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Swiss Franc Reverses Its Gains In The Morning Session

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD slightly declined against the CHF and closed at 0.9981.

In economic news, Switzerland’s total sight deposits marginally rose to a level of CHF577.34 billion in the week ended 23 November, from CHF577.30 billion in the previous week.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.9986, with the USD trading 0.05% higher against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9963, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9940. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0001, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0016.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Loonie Extends Its Losses In The Asian Session

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.23% against the CAD and closed at 1.3251.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.3257, with the USD trading 0.05% higher against the CAD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3207, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3158. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3286, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3316.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Aussie Reverses Its Losses In The Asian Session

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD declined 0.29% against the USD and closed at 0.7219.

LME Copper prices rose 0.6% or $36.0/MT to $6246.0/MT. Aluminium prices declined 0.1% or $2.5/MT to $1920.0/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.7226, with the AUD trading 0.10% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

Elsewhere in China, Australia’s largest trading partner, industrial profits climbed 3.6% on an annual basis in October, compared to a rise of 4.1% in the prior month.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7201, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7175. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7264, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7301.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Gold: Yellow Metal Trading Lower This Morning

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Gold rose 0.46% against the USD and closed at USD1228.80 per ounce.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1228.10, with gold trading 0.06% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1222.70, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1217.30. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1234.00, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1239.90.

The yellow metal is trading between its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Silver: White Metal Trading On A Weaker Footing This Morning

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver declined 0.35% against the USD and closed at USD14.35 per ounce.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 14.34, with silver trading 0.07% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 14.25, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 14.17. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 14.48, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 14.63.

The white metal is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Crude Oil: Oil Trading Lower, Ahead Of API’s Weekly Crude Oil Stockpiles Data

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Crude Oil rose 1.72% against the USD and closed at USD51.59 per barrel, amid hopes that OPEC would approve production cuts in order to avoid excess oil supply in the market.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 51.55, with oil trading 0.08% lower against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 50.74, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 49.94. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 52.30, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 53.06.

Crude oil is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Traders Trimmed Bets on USD, GBP, JPY and AUD on Rising Uncertainty

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended November 20, NET LENGTH in USD Index persisted although bets were trimmed on both sides. All other major currencies stayed in NET SHORT positions. This came in line with the FX movement that the greenback strengthened against major currencies with the exception of Swiss franc. Speculative longs on USD index dropped -2 710 contracts while shorts slipped -1 537, reducing the NET LENGTH, by -1 173 contracts, to 39 340 contracts.

Concerning EUR and GBP futures, speculative long positions for the former dropped -4 227 contracts while shorts gained +5 983 contracts, raising NET SHORT to 47 229 for the week. NET SHORT for GBP futures decreased -3 629 contracts to 43 478. Bulls and bears shank their bets on sterling last week. Although UK and EU agreed on the final draft of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement, ratification by the UK Parliament next month is required. PM Theresa May has been using threat tactics, focusing on the drawbacks of a no-deal Brexit, to the deal done.

 

On safe-haven currencies, Net SHORT for CHF futures gained +1 023 contracts to 19 625. Bets gained on both longs and shorts. NET SHORT for JPY futures slid -2 229 contracts to 100 065 during the week. Bets shrank on both sides.

On commodity currencies . NET SHORT for AUD futures dropped -600 contracts to 59 180, while that for NZD futures decreased -1 521 contracts to 19 347. On the contrary, NET SHORT for CAD futures rose -3 498 contracts to 6 289. Canadian dollar lost ground in tandem with falling oil prices. Despite the fact that Middle Eastern countries have dominated the oil exports market, Canada indeed ranks number four in terms of the amount of crude oil exports, according to EIA's data. Therefore, the recent selloff in oil prices has direct impact on Canada's economy and the loonie.

 

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7195; (P) 0.7235; (R1) 0.7258; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 0.7325 continues. On the upside, sustained break of 0.7314 resistance will indicate medium term reversal. Further rally should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7020 at 0.7446 next. Nevertheless, failure to sustain above 0.7314, and break of 0.7164 support will retain bearishness and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.7020 low.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD's decline from 0.8135 could have completed at 0.7020 already, ahead of 0.6826 key support (2016 low). Decisive break of 0.7314 will confirm and bring strong rebound. But for now, we'd expect strong resistance from 0.7500 support turned resistance to limit upside. Medium term fall from 0.8135 should extend to take on 0.6826 low at a later stage.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3207; (P) 1.3234; (R1) 1.3282; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral at this point. With 1.3141 support intact, further rise is expected in the pair. On the upside, break of 1.3318 will extend the rally from 1.2781 to 1.3385 key resistance next. On the downside, break of 1.3141, however, will indicate short term topping and turn bias to the downside for 1.3056 support first.

In the bigger picture, current development revives the case that corrective fall from 1.3385 has completed at 1.2781 already. And whole up trend from 1.2061 (2016 low) is ready to resume. Break of 1.3385 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.2781 support holds.

CFTC Commitments of Traders – Bets on Commodities Shrank. Oil’s Outlook Dependent on OPEC

According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended November 20  NET LENGTH for crude oil, heating oil and gasoline futures continued to fall. Speculative long positions of crude oil futures declined -32 596 contracts, while shorts slipped -18 585 contracts, resulting in a fall in NET LENGTH, by -14 011 contracts, to 367 187 contracts. Both crude oil benchmarks plunged during the reporting week. The front-month WTI contract fell -2.88% while the Brent contract was down -3.99%. Oil prices have recovered over the past few trading days. The focus is on OPEC meeting on December 6. The members would discuss whether to cut output. For refined oil products, Net LENGTH for heating oil futures plunged -9 811 contracts to 7 402, while that for gasoline was down -2 203 contracts to 77 361. The front-month Nymext contract for heating oil dived -6% while RBOB gasoline dropped -3.2%. NET LENGTH for natural gas futures rose +7 914 contracts, to 30 260 contracts for the week. Yet, bets for longs and shorts declined markedly. The Nymex contract plunged -7.98% for the week.

On the precious metal complex, bets for gold and silver futures were trimmed on the long and short sides, while leaving both in NET SHORTs. Speculative long positions for the former slipped -2 9140 contracts, while shorts dived -21 053, resulting in a NET SHORT of 8 896 contracts. The benchmark Comex contract climbed +0.5% during the week in concern. For the latter, speculative long positions dropped -2 972 contracts while shorts plunged -9 389, trimming  NET SHORT, by -6 417 contracts, to 10 728 contracts.  Both gold and silver prices strengthened during the reporting week. The Comex gold futures gained +1.48% while silver soared +3.02%. Expectations of fewer Fed funds rate hike in 2019 due to slower economic growth helped support demand for precious metals. For PGMs, NET LENGTH of Nymex platinum futures dropped -206 contracts to 21 785 while that for palladium added +884 contracts to 14 264.