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Euro Trading On A Stronger Footing This Morning
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR rose 0.61% against the USD and closed at 1.2244.
The greenback nursed losses against its key counterparts, as investors were grappled with concerns of a possible US government shutdown as lawmakers struggled to forge a federal budget deal.
However, the US Dollar recouped some of its losses, after data showed that first time claims for the US unemployment benefits plunged more-than-expected to a level of 220.0K in the week ended 13 January, hitting its lowest level since February 1973, thus painting a rosier picture of the nation's jobs market. Markets had expected initial jobless claims to fall to a level of 249.0K, after recording a reading of 261.0K in the prior week.
On the other hand, the nation's housing starts fell more-than-anticipated by 8.2% on a monthly basis to an annual rate of 1192.0K in December, posting its biggest drop in just over a year, amid a steep decline in the construction of single-family housing units. Housing starts had registered a revised reading of 1299.0K in the previous month, while investors had envisaged for a fall to a level of 1275.0K. Further, the nation's building permits eased less-than-expected by 0.1% MoM to an annual rate of 1302.0K in December, compared to a revised level of 1303.0K in the prior month. Markets were expecting building permits to drop to a level of 1295.0K.
Other data indicated that the US Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index declined to a 5-month low level of 22.2 in January, more than market consensus for a drop to a level of 25.0. In the previous month, the index had registered a level of 26.2.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2262, with the EUR trading 0.15% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.2201, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2139. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2297, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2331.
Going ahead, traders would look forward to the Euro-zone's current account data for November and Germany's producer price index for December, scheduled to release in a few hours. Moreover, the US flash Michigan consumer sentiment index for January, slated to release later in the day, will attract a lot of market attention.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Pound Trading Higher This Morning, Ahead Of Britain’s Retail Sales Data
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP rose 0.63% against the USD and closed at 1.3896.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.3914, with the GBP trading 0.13% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.3838, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3762. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3957, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.4000.
Trading trend in the Pound today is expected to be determined by the release of UK's retail sales figures for December, set to release in a few hours.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5254; (P) 1.5299; (R1) 1.5343; More....
Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral at this point. We're slightly favoring the case that pull back from 1.5770 has completed at 1.5153 already. Above 1.5446 will target a test on 1.5770 high. However, break of 1.5153 will resume the fall from 1.5770 to 1.4949 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.5770 at 1.4950).
In the bigger picture, decline from 1.5770 just breached 1.5226 key support briefly and recovered. The development is reviving the bullish case that rise from 1.3624 is still in progress. But considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, we'd prefer to see firm break of 1.5770 resistance to confirm. On the downside, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 1.4950) will likely bring retest of 1.3624 support. Overall, there is still prospect of another medium term rally as long as 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.6587 at 1.3506 holds.


EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1718; (P) 1.1746; (R1) 1.1764; More...
Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for the moment. Medium term rise could extend higher. However, considering relatively weak upside momentum as seen in daily MACD we'd still expect strong resistance below 1.2 handle to limit upside and bring medium term reversal. Break of 1.1683 support will be a early sign of reversal and turn focus to 1.1602 support.
In the bigger picture, while a medium term top could be around the corner, there is no change in the larger outlook. That is, long term rise from SNB spike low back in 2015 is still in progress and would extend. As long as 1.1198 resistance turned support holds, we'll hold on to this bullish view and expect another to prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000. Though, we'll reassess the outlook if 1.1198 is firmly taken out.


Japanese Yen Trading Higher In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.28% against the JPY and closed at 111.03.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 110.86, with the USD trading 0.15% lower against the JPY from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 110.55, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 110.23. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 111.33, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 111.79.
Next week, market participants would anxiously await the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) interest rate decision. Moreover, Japan’s inflation, flash Nikkei manufacturing PMI and trade balance data, all would keep investors on their toes.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.

Swiss Franc Trading On A Stronger Footing This Morning
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.77% against the CHF and closed at 0.9587.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.9569, with the USD trading 0.19% lower against the CHF from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.9536, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9502. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9630, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9690.
Ahead in the day, traders would focus on Switzerland’s producer and import prices data for December.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Loonie Reverses Its Gains In The Morning Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.38% against the CAD and closed at 1.2409.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2415, with the USD trading slightly higher against the CAD from yesterday's close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.2381, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2347. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2468, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2521.
Going ahead, Canada's manufacturing sales for November, set to release later today, will be on investors' radar.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2391; (P) 1.2438; (R1) 1.2464; More...
Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment as consolidation from 1.2354 continues. But again, as long as 1.2623 support turned resistance holds, deeper decline is expected. Break of 1.2354 will extend the fall from 1.2910 to retest 1.2061 low. However, sustained break of 1.2623 will argue that the fall has completed and turn bias back to the upside for 1.2919 resistance.
In the bigger picture, current development argues that rebound from 1.2061 has completed at 1.2919, rejected by 55 week EMA (now at 1.2850) and kept below 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. The development also suggests that long term fall from 1.4689 is not completed yet. Decisive break of 1.2061 low will target 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.2919 resistance holds.


AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7957; (P) 0.7982; (R1) 0.8023; More...
Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point. Further rally is expected as long as 0.7874 support holds. Above 0.8022 will extend the rise from 0.7500 to 0.8124 high. there will resume whole medium term rebound from 0.6826 and target key fibonacci level at 0.8451. On the downside, break of 0.7874 will indicate short term topping and turn bias to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 0.7774).
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that medium term rebound from 0.6826 is still in progress and could be resuming. Such rise could target 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.6826 (2016 low) at 0.8451. As such rise is seen as a corrective move, we'd expect strong resistance from 0.8451 to limit upside.


USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.69; (P) 111.09; (R1) 111.49; More...
USD/JPY failed to take out 4 hour 55 EMA and retreated. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Correction from 114.73 could have completed with three waves down to 110.18, ahead of 61.8% retracement of 107.31 to 114.73 at 110.14. Above 111.47 will target 113.38 resistance first. Break of 113.38 should confirm this bullish case. However, below 110.18 will extend the correction lower. But we'd again look for bottoming signal in next fall.
In the bigger picture, we're holding on to the view that correction from 118.65 is completed at 107.31. And medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is going to resume soon. Sustained break of 114.73 should affirm our view and send USD/JPY through 118.65. However, break of 107.31 will dampen this view and extend the medium term fall back to 98.97 low.


