Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2430; (P) 1.2464; (R1) 1.2501; More...

GBP/USD is still staying in range of 1.2411/2705. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. As noted before, rise from 1.1986 is seen as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.1946. Hence, in case of another rise, we'd expect upside to be limited by 1.2774 resistance and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 1.2411 minor support will argue that rise from 1.1986 is completed and turn bias to the downside for 1.1946 low.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term bottoming yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9886; (P) 0.9924; (R1) 0.9944; More.....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF will remain neutral for the moment as the consolidation pattern from 0.9860 extends. While further recovery cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.0043 resistance and bring another decline. Current fall from 1.0342 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0327. Below 0.9860 will target 61.8% retracement of 0.9443 to 1.0342 at 0.9786 and below. On the upside, break of 1.0043 will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside.

In the bigger picture, rejection from 1.0327 resistance suggests that consolidation pattern from there is still in progress. Fall from 1.0342 is seen as the third leg and retest of 0.9443/9548 support zone could be seen. But we'd expect strong support from there to contain downside. At this point, we're still expecting the larger rally to resume later to 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359, after the consolidation completes.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.30; (P) 112.04; (R1) 112.46; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the downside as the decline from 118.65 extends. We're viewing this choppy fall as a correction. Hence, we'd expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 to contain downside and bring rebound. Above 113.44 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. Break of 115.36 resistance will argue that such correction is finished and turn bias to the upside for 118.65 high.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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RBA on hold with an upbeat view of inflation

Asia Mid-Session Market Update: RBA on hold with an upbeat view of inflation; RBNZ's forecasts rising CPI and lowest unemployment since 2008

US Session Highlights

(EU) ECB's Draghi: Economic situation improving but risks to outlook remain on the downside; reiterates underlying inflation pressures remain very subdued, Euro Zone recovery is firming up

(US) Fed Q4 senior loan officer survey: about a quarter of banks tightened credits standards for commercial real estate loans in Q4

(US) Fed's Harker (hawk, voter): March FOMC should be on the table for rate decision - Q&A with reporters

US markets on close: Dow -0.1%, S&P500 -0.2%, Nasdaq -0.1%

Best Sector in S&P500: Healthcare

Worst Sector in S&P500: Materials

Biggest gainers: HAS +14.1%, CBT +10.7%, NEM +3.2%, FAST +2.8%, MNK +2.7%

Biggest losers: LH -5.7%, NWL -5.7%, XYL -4.2%, FTI -4.1%, MRO -4.1%

At the close: VIX 11.4 (+0.4pts); Treasuries: 2-yr 1.15% (-5bps), 10-yr 2.41% (-8bps), 30-yr 3.05% (-7bps)

US movers afterhours

JLL: Reports Q4 $3.95 v $3.92e, R$2.16B v $2.04Be; Guides initial FY17 fee rev +8-11% y/y; Adj EBITDA margin 10-12%; +7.8% afterhours

ALSN: Reports Q4 $0.36 v $0.27e, R$469M v $430Me; Guides Q1 Rev net sales ~flat y/y; +5.1% afterhours

FN: Reports Q2 $0.91 v $0.79e, R$351M v $336Me; Announces initiation of CEO succession plan; +3.9% afterhours

GPS: Reports Jan SSS +1.0% v +2.1%e; Raises FY16 adj eps $2.01-2.02 v $1.96e ; +2.3% afterhours

FMC: Reports Q4 $0.88 v $0.89e, R$866M v $926Me; -4.4% afterhours

YRCW: Reports Q4 -$0.23 v -$0.09e, R$1.15B v $1.14Be- Tonnage per day up (freight), flat (regional); Adj EBITDA $57.7M v $66.0M y/y; -4.8% afterhours

FXCM: To withdraw its CFTC registration to settle allegations that it concealed from clients that firm had relationship with its “ most important ” market maker; to pay $7.0M fine; -19.7% afterhours

Politics

(US) 9th Circuit Court of Appeals to hear challenge to Trump's ban tomorrow evening - US press

(UK) UK PM May wins commons vote on amendment to Brexit bill - financial press

Asia Key economic data:

(AU) RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA (RBA) LEAVES CASH RATE TARGET UNCHANGED AT 1.50%; AS EXPECTED

(AU) AUSTRALIA JAN AIG PERFORMANCE OF CONSTRUCTION INDEX: 47.7 V 47.0 PRIOR (4th straight month of contraction, 4-month high)

(NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q1 INFLATION EXPECTATION SURVEY: 2-YEAR INFLATION EXPECTATION 1.92% V 1.68% PRIOR

(SL) Sri Lanka Central Bank (CBSL) leaves key rates unchanged (as expected); 6th straight pause in current itghtening cycle

(PH) PHILIPPINES JAN CPI M/M: 0.3% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 2.7% V 2.8%E; CORE CPI Y/Y: 2.5% V 2.8%E

(UK) JAN BRC LFL SALES VALUE Y/Y: -0.6% V +0.9%E (first decline in 5 months)

Asia Session Notable Observations, Speakers and Press

Asia indices little changed, tracking mixed sentiment in US session, where investor flows sought the safety of US treasuries; After market close, Fed's Harker (voter) said March rate hike possibility is still on the table, reiterating commitment to raise rates 3 times this year.

US Circuit Court of Appeals to hear arguments for reversing Washington State federal judge who halted Pres Trump's immigration executive order.

AUD/USD volatile with initial decline after S&P said the first step in Australia sovereign downgrade would only affect AAA states, as investors interpreted comments as a warning shot; Later in the day, RBA left rates unchanged but was more hawkish on inflation, forecasting headline CPI to pick up in 2017 above 2%. RBA also added more positive tones on the economy, stating consumption and non-mining investment are expected to pick up this year.

RBNZ's inflation/GDP/employment outlook over next 2 years saw improved conditions across the board. GDP seen at its highest level in 2.5 years, while unemployment the lowest since Q3 2008.

PBOC has once again skipped reverse repo operations after a 10bp increases in offer rates on Friday, claiming liquidity is ample.

China:

(CN) China economic downward pressures are large currently, will give priority to employment amid the downward pressure - press

(CN) China Jan new Yuan loans said to top the prior monthly record of CNY2.5T - press

(CN) China Securities Journal: PBoC's suspension of open market operations suggests current economic fundamentals do not support a tightening of monetary policy

(CN) China State Council plans to create more than 50M new jobs by 2020 while keeping the urban unemployment rate below 5%

(CN) PBoC urging China banks to curb lending - The Paper

Japan:

(JP) Japan Fin Min Aso and Foreign Min Kishida and Trade Min Seko said to travel with PM Abe to US for meetings - financial press

(JP) Japan Fin Min Aso: FX stability is important; Improving economic links with US in both countries' benefit

Australia/New Zealand:

(AU) S&P: First step in Australia sovereign downgrade would only affect AAA states - press

(AU) S&P/ASX200 falls below 5,600, 6-week low

(NZ) RBNZ Wheeler will not seek second term; Dep Gov Spencer to be acting Gov starting Sept 27th

(NZ) Fixed income markets have started to price in some chance of RBNZ rate hike this year, but consensus among New Zealand economists is that it is unlikely - NZ press

Asian Equity Indices/Futures (00:00ET)

Nikkei -0.1%, Hang Seng flat, Shanghai Composite -0.4%, ASX200 flat, Kospi -0.1%

Equity Futures: S&P500 flat; Nasdaq +0.1%; Dax flat; FTSE100 +0.1%

FX ranges/Commodities/Fixed Income (00:00ET)

EUR 1.0705-1.0750; JPY 111.60-111.95; AUD 0.7630-0.7680; NZD 0.7300-0.7375

Apr Gold +0.2% at $1,235/oz; Mar Crude Oil +0.3% at $53.16/brl; Mar Copper -0.5% at $2.64/lb

SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings rise 4.2 tonnes to 818.7 tonnes; 4th straight increase; Highest since Dec 30th

(CN) PBOC SETS YUAN MID POINT AT 6.8604 V 6.8606 PRIOR

(CN) PBOC skips reverse repo operations (3rd consecutive halt)

(JP) Japan MoF sells 10-yr 0.1% inflation linked bonds; bid-to-cover 2.61x v 2.85x prior

(KR) South Korea sells 30-yr Govt bonds; Avg yield 2.19%

Asia equities/Notables/movers by sector

Consumer discretionary: NEC.AU Nine Entertainment -1.5%, SWM.AU Seven West -2.3% (Deutsche Bank cuts rating); HUB.AU Hub24 +4.3% (Q2 result); 2914.JP Japan Tobacco -1.8% (FY16 result)

Financials: 993.HK Huarong International Financial +5.2% (profit alert); SCP.AU SCA Property +2.8% (H1 result); MQG.AU Macquarie Group -1.7% (Q3 trading statement); 8053.JP Sumitomo Corp +1.4% (writedown speculation); 8031.JP Mitsui & Co +0.6% (earnings speculation)

Industrials: 2333.HK Great Wall Motor -1.9% (FY16 result); 175.HK Geely Automobile -2.7% (Jan result); 1777.HK Fantasia Holdings +2.1% (Jan result); GNC.AU Graincorp +3.2% (Goldman Sachs raises rating); RWH.AU Royal Wolf Holdings -6.7% (H1 result); 7203.JP Toyota -2.2% (9-month result); 010140.KR Samsung Heavy Industries -3.8% (concerns on drill ship delivery)

Technology: 1063.HK Suncorp Technologies -1.8% (profit warning); 6146.JP Disco Corp +13.6% (Macquarie raises rating, 9-month result)

Materials: 1332.HK Qualipak International -10.6% (profit warning); RSG.AU Resolute Mining +5.5%, NST.AU Northern Star +3.3%, NCM.AU Newcrest +3.0%, EVN.AU Evolution +4.4% (gold rises); 5938.JP LIXIL Group +2.0% (9-month result); 5302.JP Nippon Carbon Co +7.8% (adjusts guidance)

Energy: 3303.HK Jutal Offshore Oil Services -1.5% (profit warning)

Utilities: TCL.AU Transurban +5.8% (H1 result)

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7631; (P) 0.7657; (R1) 0.7684; More...

At this point, further rise could still be seen in AUD/USD for 0.7777/7833 resistance zone. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, we'd expect strong resistance from this resistance zone to limit upside and bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 0.7510 minor support will indicate that rise from 0.7158 has completed already and turn bias back to the downside for this key near term support level.

In the bigger picture, we're still treading price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seek to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8205) and above.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3016; (P) 1.3076; (R1) 1.3145; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is staying in range of 1.2968/3168. We're holding on to the view that corrective rise from 1.2460 has completed at 1.3598 already, after hitting 50% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.3838. Therefore, deeper decline is expected as long as 1.3168 minor resistance holds. Break of 1.2968 should pave the way to retest 1.2460 low. However, on the upside, break of 1.3168 will mix up the near term outlook and turn focus back to 1.3387 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. The second leg could be completed at 1.3598 and fall from there is tentatively seen as the third leg. Break of 1.2460 will target 50% retracement of 0.9460 to 1.4689 at 1.2075 before completing the correction. In case of another rise, we'd look for reversal signal above 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.76; (P) 139.75; (R1) 140.30; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the downside for 136.44 support and below. Current decline from 144.77 is seen as the third leg of consolidation pattern from 148.42. Hence, we'd expect strong support from 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 141.96 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside. However, sustained trading below 135.39 will argue that whole rise from 122.36 is completed and will turn outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.36 medium term bottom are still seen as a corrective pattern. Main focus is on 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42. Rejection from there will turn the cross into medium term sideway pattern with a test on 122.36 low next. Though, sustained break of 150.42 will extend the rebound towards 61.8% retracement at 167.78.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 119.54; (P) 120.51; (R1) 121.08; More...

EUR/JPY's sharp decline and break of 120.54 indicates that fall from 124.08 has resumed. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 118.45 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 109.20 to 124.08 at 118.39). Nonetheless, such decline from 124.08 is still seen as a corrective move. Hence, we'd expect strong support from 118.39/45 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 120.54 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 123.30/124.08 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 109.20 medium term bottom are seen as part of a medium term corrective pattern from 149.76. There is prospect of another rise towards 126.09 key resistance level before completion. But even in that case, we'd expect strong resistance between 126.09 and 141.04 to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Nonetheless, decisive break of 118.45 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 109.20 to 124.08 at 118.39) will argue that rise from 109.20 is completed and turn outlook bearish for 61.8% retracement at 114.88 and below.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0632; (P) 1.0666; (R1) 1.0685; More...

EUR/CHF drops notably but stays above 1.0635 temporary low. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Overall, near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.0749 resistance holds and deeper decline is expected. Decisive break of 1.0620 key support level will confirm resumption of whole fall from 1.1198. In that case, next downside target will be 1.0485 fibonacci level. Break of 1.0749 will raise the chance of medium term reversal and turn focus back to 1.0897 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.1198 is seen as a corrective move. Such correction is still in progress. Sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653 will target 50% retracement at 1.0485. On the upside, break of 1.0897 resistance is needed to confirm completion of such fall. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8595; (P) 0.8618; (R1) 0.8645; More...

EUR/GBP is staying in consolidation pattern from 0.8469 and intraday bias remains neutral. In case of another rise, we'd expect upside to be limited by 50% retracement of 0.8851 to 0.8469 at 0.8660 to bring fall resumption. As noted before, we're tentatively viewing fall from 0.8851 as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 0.9304. Break of 0.8469 will target 0.8303 low. However, firm break of 0.8660 will indicate that rise from 0.8303 is still in progress and would turn bias to the upside for 0.8851 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. Deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside. Overall, the corrective pattern would take some time to complete before long term up trend resumes at a later stage. Break of 0.9304 will pave the way to 0.9799 (2008 high).

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