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DAX Yawns As German PMIs A Mixed Bag

The DAX is unchanged in the Wednesday session. Currently, the index is trading at 13,557.50, down 0.02% on the day. On the release front, German and Eurozone PMIs were mixed, but continue to show expansion in the manufacturing and services sectors. German Flash Manufacturing PMI slowed to 61.2, shy of the estimate of 63.2 points. There was better news from Flash Services PMI, which accelerated to 57.0. above the forecast of 55.6 points. The trend was similar in the eurozone, as Flash Manufacturing PMI dipped to 59.6, missing the estimate of 60.4 points. Flash Services PMI improved to 57.6, missing the forecast of 56.5 points. On Thursday, Germany releases Ifo Business Climate, and the ECB will make an interest rate announcement.

The German economy is off to a solid start in 2018. The services sector is performing well, as the January Services PMI hit 57.0, its highest level since 2011. Manufacturing PMI missed the estimate, but the reading of 61.2 points to sharp expansion. Job creation continues to gather steam, and companies are exuding strong confidence, despite the political uncertainty. President Angela Merkel is holding coalition talks with the Social Democrats, but negotiations could take weeks before a new government is formed.

The ECB meets on Thursday, and traders should not expect any dramatics at the first policy meeting of 2018. The Bank is expected to retain its pledge to continue buying bonds under its asset-purchase program (QE), which was extended until September. The ECB has trimmed QE from EUR 60 billion to 30 billion/mth, but is likely to hold interest rates for 3-6 months after that. Still, ECB policymakers have hinted that the Bank could wind up QE in September, and this pushed the euro higher in recent weeks. If ECB President Mario Draghi hints at an end to QE, the euro will likely gain ground. Draghi may prefer to keep a low profile until March, after policymakers have had a chance to review updated economic forecasts.

CRUDE OIL Rising

Crude oil is slowly increasing. Hourly resistance is given at 64.89 (15/01/2018 high). Strong support is given at 60.93 (05/01/2018 low). Expected to keep increasing as demand seems very strong.

In the long-term, crude oil has recovered after its sharp decline last year. However, we consider that further weakness is very likely. For the time being the pair lies in an upside momentum since June 2017. Support lies at 42.20 (16/11/2016) while new resistance point is located at 77.83 (20/11/2014). Crude oil is trading largely above its 200 DMA.

SILVER Bouncing

Silver is continuing its bounce moves to slightly higher ends after a sharp correction (12/08/2017 low at 15.61). The short-term technical structure is negative as long as prices remain below the hourly resistance at 17.43 (15/01/2018 high). A key resistance stands at 18.21 (08/09/2017 high). Hourly support at 16.80 is broken. New support point is at 16.75 (23/01/2018 low).

In the long-term, the trend is rather negative. Further downside is very likely. The pair is trading at its 200 DMA. Resistance is located at 21.58 (10/07/2014 high). Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009).

GOLD Heading Higher

Gold is pushing higher and is expected to break the 1'345 resistance point (15/01/2018 high). Hourly support is maintained at 1'306 (04/01/2018 low). The commodity is targeting a strong resistance point at 1357 (08/09/2017 high).

In the long-term, the technical structure suggests that there is a growing upside momentum. A break of 1392 (17/03/2014) is necessary in order to confirm it. A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low).

BITCOIN Flattening

Bitcoin is trading mixed. Hourly support is at 9'185 (17/01/2018 low). In the short-term, the technical structure suggests a continued bearish bias. Expected to show further decline.

In the long-term, the digital currency has had an exponential growth but also presented important downturns. There is decent likelihood that the currency could stabilize between 9'000 - 12'000 in 2018. Bitcoin is trading far above its 200 DMA (5K+ gap).

EUR/CHF Heading Lower

EUR/CHF is trading slightly lower. The pair is trading between support at 1.1710 (19/01/2018 low) and resistance at 1.1832 (15/01/2018 high). Expected to show further short-term downside moves.

In the longer term, the technical structure has reversed. Strong resistance is given at 1.20 (level before the unpeg). Yet, the ECB's slowing QE program is likely to cause buying pressures on the euro, which should weigh in favour of the EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).

EUR/GBP Downward Oriented

EUR/GBP is trading mixed. The pair is distancing the resistance at 0.8929 (01/12/2017 high) and endures downward pressure. Support at 0.8761 (14/12/2017 low) is being monitored. Expected to show further decline.

In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from lows in 2015. The technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading below the range of its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 (psychological level)

AUD/USD Increasing

AUD/USD's upside pressures are growing. Hourly resistance given at 0.8040 (19/01/2018) is near. Support stands at 0.7849 (12/01/2018 low). The technical structure indicates further shortterm upside move.

In the long-term, the trend is turning positive. Key supports stands at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low). A break of the key resistance at 0.8164 (14/05/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

USD/CAD Decreasing

USD/CAD is bouncing downward and turning back direction to the 1.2370 (17/01/2018 low) support point. Hourly resistance is given at 1.2520 (17/01/2018 high) while further resistance given at 1.2589 (01/01/2018) is momentarily out of reach. The technical structure indicates that additional weakness is achievable.

In the longer term, the pair has broken longterm support that can be found at 1.2461 (16/03/2015 low). New support point is identified at 1.2101 (17/04/2015 low). Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). The pair is likely to head lower. The pairs is trading below 200 DMA.

USD/CHF Renewed Bearish Pressures

USD/CHF is trading lower. Hourly support at 0.9533 (19/01/2017) draw near while resistance at 0.9668 (17/01/2017 high) moves away. Expected to show further short-term downside move.

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.