Sample Category Title

Pivot (invalidation): 0.8900

Our preference Short positions below 0.8900 with targets at 0.8880 & 0.8865 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 0.8900 look for further upside with 0.8915 & 0.8925 as targets.

Comment As Long as the resistance at 0.8900 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 0.8880 remains high.

Pivot (invalidation): 7460

Our preference Long positions above 7460 with targets at 7790 & 8060 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 7460 look for further downside with 7270 & 7000 as targets.

Comment The RSI advocates for further upside

The common European currency has been trading in a medium-term triangle pattern against the Swiss Franc. The currency pair has been bouncing between the upper and bottom borders of the triangle pattern since May.

The exchange rate has been moving sideways during the past few weeks. Furthermore, the 55– days simple moving average has been driving the rate down with this time period.

Given that the EUR/CHF currency exchange rate has moved closer to the lower boundary of the said triangle pattern, a breakout is likely to occur during the following trading session.

The Eurozone single currency began appreciating against the New Zealand Dollar mid-June when it bounced off from the lower boundary at 1.6600. The currency pair reached a high level on July 3.

However, after reaching its high mark since the beginning of July, the exchange rate has been trading within 1.7120/1.7381 range for almost a month. This can be considered a sideways movement.

Given that the EUR/NZD currency exchange rate has been trading within 250 pips range for a month, it is unlikely that the position will change for the coming week. Moreover, technical indicators on the larger time-frame suggest a bullish sentiment during the following week.

The common European currency continued its decline on Thursday against the US Dollar, as the currency exchange rate reached below the cluster of levels of significance near the 1.1680 mark.

On Thursday morning, the currency pair was heading for the lower trend line of a large scale triangle pattern. The trend line most likely will be reached at the 1.1620 mark.

Watch the trend line to see, whether it holds and forces the rate into a rebound or passes the support line and reaches for the monthly S1 near the 1.16 level.

The medium term trend line, which held its ground on the GBP/USD charts at the end of August, has managed to provide enough downwards momentum for the currency rate to book a certain decline.

On Thursday morning it was discovered that the currency exchange rate seems to be descending in a junior channel down pattern. If the pattern holds its ground, the currency pair is set to decline down to the support of the weekly S1 at the 1.3047 level.

Meanwhile, a short term surge should take place in the borders of the descending pattern, if its support line holds.

Dukascopy Analytics already wrote in the Trading Idea published on Wednesday that the USD/JPY currency exchange rate, after massively surging on Tuesday and Wednesday, was set to decline or trade sideways.

On Thursday morning it was clear that both had occurred. The rate declined and began to trade sideways.

In regards to the future, it can be observed that a medium scale, rather long term ascending pattern is set to reveal itself in the future. Meanwhile, in the near term future, the direction is unclear, as the rate is squeezed in between levels of significance.

The yellow metal on Wednesday broke all the previously charted trend lines on the hourly chart of the yellow metal's price. However, the bullion did not fully ignore the trend lines, they managed to squeeze the commodity price prior to a short lived break out to the upside.

In regards to the near term future, the commodity price was located on Thursday just below the various simple moving averages that are used by Dukascopy Analytics. It is expected that these SMAs will force the price of the bullion lower.

The pair stands at the back foot on Thursday, with little positive impact from hawkish Fed and weighed by recent talks about higher tariff plan. Bulls were strongly rejected on Wednesday after rally stalled just ahead of key Fibo barrier at 112.18 (61.8% of 113.17/110.58 bear-leg) and subsequent strong pullback left long-legged daily Doji candle. Near-term risk is skewed lower, supported by weakening momentum and daily Tenkan-sen / Kijun-sen bear-cross, but comments from US President Trump could be the key trigger for dollar's weakness, as his recent ‘verbal interventions' managed to lower the greenback in several occasions. Stronger downside risk could be expected on break below 10SMA (111.33) which would signal formation of lower top (112.15) and risk slide towards key 111.58 support (26 July trough). Alternatively, break and close above 112.18 Fibo barrier is needed to neutralize bears and signal bullish continuation of bull-leg from 110.58. US jobs data tomorrow could generate stronger direction signals.

Res: 111.73, 112.18, 112.56, 113.17
Sup: 111.38, 111.22, 110.73, 110.58

Cable dipped to new almost two-weeks low at 1.3067 in early European trading on Thursday, extending post-Fed weakness.

Probe through higher base at 1.3065 was initial bearish signal, as bearish configuration of daily techs suggests further easing.

The pair is awaiting decision from BoE today, which is likely to provide stronger signal.

Traders do not expect spectacular action after the central bank announces it verdict, but bears could be limited if BoE opts for widely expected ‘dovish hike’.

On the other side, pound could come under increased pressure on central bank’s unexpected decision to keep rates unchanged.

Initial barrier lays at 1.3122 (10SMA), followed by falling 20/30SMA’s (1.3155/68) and bear-channel upper boundary (1.3207).

At the downside, sustained break below 1.3085 base would open way towards psychological 1.30 level and key support at 1.2957 (19 July low).

Res: 1.3122, 1.3155, 1.3168, 1.3207
Sup: 1.3067, 1.3055, 1.3000, 1.2957