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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9795; (P) 0.9811; (R1) 0.9828; More....

As noted before, the rebound from 0.9420 could have completed at 1.0037 already. Deeper fall would be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.9420 to 1.0037 at 0.9565. We'll look for bottoming again below 0.9565. On the upside, break of 0.9946 resistance will indicate that the decline from 1.0037 has completed and bring retest of this resistance.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that USD/CHF has defended 0.9443 (2016 low) key support level again. Rise from 0.9420 could be a medium term up move and should target a test on 1.0342 high. This represents the upper end of a long term range that started back in 2015. In case pull back fro 1.0037 extends, we'd still expect the long term support at 0.9420 to hold.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3277; (P) 1.3307; (R1) 1.3333; More....

Focus in GBP/USD remains on 1.3337 resistance. Firm break there will argue that whole decline from 1.3651 is completed. And further rise should then be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.3651 to 1.3026 at 1.3412 first. Sustained break there will target a test on 1.3651. On the downside, though, break of 1.3212 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.3026 instead. And in this case, decline from 1.3651 will likely extend lower.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, GBP/USD hit strong resistance from the long term falling trend line. Current development is starting to favor that corrective rebound from 1.1946 low has completed at 1.3651. Decisive break of 1.2773 will confirm this bearish case and target a test on 1.1946 low next, with prospect of resuming the low term down trend. Nonetheless, break of 1.3320 resistance will restore the rise from 1.1946 for 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD rose 0.13% against the USD and closed at 0.7627.

LME Copper prices rose 0.3% or $23.0/MT to $6895.5/MT. Aluminium prices rose 0.2% or $5.0/MT to $2090.0/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.7619, with the AUD trading 0.1% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7604, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.759. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7636, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7654.

Next week, investors would keep a close watch on Australia’s AiG performance of manufacturing index, the HIA new home sales and building approvals data.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR rose 0.25% against the USD and closed at 1.1850, after the latest set of economic data suggested that robust economic recovery across the single currency bloc is gathering further momentum.

Data indicated that the Euro-zone's flash Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly climbed to a level of 60.0 in November, defying market expectations for a fall to a level of 58.2. The PMI had registered a level of 58.5 in the prior month. Further, the region's preliminary Markit services PMI advanced more-than-anticipated to a level of 56.2 in November, notching a six-month high level. The PMI had registered a reading of 55.0 in the prior month, while markets were expecting for a rise to a level of 55.2.

Separately, Germany's manufacturing sector activity surprisingly accelerated to a seven-year high level of 62.5 in November, compared to a level of 60.6 in the prior month. Market participants had envisaged the manufacturing PMI to drop to a level of 60.4. Moreover, growth in the nation's services sector advanced to a level of 54.9 in November, undershooting market expectations of an increase to a level of 55.0. In the prior month, the PMI had recorded a level of 54.7.

Other data indicated that Germany's seasonally adjusted final gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.8% on a quarterly basis in the third quarter of 2017, confirming the preliminary print and compared to a rise of 0.6% in the previous quarter.

Meanwhile, minutes of the European Central Bank's (ECB) October policy meeting indicated a broad agreement among officials on extending the central bank's quantitative easing (QE) programme. Nevertheless, minutes highlighted that policymakers were divided over whether to announce an end-date to QE as some concerns were expressed that the open-ended nature might generate expectations of further extensions. However, with inflation dynamics remaining subdued, board members agreed that an ample degree of monetary stimulus was still needed to secure a sustained return of inflation towards the central bank's target.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.1847, with the EUR trading marginally lower against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.1825, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1804. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1862, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1878.

Moving ahead, market participants would closely monitor Germany's Ifo expectations and business climate indices for November, slated to release in a few hours. Moreover, in the US, the flash Markit manufacturing and services PMIs for November, set to release later in the day, will pique significant amount of investor attention.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP declined 0.13% against the USD and closed at 1.3309, after UK's total business investments sharply slowed in the three months to September.

Preliminary data indicated that total business investment rose less-than-expected by 0.2% QoQ in the third quarter of 2017, while markets had expected for a gain of 0.3%. Total business investment had recorded a rise of 0.5% in the previous quarter.

Meanwhile, second estimate of Britain's gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.4% in the third quarter of 2017, in line with the flash estimates and compared to a rise of 0.3% in the prior quarter.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.3293, with the GBP trading 0.12% lower against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3273, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3253. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3325, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3357.

Going ahead, UK's BBA mortgage approvals data for October, due to release in a few hours, will be on investors' radar.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD slightly rose against the JPY and closed at 111.21.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 111.46, with the USD trading 0.22% higher against the JPY from yesterday's close.

Overnight data indicated that Japan's preliminary Nikkei manufacturing PMI jumped to a level of 53.8 in November, expanding at its fastest pace in more than three years, underscoring optimism over the state of the nation's manufacturing sector.

Earlier in the session, data showed that the nation's final leading economic index fell to a level of 106.4 in September, higher than a drop to a level of 106.6 indicated in the preliminary figures. The index had recorded a reading of 107.2 in the previous month. Also, the nation's final coincident index eased less than initially estimated to a level of 116.2 in September, compared to a flash print indicating a fall to a level of 115.8. The index had registered a level of 117.7 in the previous month.

The pair is expected to find support at 111.22, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 110.98. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 111.59, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 111.72.

Looking forward, investors would focus on Japan's jobless rate, the national consumer price index and industrial production data, all scheduled for release in the next week.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD slightly declined against the CHF and closed at 0.9816.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.9821, with the USD trading marginally higher against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9801, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9782. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9834, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9848.

Ahead in the day, traders would eye Switzerland’s 3Q industrial production data.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.09% against the CAD and closed at 1.2713.

The Canadian Dollar declined against the USD, on the back of disappointing Canadian retail sales data.

Macroeconomic data revealed that retail sales in Canada rebounded 0.1% on a monthly basis in September, falling short of market expectations for a rise of 1.0%, suggesting that consumers are paring back spending in the second half of this year. Retail sales had registered a revised drop of 0.1% in the prior month.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2729, with the USD trading 0.13% higher against the CAD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2691, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2653. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2749, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2769.

Moving ahead, a speech by the Bank of Canada's (BoC) Governor, Stephen Poloz, due next week, will keep investors on their toes.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1822; (P) 1.1839 (R1) 1.1865; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral with focus on 1.1860 resistance. Break there will confirm resumption of rise from 1.1553. As noted before, corrective fall from 1.2091 has completed at 1.1553 already, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.0569 to 1.2091 at 1.1510. Above 1.1860 will extend the rally to retest 1.2091 high. In any case, near term outlook will remain cautiously bullish as long as 1.1677 support holds.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is seen as a corrective move for the moment. Therefore, in case of another rally, we'd be cautious on 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 to limit upside and bring reversal. Meanwhile, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 1.1373) will suggest that such medium term rebound is completed and could then bring retest of 1.0339 low.

Markets are engaging in quiet holiday trading today while Dollar is paring some losses. But for the week, the greenback is still set to end as the worst performing one. Trading will likely stay subdued today as traders are already having their eyes on next week. In particular, the Senate will return from Thanksgiving recess and would floor the tax bill. Markets will then have a clearer idea on what the final version of Senate tax bill then. And assessment could then be done on the final reconciled version between House and Senate.

Economists believe tax plan would boost debt, uncertain on economy

For now, according to a poll by University of Chicago's Booth School of Business, economists are in consensus that the tax plan will boost US debt but unsure on it's help on the economy. 38 economists from schools like Yale and MIT were surveyed.

The first question was whether enacting "a tax bill similar to those currently moving through the House and Senate" would lead to a "substantially higher" rate of economic growth a decade from now than it would otherwise. 36% said they were uncertain, 33% disagreed and 19% strongly disagreed.

The second question was whether a tax bill like those in the House and Senate right now would leave the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio "substantially higher" in a decade than otherwise. 43% agreed and 45% strongly agreed. None disagreed.

Japan PMI manufacturing posted strongest improvement since 2014

Japan PMI manufacturing rose to 53.8 in November, up from 52.8 and beat expectation of 52.6. That's the strongest improvements for 44 months since March 2014. Markit economists Joe Hayes noted that "new orders increased strongly, underpinned by business from abroad amid recent yen weakness. New export orders expanded at the fastest pace in almost four years." However, he also warned that " cheaper yen and higher material prices have intensified cost pressures, as input price inflation increased to a 35-month high in November."

New Zealand trade deficit narrowed despite record imports

New Zealand trade deficit narrowed to NZD -871m in October, larger than expectation of NZD -750m. Imports surged to a record high at USD 5.4b, but that was offset by rise in exports to NZD 4.56b. Jump in imports include intermediate goods, used as ingredients or inputs into the production of other goods and services. Meanwhile dairy and lamb shipments were the key drivers of export growth.

Looking ahead

German IFO business climate will be the main feature in a quiet day. US will release manufacturing and services PMIs.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1822; (P) 1.1839 (R1) 1.1865; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral with focus on 1.1860 resistance. Break there will confirm resumption of rise from 1.1553. As noted before, corrective fall from 1.2091 has completed at 1.1553 already, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.0569 to 1.2091 at 1.1510. Above 1.1860 will extend the rally to retest 1.2091 high. In any case, near term outlook will remain cautiously bullish as long as 1.1677 support holds.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is seen as a corrective move for the moment. Therefore, in case of another rally, we'd be cautious on 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 to limit upside and bring reversal. Meanwhile, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 1.1373) will suggest that such medium term rebound is completed and could then bring retest of 1.0339 low.

Economic Indicators Update