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For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP rose 1.01% against the USD and closed at 1.3197 on Friday, amid hopes that the UK will leave the European Union with a deal.

In economic news, UK's BBA mortgage approvals dropped to a level of 38.8K in December, in line with market expectations. In the prior month, BBA mortgage approvals had registered a revised reading of 39.2K.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.3202, with the GBP trading slightly higher against the USD from Friday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3105, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3008. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3256, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3310.

In absence of key economic releases in the UK today, traders would keep an eye on global macroeconomic releases for further direction.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.08% against the JPY and closed at 109.66 on Friday.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 109.37, with the USD trading 0.26% lower against the JPY from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 109.11, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 108.85. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 109.79, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 110.21.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.33% against the CHF and closed at 0.9932 on Friday.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.9923, with the USD trading 0.09% lower against the CHF from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9904, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9886. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9958, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9994.

Trading trend in the Swiss Franc today is expected to be determined by Switzerland’s total sight deposits, scheduled to release in a while.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.96% against the CAD and closed at 1.3230 on Friday.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.3205, with the USD trading 0.19% lower against the CAD from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3162, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3119. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3290, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3375.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD rose 1.30% against the USD and closed at 0.7177 on Friday.

LME Copper prices rose 0.3% or $16.0/MT to $5901.0/MT. Aluminium prices rose 0.8% or $15.5/MT to $1866.5/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.7201, with the AUD trading 0.33% higher against the USD from Friday’s close.

In China, Australia’s largest trading partner, industrial profits eased 1.9% on a yearly basis in December, following a decline of 1.8% in the preceding month.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7128, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7056. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7238, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7276.

With no macroeconomic releases in Australia today, investors would look forward to global macroeconomic events for further directions.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Gold rose 1.37% against the USD and closed at USD1303.50 per ounce on Friday, amid weakness in the US dollar.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1308.10, with gold trading 0.35% higher against the USD from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1293.23, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1278.37. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1316.13, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1324.17.

The yellow metal is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver rose 2.51% against the USD and closed at USD15.70 per ounce on Friday, tracking gains in gold prices.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 15.81, with silver trading 0.67% higher against the USD from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 15.49, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 15.17. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 15.97, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 16.13.

The white metal is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Crude Oil rose 0.94% against the USD and closed at USD53.67 per barrel on Friday, amid worries over the US sanctions for Venezuela’s oil exports. Meanwhile, fresh figures from Baker Hughes disclosed that the number of active oil rigs climbed by 10 to 862 in the week ended 25 January 2019.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 53.35, with oil trading 0.60% lower against the USD from Friday’s close, amid escalating concerns of an increase in US crude production.

The pair is expected to find support at 52.87, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 52.38. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 53.88, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 54.40.

Crude oil is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

On Tuesday at 20:00 CET the House of Commons is voting on PM Theresa May's statement on her Brexit plan B including amendments. The vote is not legally binding but it is set to shed light on what the House of Commons wants. While there are many suggested amendments, it is up to the speaker to decide which ones the Commons gets to vote on. At the moment, the two most important amendments are the Cooper amendment and the amendment by the top of the so called 1922 Committee of the Conservative Party.

The Cooper amendment would give the House of Commons a vote on whether to ask for an extension of Article 50 or not (for up to nine months), in case May has not won support for a deal on 26 February. It seems likely it will pass given widespread Labour support and also backing from pro-EU Conservatives. This would be positive, as it would be another sign that a small majority in the Commons will not allow a ‘no deal Brexit' to happen.

The amendment from the 1922 Committee would replace the backstop with ‘alternative arrangements'. If this wins backing, PM May could go back to Brussels and tell what would be necessary to get the deal over the finish line but the EU and Ireland do not seem willing to change the backstop framework.

As we have argued for some time, the pressure on the politicians on all sides will increase, as we approach 29 March. This is also the case for the European Research Group (led by Jacob Rees-Mogg and consists of 60-80 Conservative MPs), who have begun to sound a bit more afraid of whether Brexit will actually happen or not (see e.g. Financial Times), which may force them to back May's deal eventually. At least it seems like some Conservatives are looking for a good reason to climb down the tree, as ‘May's deal is better than no Brexit'.

One good reason could be if Theresa May wins backing from her supporting party DUP from Northern Ireland. Recently, the DUP has softened its position on the much hated backstop, as it may accept the temporary ‘alternative arrangements', as suggested by the 1922 Committee amendment. Also the DUP is under increasing pressure that a ‘no deal' Brexit may lead to an independence vote in Northern Ireland, see The Sun. The problem for Theresa May is that even if she gets the support from the DUP and the Brexiteers, she will still need to persuade either the pro-EU Conservatives or get more Labour votes. So it is not set in stone that the DUP backing is enough.

We maintain our call that the two most likely outcomes are either May's deal (or something very similar) passing at a later stage as pressure builds on the politicians or a second EU referendum (40% and 30%, respectively).

The GBP has performed strongly over the past two weeks as the risk of a ‘no deal' Brexit appears to be declining. In our view, the rally in the GBP is fair given that the post Brexit outcome distribution for EUR/GBP looks increasingly skewed towards the downside. We look for EUR/GBP to trade within the 0.86-0.89 range short term. Technically, EUR/GBP looks increasingly oversold with the 14 days relative strength index (RSI) trading below 30 and we reckon that it would require more than the approval of the Cooper amendment - either in the form of higher probability that a deal could be passed soon or a call for a second referendum - to trigger a break below 0.86 at this stage

Dollar is trading generally softer as it's entering into an important week. There are a number of high profile events ahead, including US-China trade talk, FOMC rate decision and non-farm payrolls, as well as US government re-opening. But for today so far, Sterling is even softer as markets turns a bit cautious ahead of tomorrow's Brexit debate in the commons. New Zealand Dollar is so far the strongest, followed by Yen and Australian Dollar. With such a picture, it's easy to see the lack of direction in the risk markets.

In Asian markets:

• Nikkei closed down -0.60% at 20649.
• Hong Kong HSI is down -0.09%.
• China Shanghai SSE is down -0.18%.
• Singapore Strait Times is up 0.06%.
• Japan 10 year JGB yield is down -0.0022 at -0.002, turned negative