7100 is intact shorting on rallies could be a valid option for intraday and intraweek traders.

USD/CAD Narrow Channel Holding

The US Dollar has been trading in a narrow ascending channel pattern against the Canadian Dollar since March 1. The narrow ascending channel has guided the currency pair towards January 24 high at 1.3360.

Given that the channel pattern is too narrow, a breakout will occur within this session. Technical indicators demonstrate that the upside momentum could continue today.

From a theoretical point of view, the currency exchange rate supposes to make a pullback towards a support level formed by the weekly pivot point at 1.3240 during the following trading session.

NZD/USD Target At 0.6796

A junior descending channel pattern has guided the New Zealand Dollar towards a three-week low against the US Dollar. The currency pair breached the weekly S1 at 0.6765 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday.

Everything being equal, it is likely that bullish traders could attempt to push the currency exchange rate towards the 50-hour simple moving average at 0.6797 within this session.

However, the NZD/USD pair might make a reversal from the current price level at 0.6780 and continue its downside momentum during the following trading session.

EUR/JPY Breaches Ascending Channel Pattern

The common European currency depreciated about 0.61% in values against the Japanese Yen on Tuesday. The currency pair breached the lower boundary of an ascending channel pattern during Tuesday's trading session.

The 200-hour simple moving average provided support for the exchange rate during the first half of today's session.

If the support level holds, the EUR/JPY pair could aim for the 127.00 region within this session.

Although, if the currency exchange rate breaks the 200-hour SMA at 126.31, a decline towards a support cluster at 125.91 could be expected today.

AUD/USD Bearish Signals Today

The Australian Dollar traded sideways against the US Dollar on Tuesday. However, the situation changes during the Asian trading session on Wednesday, as bears drove the currency pair closer to the bottom border of a junior descending channel pattern at 0.7034.

By and large, it is likely that the AUD/USD exchange rate will make an upside movement within this session. The potential target will be near the 50-hour simple moving average at 0.7075.

On the other hand, the currency exchange rate could continue its downwards movement today and perhaps breaks the junior descending channel.

BOC Interest Rate Decision

The BoC is to release its interest rate decision today (15:00, GTM) and is widely expected to remain on hold at +1.75%. Currently CAD OIS imply a probability of 97% for such a scenario and market focus seems to concentrate on the accompanying statement. With the GDP growth rate taking a hit for Q4 (+0.4% qoq (annualized)) and the CPI rate (+1.4% yoy) remaining below the bank's median target (+2.00% yoy) it's difficult to see how the bank may avoid a more dovish tone. On the other hand analysts point out that the bank may want to keep the door open for any future rate hikes, hence adopt a neutral tone. Also we see the case for the housing market, household consumption, global trading conditions and the oil market to remain in focus for the BoC which may remain data dependent. We could see the CAD reacting negatively to an overly dovish tone by the bank, yet please be advised that should the bank adopt a more neutral tone, we could see an asymmetrically positive response from the Loonie. USD/CAD continued to rise yesterday and during today's Asian session, broke the 1.3360 (S1) resistance line (now turned to support). We see the case for the pair to maintain a bullish market, as long as the upward trendline incepted since Monday remains intact. On the other hand please be advised that we expect the pair to be very sensitive to BoC's interest rate decision and that the RSI indicator in the 4 hour chart is steadily near the reading of 70, implying a rather overcrowded long position for the pair. Should the pair find fresh buying orders along its path, we could see it aiming if not breaking the 1.3425 (R1) resistance line. Should it come under the selling interest of the market, we could see the pair breaking the 1.3360 (S1) support line, the prementioned upward trendline and aim for the 1.3290 (S2) support hurdle.

AUD weakens on GDP slowdown.

The Aussie weakened during today's Asian session, as the Australian GDP growth rate decelerated even more than expected (Q4: 2.3% yoy vs. Survey:+2.5% yoy). Analysts point out that the slowdown more or less confirms a slowdown in demand and come into contradiction to the bank's estimates of a 3% growth in 2019, announced yesterday. RBA governor Lowe had tried to prepare the markets for the GDP slowdown ahead of the release, while at the same time stating that it is difficult to imagine rates rising in 2019. We expect the AUD to remain under pressure, yet Australia's retail sales growth rate due out tomorrow, may give a breather to the Aussie. AUD/USD dropped during today's Asian session, breaking the 0.7065 (R1) support line (now turned to resistance). We expect the pair to remain under pressure in a bearish market currently, while tomorrow's release of Australia's retail sales could provide a breather for the pair. Should the bears continue to dictate the pair's direction, we could see it aiming if not breaking the 0.6985 (S1) support line, while if the bulls take over we could see the pair breaking the 0.7065 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 0.7150 (R2) resistance barrier.

Today's other economic highlights

In today's late European session we get from Turkey CBRT's interest rate decision. We expect the bank to maintain its 1 week repo rate at +24.00% and the market's attention to turn to the accompanying statement. Should the bank continue to show a firm stance in favour of a tight monetary policy we could see the TRY strengthening, on the other hand should the bank tweak its monetary policy, we could see the TRY weakening. In the American session, we get from the US the ADP national employment figure for February, the trade balance figure for December, and the EIA crude oil inventories figure for last week. From Canada, besides the BoC interest rate decision, we get the trade balance figure for December and the Ivey PMI for February. As for speakers BoE's Jon Cunliffe, Cleveland Fed President Mester, NY Fed President Williams, as well as BoE's Saunders speak.

USD/CAD

Support: 1.3360 (S1), 1.3290 (S2), 1.3215 (S3)
Resistance: 1.3425 (R1), 1.3510 (R2), 1.3575 (R3)

AUD/USD H4

Support: 0.6985 (S1), 0.6915 (S2), 0.6830 (S3)
Resistance: 0.7065 (R1), 0.7150 (R2), 0.7230 (R3)