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There are 2 ways to analyze forex: technical analysis – forecasting the trend direction based on indicators and historical data and fundamental analysis which is based on statistical data, news, events.

Economic calendar is one of the most effective tools for analyzing the market, which is actively used by traders. It is a kind of news summary indicating the time of their release and the impact on particular currency. The calendar consists of all the significant upcoming events based on which the trader can foresee the possible behavior of the price.

Many factors affect the Forex market – economic reports, speeches, central banks meetings. They vary in degree of importance and are divided into three categories: low, medium and high. The more significant the event is, the more volatility can be expected after publication. This should be taken into account in forex trading.

Economic and political events increase market volatility, the price may rise or fall significantly. Some traders choose trading at the time of the news release, while others try to avoid it. Traders who prefer news trading open orders during the publication of important macroeconomic statistics and make profit from the increasing volatility and trend impulses.

The economic calendar is available on thematic and analytical resources and websites of forex brokers, including the official JustForex website.

How to use economic calendar

It is worthwhile to get acquainted with the structure of the economic calendar in more detail. The calendar is presented in a table with columns and rows. Let's look at the economic calendar from JustForex and examine the structure:

1. Date – the time when the publication of the relevant news is planned.
2. Time left – the time before the event. If there is the "Done" mark, the event has already passed.
3. Event – the name of event. If you want to see the detailed information, left click on the event.
4. Impact – degree of influence, displays how the particular news affects the currency. There are three degrees – Low, Medium and High. As a rule, High means that after the announcement of that news, a sharp rise or fall is expected.
5. Previous – the previous value.
6. Consensus – the forecasted value.
7. Actual – the current value. If the line is highlighted with green, the result turned to be better than expected, red – worse than expected, and gray – the forecast was correct.
8. Timezone – here you can choose the time zone. It is important to consider the difference in time zones.

What news is worth paying attention to?

News marked with Medium and High can greatly affect the price movement. Such news can cause a sharp rise in the exchange rate or make it fall.

The following news influence the market the most:

• change in key interest rates;
• employment and unemployment changes;
• inflation data;
• economic growth of the country;
• indexes of business activity in various sectors of the economy.

Trading on the news, a trader can get a high profit. For example, Nonfarm Payrolls is very important US economic indicator, the dollar reacts to it particularly strongly. It displays the change in the number of people employed in the nonfarm sector. The publication of Nonfarm Payrolls is considered to be an indicator that makes the market move. After its publication, the response of the forex market is usually very powerful.

Important statistics cause significant impulses and increase volatility. So, it is very important to monitor the news in advance in order to know the time of publication and what trading instruments it will affect.

Pivot (invalidation): 0.9945

Our preference Long positions above 0.9945 with targets at 0.9980 & 1.0000 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 0.9945 look for further downside with 0.9930 & 0.9915 as targets.

Comment The RSI has just landed on its neutrality area at 50% and is turning up.

Pivot (invalidation): 2798.00

Our preference Short positions below 2798.00 with targets at 2749.00 & 2728.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 2798.00 look for further upside with 2818.00 & 2846.75 as targets.

Comment The RSI is mixed.

Pivot (invalidation): 11620.00

Our preference Short positions below 11620.00 with targets at 11500.00 & 11460.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 11620.00 look for further upside with 11680.00 & 11730.00 as targets.

Comment As Long as the resistance at 11620.00 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 11500.00 remains high.

Pivot (invalidation): 68.55

Our preference Long positions above 68.55 with targets at 69.75 & 70.35 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 68.55 look for further downside with 68.20 & 67.80 as targets.

Comment The RSI is mixed to bullish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.28; (P) 146.77; (R1) 147.53; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains mildly on the upside at this point. Corrective pull back from 149.70 could have completed at 145.81, ahead of 145.67 key support. Break of 149.70 will confirm resumption of whole rise from 139.88. However, firm break of 145.67 will suggest that the rebound from 139.88 has completed and turn near term outlook bearish again.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that GBP/JPY has successfully defended 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47). And, the rally from 122.36 (2016 low) is still intact. Such medium to long term rise would extend through 156.96 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 145.67 near term support holds. However, break of 145.67 will turn focus back to 139.29/47 key support zone.

Pivot (invalidation): 14.5800

Our preference Long positions above 14.5800 with targets at 14.7200 & 14.7700 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 14.5800 look for further downside with 14.5300 & 14.4700 as targets.

Comment The RSI is mixed to bullish.

Pivot (invalidation): 1223.00

Our preference Long positions above 1223.00 with targets at 1231.00 & 1233.50 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 1223.00 look for further downside with 1221.00 & 1218.50 as targets.

Comment The RSI is supported by a rising trend line.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.80; (P) 129.24; (R1) 130.03; More....

EUR/JPY is staying below 130.29 minor resistance despite today's rebound. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 130.29 will in turn suggest completion of fall from 133.12. In this case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 133.12 high. On the downside, break of 128.32 will target 127.85 support first. Break will confirm completion of rebound from 124.89 at 133.12 and bring retest of this low.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/JPY could have defended key support level of 124.08 key resistance turned support. And, the larger up trend from 109.03 (2016 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 137.49 structural resistance will target 141.04/149.76 resistance zone next. This will be the preferred case as long as 127.85 near term support holds. However, break of 127.85 will turn focus back to 124.08 key support level.

The pound strengthened against the USD on Friday, as UK's Brexit Secretary Raab, implied that the UK could show some flexibility regarding the Irish border issue. Bloomberg reported that the UK may be dropping the requirement for the Irish border backstop issue to have a fixed end date, in order to achieve a breakthrough in the Brexit negotiations. UK's PM Theresa May, will be explaining her Brexit strategy in parliament today, in an effort to reassure it. Headlines could be made today, as she is under pressure from hard Brexiteers and volatility could rise for the pound.

Cable strengthened on Friday, clearly breaking the 1.3025 (S1) resistance line (now turned to support). The pound is expected to be heavily Brexit driven (inner political stage as well as Brexit negotiations with EU) in the next few days as there is an absence of important financial releases. Should there be negative headlines regarding the UK political scene or the ongoing Brexit negotiations we could see the pound weakening and vice versa. Technically it should be noted that the pair has broken the downward trendline incepted since the 16th of October, hence we lift our bearish bias. Should the bears be in charge of the pair's direction we could see the pair breaking the 1.3025 (S1) support line and aiming for the 1.2965 (S2) support barrier. Should on the other hand the pair's direction be dictated by the bulls, we could see the pair breaking the 1.3060 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 1.3145 (R2) resistance hurdle.

Euro strengthens on Brexit news, however remains shaky

The common currency strengthened against the USD on Friday, as the Brexit headlines reeled in. However, the common currency could experience volatility also due to the Italian budget deficit issue. Italy is expected to explain to the Commission the breach of rules until today. The recent Italian persistence on the planned deficit, could continue to exist in its reply. Should the Commission reject the explanations and the Italian budget, there could be sanctions for Italy, increasing volatility for the EUR.

EUR/USD strengthened yesterday, breaking the 1.1480 (S1) resistance line (now turned to support), testing the 1.1525 (R1) resistance level. As the pair broke the downward trendline incepted since the 16th of October, we lift our bearish bias. Should the market continue to favour the pair's long positions, we could see the pair breaking the 1.1525 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 1.1577 (R2) resistance level. Should the pair come under the market's selling interest, we could see it breaking the 1.1480 (S1) support line and aim for the 1.1430 (S2) support zone.

In today's other economic highlights:

In a rather poor in financial releases Monday, we get from Canada the wholesale sales growth rate for August.

As for the rest of the week:

On Tuesday, we get Eurozone's preliminary consumer confidence indicator for October. On Wednesday, we get from Sweden, Riksbank's interest rate decision, Germany's preliminary manufacturing PMI for October and Canada's BoC interest rate decision. On Thursday, we get Germany's GfK consumer sentiment indicator for November and the Ifo Business climate indicator for October. Be advised that Norgesbank, CBRT and ECB will be releasing their respective interest rate decisions on Thursday. On Friday, we get the US preliminary GDP growth rate for Q3.

EUR/USD 4H

Support: 1.1480 (S1), 1.1430 (S2), 1.1360 (S3)

Resistance: 1.1525 (R1), 1.1577 (R2), 1.1620 (R3)

GBP/USD 4H

Support: 1.3025 (S1), 1.2965 (S2), 1.2920 (S3)

Resistance: 1.3060 (R1), 1.3145 (R2), 1.3190 (R3)