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The Pound has been confined in a channel up against the New Zealand Dollar since mid-July. However, the pair failed to reach its upper boundary during the last wave up, as the rate reversed near the 1.9540 mark. The Pound has subsequently formed a minor descending channel the bottom boundary of which was tested on Thursday. Meanwhile, the given currency breached a short-term up-trend early in this session, thus pointing to a possible increase in price within this session. In case of a strong upside momentum, a possible upside target could be the 1.97 area, as the weekly and monthly R1s are located nearby. Subsequently, the pair could resume its current momentum south towards the lower boundary of the senior channel in the 1.91/92 area.

After making a rapid advance two days ago the currency exchange rate entered into consolidation phase, fluctuating between the 1.1837 support and the 1.1860 resistance levels. As the United States are having Thanksgiving holidays and there are scheduled no fundamental data releases in Europe, the pair is not expected to make any active movements today as well. In support of this assumption, the southern side remains protected by combined support formed by the monthly R1 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, while the northern side contains other barriers near the 1.1874 and 1.1860 marks. But, in general, the Euro is expected to continue gaining value against the Dollar in one-month long ascending channel and heading towards the 1.2000 level.

In line with expectations, the cable continued to gradually moving to the bottom after making a rebound from the upper edge of a currently active ascending channel that was additionally secured by resistance line at the 1.3338 mark.

In first hours of this trading session the pair managed to bypass the weekly R1 at 1.3300 and the 55-hour SMA at 1.3293, which suggests that the rate is likely to reach the opposite side of the channel by the end of the day. The only obstacle that might alter this scenario and push the pair back to the 1.3290 level is the rising 100-hour SMA. In the upcoming days the currency rate most probably is going to continue heading to the bottom, trying to return to an area near the 1.3230 mark.

Due to beginning of Thanksgiving holidays in the United States, which led to reduced liquidity, the currency rate indeed spent previous trading session between the weekly S1 at 111.40 and support at the 111.10 level. But as it made a rebound from the bottom trend-line of a two-week long descending channel, in first hours of this trading session the surge resumed. At the moment, the pair is the testing the 55-hour SMA, which might lead to short-term retreat. Nevertheless, this barrier should not prevent the pair from reaching the opposite side of the pattern. Thus the general question is whether the buck will manage to soar to the pre-fall 112.10 level or it will be forced to make another rebound amid additional pressure exercised by the falling 100-hour SMA as well as the monthly S1 at 112.05.

On the one hand, in first half of the previous trading session the exchange rate expectedly tried to slip to the weekly PP at 1,287.22. On the other hand, without sufficient liquidity related to beginning of holidays in the United States the pair could not surge above resistance near the 1,293.00 either. As a result, it formed a minor symmetrical triangle, which is expected to be broken by the end of this week. The breakout to the bottom seems unlikely, as the aggregate market sentiment remains 54% bullish and the pair is generally advancing in an ascending channel. But even if it happens the plunge is unlikely to go below the above weekly PP that is additionally backed up by the 55- and 100-hour SMAs. However, in case of surge it is still doubtful that the pair will sneak above the 1,295.00 mark.

The Canadian Dollar depreciated significantly against the Greenback, as the report showed that the country's retail sales rose less than anticipated in September. The USD/CAD exchange rate jumped 35 pips or 0.28% to the 1.2719 mark and continued consolidation in the aforementioned area.

Statistics Canada revealed that retail sales increased far less than projected in the month of September, as stronger prices of gasoline were offset by a drop in purchases of clothing and vehicles, indicating cooler economic expansion and fuelling expectations for the Bank of Canada to keep rates unchanged until the next year. The report showed that the value of sales rose 0.1%, missing expectations for a 0.9% gain.

The Sterling was seen slightly stronger against the US Dollar, after the UK GDP growth report came in on Thursday. The GBP/USD currency pair added 17 base points or 0.13% to 1.3308 to continue fluctuating between the 1.3290 and 1.3315 marks.

The Office for National Statistics said that the second estimate for the Britain's GDP growth confirmed a 0.4% quarterly growth pace in the three months period to September. Consumer spending was the largest contributor to the increase, despite relatively solid inflation growth since the Pound's weakening after the Brexit vote. However, some questions arise that the country's reliance on consumer demand would not last with higher possibility of further weakening in household's spending.

The EUR/USD exchange rate was shaken sligtly over the course of Thursday, when several PMI reports for the Euro zone indicated that fresh growth momentum occured. The pair jumped 16 base point or 0.13% to the 1.18426 on the first PMI data for France.

Markit releases pointed to the Euro zone's businesses expansions, which was confirmed by stronger-than-anticipated figures. France was the strongest performer with the services PMI jumping to 60.2 versus 57.2 expected. Overall, the Index for the services industry in the Euro zone edged higher to 56.2, remaining above the 50.0 level indicating expansion in the industry. The report provided encouraging signs for the ECB to upgrade growth forecasts for 2017 and 2018 years.

With markets remaining partially closed on Friday for the Thanksgiving holiday week, the dollar was firmer in Asia, gaining on rising Treasury yields. In Japan, however, investors who also had a day off on Thursday, returned to their offices, pushing the yen lower as Japanese and Chinese stocks traded higher after a strong sell-off on Thursday.

The dollar index, which gauges the dollar’s strength against six major currencies, rose slightly from two-month lows on Thursday to 93.19 as US Treasury yields inched up late on Thursday. However, concerns over a persistent low inflation signaled by the Fed meeting minutes on late Wednesday and echoed by the Fed chair, Janet Yellen, on Tuesday continued to pressure the currency despite high expectations on a rate hike in December. Against the yen, the greenback was 0.26% up at 111.51. Safe-haven gold stood flat at $1,290.13 per ounce.

With economic releases lacking important US data today, the focus next week will turn to the next Fed chair, Jerome Powell, who will give a key speech in the Senate on Tuesday as well as to any encouraging updates regarding the US tax reforms which could give a lift to the dollar.

The euro held onto gains due to positive sentiment on the Eurozone’s economy following yesterday’s upbeat European business surveys on manufacturing and service industries. Readings on German Ifo business climate index released during early European trading hours today might also bring some volatility to the single currency today.

On the political front, German senior politicians pressured Merkel’s former coalition partner, the Social Democrats, to rethink forming a renewed coalition after they went into opposition in September’s elections. Yesterday afternoon, the leader of the SPD party, Martin Schulz attended a meeting with President Frank- Walter Steinmeier, who put efforts to resume coalition talks, avoiding the call of new elections for now.

Euro/dollar was moving sideways around 1.1843 during the session. Euro/pound was also flat at 0.8900.

In the UK, attention shifted back to Brexit developments after the release of a nonattractive Budget Statement for 2018 which slashed economic growth forecasts for the next four years. The British Prime Minister, Theresa May, will head to Brussels on Friday to meet the European Council President, Donald Tusk, at a summit with Eastern European nations, in an effort to break deadlocked Brexit negotiations and move discussions to future trade relations. But, progress on the talks might be disrupted as Ireland, who threats to veto Brexit talks, is in danger to hold snap elections after the opposition called the Deputy Prime Minister, Frances Fitzgerald to resign over his handling of a police scandal. Pound/dollar managed to rebound before the session-end to 1.3317 (+0.13%) after touching a session low at 1.3277.

Looking at oil prices, WTI crude and London-based Brent extended their uptrend above two-year highs amid expectations that the OPEC/non-OPEC members will agree to extend their supply cuts strategy in next week’s crucial meeting. Moreover, the shutdown of a key crude pipeline from Canada to the US following a spill last week as well as lower US inventories added further gains to oil markets. WTI crude jumped by 1.15% to $58.69 per barrel and Brent rose by 0.30% to 1.15%.

EUR/USD

Current level - 1.1851

The intraday bias is still positive, but due to the proximity of 1.1870 resistance, there is a risk of an intraday slide towards 1.1770. A break through 1.1870 will challenge 1.1940 area.

USD/JPY

Current level - 111.47

My outlook remains bullish against 111.00 support, for a rise to 111.90 resistance. A violation of the latter will challenge the crucial 112.70.

GBP/USD

Current level - 1.3290

The initial pullback below 1.3340 is limited above 1.3280 support and only a clear break through 1.3220 crucial low will signal a reversal of the whole upmove since 1.3060.