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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1535; (P) 1.1567; (R1) 1.1626; More...

EUR/CHF reaches as high as 1.1603 so far as rebound from 1.1445 extends. However, price actions from 1.1445 are viewed as a corrective pattern. Hence, intraday bias remains neutral. Also, near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1639 resistance holds. On the downside, break of will resume the corrective fall from 1.1832 and target 1.1355 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.1832 at 1.1372.) At this point, we'd expect strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. Nevertheless, break of 1.1639 will suggest short term reversal and turn bias back to the upside for 1.1832 high.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 1.1832 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. As long as 1.1198 resistance turned support holds, we'd still expect another rise through prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2881; (P) 1.2941; (R1) 1.3023; More....

USD/CAD's rally is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Medium term rebound from 1.2061 is now extended to target 1.3065 fibonacci level next. On the downside, below 1.2888 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will now stay bullish as long as 1.2757 resistance turned support holds.

In the bigger picture, strong break of 1.2919 resistance adds much credence to the bullish case. That is larger down trend from 1.4589 has completed at 1.2061, drawing support from 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 first. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. This will be the preferred case now as long as 1.2687 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7737; (P) 0.7754; (R1) 0.7782; More...

AUD/USD's consolidation from 0.7712 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. Also with 0.7892 resistance intact, near term outlook remains mildly bearish. Break of 0.7712 will resume the decline from 0.8135 and target 100% projection of 0.8135 to 0.7758 from 0.7988 at 0.7611. Break there will put 0.7500 key support into focus.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we'd expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2281; (P) 1.2323 (R1) 1.2376; More....

Despite the rally attempt, EUR/USD staying below 1.2363 minor resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Break of 1.2363 should extend the rebound from 1.2154 to retest 1.2555 high. Firm break there will carry larger bullish implication. On the downside, break of 1.2154 would revive the case of rejection by 1.2516 key fibonacci level and trend reversal. Outlook will be turned bearish for 38.2% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1708.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3763; (P) 1.3789; (R1) 1.3824; More....

GBP/USD's corrective recovery from 1.3711 is still in progress and is pressing 4 hour 55 EMA. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. And, near term outlook is still mildly bearish with 1.4144 resistance intact. Correction from 1.4345 would extend to 1.3651 resistance turned support and below. At this point, such fall is viewed as a corrective move. Hence, we'll look for strong support from 38.2% retracement of 1.1946 to 1.4345 at 1.3429 to contain downside and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3038 support holds, medium term outlook in GBP/USD will remains bullish. Rise from 1.1946 is at least correcting the long term down from 2007 high at 2.1161. Further rally would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466. However, GBP/USD fails to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 1.4259) so far. Break of 1.3038 support, will suggest that rise from 1.1946 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for retesting this low.

As expected, the QE figures for February showed PSPP share remained around 70% of the new purchase rate of EUR30bn. This is in line with expectations of the new purchase rate as of January this year. We continue to expect around 70% of the total APP will be allocated to the PSPP.

The major countries were bought close to the capital key, as there was no change in the cumulated capital key deviations among the major countries compared to January.

The weighted average maturity of German PSPP purchases increased significantly from 6.8 to 12.2 years. However, we emphasise that with an increasing amount of redemptions, one should be cautious when reading these estimates. If there were any PSPP redemptions in the ECB's holdings (for example, the OBL Feb-18 (org. 5Y bond) matured in February), this could 'distort' our average monthly maturity estimates. Hence, redemptions could add volatility to these figures going forward. We assign the significantly higher WAM to this.

The additional redemption details covering Feb-2019 underscore the presence of redemptions, with total QE redemptions in Feb-19 amounting to EUR11.8bn, of which EUR8.8bn is in PSPP. Total PSPP redemptions through to Feb-19 are EUR141bn

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9357; (P) 0.9382; (R1) 0.9423; More...

USD/CHF recovered ahead of 0.9321 minor support. But upside is limited below 0.9490 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 0.9321 will indicate completion of the rebound from 0.9186. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.9186 first. Break will resume larger down trend to 0.9115 projection level. On the upside, break of 0.9490 will revive the case of near term reversal, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. In that case, outlook will be turned bullish.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.0342 is seen as a medium term down trend. Deeper decline should be seen to 100% projection of 1.0342 to 0.9420 from 1.0037 at 0.9115. Break will target 161.8% projection at 0.8545. In any case, sustained trading above 55 day EMA is needed to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish even in case of strong rebound.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD rose 0.26% against the USD and closed at 0.7765.

LME Copper prices declined 0.5% or $33.0/MT to $6850.0/MT. Aluminium prices declined 0.4% or $9.0/MT to $2135.0/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.7779, with the AUD trading 0.18% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The RBA, in a widely expected move, decided to keep the official cash rate on hold at 1.50%, on the backdrop of weak wage growth and stubbornly low inflation. In a post-meeting statement, the central bank stated that it now expects the Australian economy to grow faster in 2018 than last year, while inflation is forecasted to remain low for some time.

On the macro front, Australia’s seasonally adjusted retail sales rebounded less-than-expected by 0.1% MoM in January, compared to a drop of 0.5% in the previous month, while markets were expecting retail sales to advance 0.4%.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7739, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7699. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7806, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7833.

Going forward, a speech by the RBA Governor, Philip Lowe, due overnight, would be eyed by traders. Additionally, Australia’s 4Q GDP figures as well as AiG performance of construction index for February, will keep investors on their toes.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR rose 0.15% against the USD and closed at 1.2337, after Germany's Social Democrats decisively voted to form a grand coalition with Angela Merkel's conservatives, thereby ending a prolonged period of political uncertainty in the Euro-bloc's largest economy.

In economic news, the Euro-zone's final Markit services PMI dropped more than initially estimated to a level of 56.2 in February, while the preliminary print had indicated a fall to a level of 56.7. In the prior month, the PMI had registered a reading of 58.0. Additionally, the region's seasonally adjusted retail sales eased 0.1% on a monthly basis in January, meeting market expectations and declining for the second straight month. Retail sales had registered a revised drop of 1.0% in the prior month.

In other economic news, the region's Sentix investor confidence index fell more-than-anticipated to a level of 24.0 in March, as political uncertainty in German and Italy weighed on investors' morale. In the prior month, the index had registered a level of 31.9, while market participants had envisaged for a fall to a level of 30.9.

Separately, activity in Germany's services sector eased to a 3-month low level of 55.3 in February, confirming the flash estimate. In the prior month, the PMI had registered a reading of 57.3.

Macroeconomic data released in the US showed that the ISM non-manufacturing PMI declined less-than-expected to a level of 59.5 in February, after recording a 12-year high level of 59.9 in the previous month, while markets had expected for a drop to a level of 59.0.

On the contrary, the nation's final Markit services PMI climbed to a 6-month high level of 55.9 in February, meeting the preliminary print. The PMI had registered a level of 53.3 in the prior month.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2350, with the EUR trading 0.11% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2292, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2233. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2386, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2421.

Moving ahead, investors would direct their attention to Germany's Markit construction PMI for February, scheduled to release in a few hours. Further, the US factory orders as well as final durable goods orders for January, due to release later today, will be on investors' radar.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP rose 0.46% against the USD and closed at 1.3849, after latest data indicated that UK's services sector activity surged to a 4-month high level in February.

UK's Markit services PMI climbed more-than-estimated to a level of 54.5 in February, expanding at its fastest pace since October 2017 and indicating that the sector regained momentum. The PMI had registered a reading of 53.0 in the previous month, while markets were anticipating for a rise to a level of 53.3.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.3844, with the GBP trading slightly lower against the USD from yesterday's close.

Overnight data revealed that UK's BRC retail sales across all sectors advanced 0.6% on an annual basis in February, beating market expectations for a gain of 0.5%. In the prior month, retail sales across all sectors had registered a similar rise.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3782, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3719. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3892, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3939.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.