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Euro-Zone’s Construction Output Rebounded In September

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR rose 0.40% against the USD and closed at 1.1454.

Data revealed that the Euro-zone's seasonally adjusted construction output rebounded 2.0% on a monthly basis in September, following a revised fall of 0.6% in the prior month. Moreover, the region's seasonally adjusted current account surplus narrowed to €17.0 billion in September, compared to a revised surplus of €24.3 billion in the previous month.

In the US, data showed that the US NAHB housing market index dropped to a level of 60.0 in November, hitting its lowest level since August 2016 and more than market consensus for a drop to a level of 67.0. The index had registered a reading of 68.0 in the preceding month.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.1454, with the EUR trading flat against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.1411, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1367. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1481, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1507.

Moving ahead, investors would closely monitor Germany's producer price index for October, set to release in a while. Later in the day, the US housing starts and building permits, both for October, will be on investors radar.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

British Pound Trading Slightly Lower This Morning

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP rose 0.22% against the USD and closed at 1.2864, as British Prime Minister, Theresa May, sought to win support for her draft Brexit deal.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2859, with the GBP trading a tad lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2808, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2757. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2897, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2935.

Going forward, investors would keep an eye on UK’s CBI trends total orders for November, scheduled to release in a few hours.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.58; (P) 128.82; (R1) 129.18; More....

Outlook in EUR/JPY remains unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral first. As long as 130.14 resistance holds, deeper decline is in favor in the cross. Below 127.49 will target 126.63 support first. Break there will resume whole fall from 133.12 and target 124.08/89 support zone. On the upside, however, break of 130.14 will resume the rebound from 126.63 towards 133.12 resistance.

In the bigger picture, as long as 124.08 key resistance turn supported holds, larger up trend from 109.03 (2016 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 137.49 structural resistance will target 141.04/149.76 resistance zone next. However, decisive break of 124.08 will argue that such rise from 109.03 has completed and turn outlook bearish. In that case, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 119.90.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1411; (P) 1.1438; (R1) 1.1482; More.....

At this point, EUR/USD is still limited below 1.1499 resistance. Near term outlook remains bearish for further decline. On the downside break of 1.1363 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 1.1215 low first. However, on the upside, firm break of 1.1499 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bullish for 1.1814 resistance again.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 medium term top has just resumed and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1814 resistance is now needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong rebound.

Japanese Yen Reverses Its Gains In The Morning Sessions

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.17% against the JPY and closed at 112.48.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 112.56, with the USD trading 0.07% higher against the JPY from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 112.35, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 112.14. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 112.82, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 113.08.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2802; (P) 1.2843; (R1) 1.2891; More...

No change in GBP/USD's outlook. Intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. Also, price actions from 1.2661 are viewed as a consolidation pattern. Break of 1.2692 will bring retest of 1.2661 first. Firm break there will resume the larger down trend from 1.4376. On the upside, sustained break of 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.2905) could extend the consolidation with another rise. But even in case of strong rally, upside should be limited by 1.3316 fibonacci level to bring down trend resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA. The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it's resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.

Swiss Franc Extends Its Gains In The Morning Session

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.67% against the CHF and closed at 0.9932.

In economic news, Switzerland’s total sight deposits rose to a level of CHF577.3 billion in the week ended 16 November, from CHF577.2 billion in the previous week.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.9926, with the USD trading 0.06% lower against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9896, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9865. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9982, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0037.

Trading trend in the Swiss Franc today is expected to be determined by the release of Switzerland’s trade balance data for October, set to release in a while.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9965; (P) 1.0026; (R1) 1.0062; More...

The break of 0.9952 support suggests short term topping in USD/CHF at 1.0128, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias is turned to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 0.9541 to 1.0128 at 0.9904 first. Break will put 0.9848 structural support into focus. On the upside, above 1.0006 minor resistance will indicate that the pull back has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.0128 high.

In the bigger picture, the pullback from 1.0067 has completed at 0.9541 already. And rise from 0.9186 is likely resuming. Firm break of 1.0067 will pave the way to retest 1.0342 key resistance. We'd be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside to bring another medium term fall to extend long term range trading. However, break of 0.9848 near term support will dampen this view and bring deeper decline back to 0.9541 support and possibly below.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.36; (P) 112.61; (R1) 112.81; More..

Intraday bias remains on the downside for 113.37 support and possibly below. Decline from 114.20 is seen as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 114.54. Downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 113.30 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 114.54/73 key resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Loonie Trading A Tad Higher In The Asian Session

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.09% against the CAD and closed at 1.3171.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.3166, with the USD trading slightly lower against the CAD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3143, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3121. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3195, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3225.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.