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EURJPY has been edging higher since mid-June after bouncing from a low of 122.38. The pair hit a high of 128.95 yesterday, recording its highest level since February 2016.

The RSI indicator's move lower is indicative of fading upside momentum in the market, although it still remains above 50 in bullish territory and currently maintains a steep positive slope.

The market is entering a consolidation phase following the strong uptrend that stopped short of a key resistance and psychological level at 130.00.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, prices are finding support near the 20-period moving average around 128.33. This level has been an area of congestion since the end of June and EURJPY has been pivoting around it since then, now making it an important support level. Further support comes into view at 127.43 (June 30 low) and then 126.45 (June 28 low). Any deeper declines from here would start to weaken the short-term bullish market structure.

For now, there are no signals of a shift in the bullish bias. This view is also asserted by the positively aligned moving averages. The short-term 20-period MA is above the longer-term 50-period MA. Support at 128.33 seems to be holding firm. A bounce higher would see a re-test of the high at 128.95 with scope to target the key 130.00 psychological level.

EURJPY is expected to consolidate in the near term while maintaining a bullish short-term market structure. A move below 125.65, which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the rise from 122.38 to 128.95 would change the trend

The Aussie dollar is consolidating after strong fall in past two days which dipped to 0.7590 (contained by rising 20SMA) but failed to close below pivotal 0.7600 support. Upside attempts were so far limited and stay below falling hourly cloud, keeping the downside at risk, as Tuesday's long bearish candle continues to weigh.

Sustained break below 0.7600/0.7590 pivots 9Fibo 61.8% of 0.7535/0.7712 upleg/20SMA) is needed to trigger fresh extension of bear-leg from 0.7712 peak towards 0.7552 (100SMA) and to expose key near-term support at 0.7535 (22/23 June higher base).

Conversely, break above hourly cloud (currently spanned between 0.7636/43) would ease downside pressure and allow for stronger correction of 0.7712/0.7590 fall.

Res: 0.7624, 0.7636, 0.7665, 0.7694
Sup: 0.7590, 0.7577, 0.7552, 0.7535

FOMC minutes will be scrutinized for clues on balance unwinding

It has been a relatively light week in terms of economic data so far and investors are desperately looking for drivers. After falling as much as 2%, the dollar index got some colours back this week amid building expectations for monetary tightening from the Federal Reserve. The FOMC minutes are due for release later this afternoon (GMT 6pm) and will be the centre of the attention as investors are eager for more information about the Fed balance sheet unwinding program.

We anticipate the minutes won't provide further clarity, especially regarding the latter subject, as a first draft of the plan has already been released in mid-June, together with the statement and projections. Given the recent weakness in inflation and lacklustre households' consumption data, it is more likely that the minutes highlight the concerns of FOMC members.

On the other hand, Janet Yellen has expressed concerns about the negative effect of ultra-loose monetary policy, especially on the stock market. Indeed, valuations on the stock market seem completely out of touch and this raises the question of the reaction of investors when the Fed's unwinding actually kicks in. All in all, we believe the minutes won't fuel a dollar rally today.

Gold price remains weak on North Korean tension

The Gold price is on its way down and has reached its weakest level since the 10th of May. Selling pressures seem none-the-less to fade around $1220. The North Korean missile launched into Japanese waters yesterday barely boosted the precious metal for the time being. But it does not need much in our view for geopolitical issues to raise and drive higher the gold price.

Financial markets are still moving towards risk-on mode and are then moving away from the Gold safe haven. Signals sent by central banks are positive for markets. The Fed is normalising its monetary policy, the ECB may increase rates if the Eurozone recovery accelerates and last but not least, the European uncertainties are on the slide right now with only the German federal elections in September, the results of which should not be surprising.

However, we consider that it would need only a glitch to see investors back to Gold. Brexit negotiations promise to be tough, not every EU members have the same trade interest with the UK, and this will create divergence, plus markets are too optimistic about the US recovery while geopolitical risks (Middle East, North Korea) may rise at any moment.

The pair is probing above strong 113.50 resistance zone on Wednesday after strong rally on Monday and consolidation on Tuesday were capped at 113.47/45.

Tuesday's long-tailed candle signaled strong downside rejection (112.73) while Wednesday's attempts lower were contained at 112.82, with subsequent rally signaling that bulls are firmly in play.

We need to see firm break above 113.50 barrier to signal bullish continuation and expose barriers at 114.00 (round-figure) and key 114.36 (10/11 May tops).

Caution on repeated failure at 113.50 as slow stochastic is strongly overbought and daily RSI remains in sideways mode under overbought area border.

Alternative scenario requires break below 112.82/73 (Wed/Tue lows) for initial bearish signal, while extension below rising 10SMA (currently at 112.38) would further weaken near-term structure and signal reversal.

Res: 113.58, 113.95, 114.36, 114.65
Sup: 113.05, 112.73, 112.64, 112.38

Cable remains in red for the third day and probing below strong support at 1.2911 (daily cloud top) on extension of reversal from 1.3029 peak. Bearish near-term studies favor further weakness, with firm break below cloud top to open a cluster of supports below, starting with converged 10/55SMA's/Fibo 38.2% of 1.2588/1.3029 at 1.2861, 30 SMA at 1.2831 and pivotal 1.2800 support zone (daily Kijun-sen/20SMA/50% retracement). Falling and widening hourly cloud (spanned between 1.2956/75) is maintaining near-term pressure and expected to cap corrective attempts.

Res: 1.2947, 1.2956, 1.2975, 1.3000
Sup: 1.2861, 1.2852, 1.2831, 1.2809

The Euro continues to trade within narrow range on Wednesday, holding above pivotal support at 1.1320 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.1118/1.1445 reinforced by rising 10SMA), while the upside is capped by descending hourly cloud (1.1368) which weighs on near-term action.

Daily Ichimoku studies are in firm bullish setup while slow stochastic is heading lower and shows room for further extension of pullback from 1.1445 peak.

Corrective action should be ideally contained above 1.1320 support to keep bulls intact, however, violation of 1.1320 pivot would trigger extension towards next key supports at 1.1250/43 (rising 20SMA/Fibo 61.8% of 1.1118/1.1445).

Conversely, break above the upper pivot at 1.1400 would signal and end of corrective phase.

Another scenario of extended sideways mode until Friday, when US jobs data would generate stronger signal, is also in play.

Res: 1.1376, 1.1400, 1.1426, 1.1445
Sup: 1.1336, 1.1320, 1.1300, 1.1243

GOLD Heading towards support at 1214.

Gold's is trading lower. The commodity has broken hourly support located at 1236 (26/06/2017 low). Stronger support is given at 1214 (09/05/2017 low). Hourly resistance can be found at 1258 (23/06/2017 high). Expected to show further monitoring of support at 1214.

In the long-term, the technical structure suggests that there is a growing upside momentum. A break of 1392 (17/03/2014) is necessary ton confirm it, A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low).

SILVER Breaking support at 16.06.

Silver's bullish bounce quickly faded. Strong support given at 16.06 (09/05/2017 low) has been broken. Key resistance is given at a distance at 17.75 (06/06/2017 high). The road seems wide open for further decline.

In the long-term, the death cross indicates that further downsides are very likely. Resistance is located at 25.11 (28/08/2013 high). Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009).

CRUDE OIL Pushing higher.

Crude oil's momentum seems strong again. Support is given at 42.05 (21/06/2017 low). Expected to show renewed weakness.

In the long-term, crude oil has recovered after its sharp decline last year. However, we consider that further weakness are very likely. Strong support lies at 35.24 (05/04/2016) while resistance can now be found at 55.24 (03/01/2017 high).

EUR/JPY Fading momentum.

EUR/JPY is now trading around resistance given at 128.83 (30/06/2017). Hourly support can be found at 127.10 (30/06/2017). Next support is given at 122.56 (18/05/2017 low). Further upside is favored.

In the longer term, the technical structure validates a medium-term succession of lower highs and lower lows. As a result, the resistance at 149.78 (08/12/2014 high) has likely marked the end of the rise that started in July 2012. Strong support at 94.12 (24/07/2012 low) looks nonetheless far away.

EUR/GBP Continued slight weakness.

EUR/GBP has broken downtrend resistance triggering a move lower. Hourly support is given at 0.8719 (16/06/2017 low). Expected to show continued weakness.

In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from recent lows in 2015. The technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading above from its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 psychological level.

EUR/CHF Important selling pressure around at 1.0960.

EUR/CHF's short-term bullish pressures are definitely on after clear break of downtrend channel. Hourly support is located at a distance at 1.0792 (03/05/2017 low). Hourly resistance is given at 1.0987 (12/05/2017 high). Expected to inch higher.

In the longer term, the technical structure is mixed. Resistance can be found at 1.1200 (04/02/2015 high). Yet,the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).

USD/CHF Buying pressures are fading.

USD/CHF is pushing higher but the technical structure suggests further weakness. Hourly resistance can be found at 0.9771 (09/06/2017 high). Strong resistance is given at 1.0107 (10/04/2017 high). Hourly support is given at 0.9553 (30/06/2017 low). Expected to show continued bearish pressures.

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

USD/CAD Wide-open for further downside moves.

USD/CAD is way into bearish mode. Support given at 1.2965 (30/06/2017 low) has been broken. Resistance is located at 1.3014 (02/15/2017). Expected to show continued downside pressures.

In the longer term, the pair lies in a bullish channel since a year. Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). Long-term support can be found at 1.2461 (16/03/2015 low).

AUD/USD Ready for another leg higher.

AUD/USD's technical structure is bullish since early May. The pair should further head towards resistance at 0.7712 (30/06/2017 high). However, a break of support at 0.7520 (09/06/2017 low) would indicate a trend reversal.

In the long-term, we are waiting for further signs that the current downtrend is ending. Key supports stand at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

EUR/USD Medium-term bullish.

EUR/USD is still in a consolidation phase after its recent rally above 1.1400. Hourly support can be found at 1.1292 (28/06/2017 low). Stronger support lies at 1.1076 (18/05/2017 low).

In the longer term, the momentum is clearly negative. We favour a continued bearish bias towards parity. Key resistance holds at 1.1714 (24/08/2015 high) while strong support lies at 1.0341 (03/01/2017 low).

GBP/USD Profit-taking.

GBP/USD is consolidating lower. The pair failed to monitor resistance given at 1.3046 (18/05/2017 high). The road is wide-open for further weakness.

The long-term technical pattern is even more negative since the Brexit vote has paved the way for further decline. Long-term support given at 1.0520 (01/03/85) represents a decent target. Long-term resistance is given at 1.5018 (24/06/2015) and would indicate a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment.

USD/JPY Riding within symmetrical triangle.

USD/JPY is riding within symmetrical triangle. Hourly resistance can be found at 113.47 (03/07/2017 high). Hourly support can be found at 111.73 (30/06/2017 low). Strong support is located at 108.13 (17/04/2017 low). Expected to show continued bullish pressures within symmetrical pressures.

We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 96.57 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) seems absolutely unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).