Sample Category Title

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.36% against the JPY and closed at 107.36.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 107.2, with the USD trading 0.15% lower against the JPY from yesterday's close.

The Japanese Yen gained ground against the USD, after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) reduced the amount of super-long Japanese government bonds (JGBs) it offered to buy at its regular debt buying operation.

On the macro front, Japan's preliminary industrial production retreated more-than-anticipated by 6.6% on a monthly basis in January, dipping to its lowest level since March 2011. In the previous month, industrial production had registered a rise of 2.9%, while investors had envisaged for a fall of 4.0%.

Further, the nation's retail trade registered a fall of 1.8% on a monthly basis in January, higher than market expectations for a drop of 0.6%. In the previous month, retail trade had climbed 0.9%. On the contrary, the nation's large retailers' sales rose 0.5% MoM in January, exceeding market expectations for an advance of 0.4%. In the prior month, large retailers' sales had risen 1.1%.

The pair is expected to find support at 106.77, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 106.35. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 107.65, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 108.11.

Going ahead, traders would eye Japan's final Nikkei manufacturing PMI and the consumer confidence index, both for February, due to release tomorrow.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.18% against the CHF and closed at 0.9388.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.9399, with the USD trading 0.12% higher against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9366, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9334. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9424, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9450.

Looking ahead, Switzerland’s ZEW economic expectations index and the KOF leading indicator, both for February, set to release in a few hours, will be on investors’ radar.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5663; (P) 1.5699; (R1) 1.5737; More....

EUR/AUD is still bounded in the consolidation pattern from 1.5816. Intraday bias stays neutral. Also, near term outlook will remain cautiously bullish with 1.5606 support holds. On the upside, break of 1.5816 should now confirm resumption of medium term rise from 1.3264. In that case, EUR/AUD should target 1.6587 key long term resistance. Meanwhile, firm break of 1.5606 will argue that a short term top is formed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.5520) and below.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 1.3624 is not completed yet. Sustained break of 1.5770 will extend the rise to retest 1.6587 (2015 high). However, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, break of 1.4949 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.5770 at 1.4950) will indicate medium term reversal. And there is prospect of retesting 1.3624 low in that bearish case.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.73% against the CAD and closed at 1.2772.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2773, with the USD trading a tad higher against the CAD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2707, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2641. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2809, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2845.

With no key macroeconomic releases in Canada today, investors would await Canada’s GDP data for December, due to release on Friday.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1459; (P) 1.1510; (R1) 1.1537; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral as the consolidation from 1.1445 is still in progress. Outlook stays mildly bearish with 1.1639 resistance intact and deeper decline is expected. Break of 1.1445 will resume the corrective fall from 1.1832 and target 1.1355 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.1832 at 1.1372.) At this point, we'd expect strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 1.1832 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. As long as 1.1198 resistance turned support holds, we'd still expect another rise through prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000.

Revised Short Term Elliott Wave view in Gold suggests that the yellow metal is still correcting cycle from 12/13/2017 low ($1236.3) as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Up from 12/13/2017 low, Intermediate wave (W) ended at $1366.06 at 1/25/2018, and Intermediate wave (X) pullback remains in progress as a double three. Down from $1366.06, Wave W of (X) ended at $1306.80 and wave X of (X) ended at $1357.12. Near term, while bounces stay below $1361.4, expect Gold to extend lower in wave Y of (X) towards $1288.1 – $1302.11 before the rally resumes. We don’t like selling the yellow metal and expect buyers to appear from the above area for at least a 3 waves bounce if not an extension to new high.

Gold 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2702; (P) 1.2739; (R1) 1.2811; More....

USD/CAD's rebound from 1.2246 resumed after brief consolidation. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.2919 key resistance. We'd be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside. But a firm there will carry larger bullish implication. On the downside, below 1.2614 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.2450 and below.

In the bigger picture, the rebound from 1.2246 is mixing up the medium term outlook. Nonetheless, USD/CAD is staying below falling 55 week EMA (now at 1.2771), hence, the bearish case is in favor. That is, fall from 1.4689 is not completed yet. Sustained break of 1.2061 key support will carry larger bearish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424. However, firm break of 1.2919 will revive the case of medium term reversal and turn outlook bullish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7758; (P) 0.7813; (R1) 0.7844; More...

At this point, AUD/USD is still staying above 0.7758 support and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, below 0.7758 will resume the fall from 0.8135 and target 0.7500 key near term support. On the upside, above 0.7988 will extend the rebound to retest 0.8135. So far, there is no sign of range breakout yet and 0.7500/8135 could hold for a while.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we'd expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.84; (P) 107.25; (R1) 107.74; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as range trading continues. On the upside, break of 108.27 will be the first sign of near term reversal and will target 110.47 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, below 106.37 minor support will bring retest of 105.54 low. Break of 105.54 will extend the larger decline from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9359; (P) 0.9388; (R1) 0.9417; More...

USD/CHF's rebound form 0.9186 extends higher but it's still limited below 0.9469 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the upside, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 0.9469 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bullish for 55 day EMA (now at 0.9513) and above. On the downside, below 0.9321 minor support will bring retest of 0.9186. Break there will extend the larger down trend to 0.9115 medium term projection level next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.0342 is seen as a medium term down trend. Deeper decline should be seen to 100% projection of 1.0342 to 0.9420 from 1.0037 at 0.9115. Break will target 161.8% projection at 0.8545. In any case, sustained trading above 55 day EMA is needed to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish even in case of strong rebound.