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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4076; (P) 1.4112; (R1) 1.4171; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment as it's staying in range below 1.4183. Overall, with 1.3872 intact, we're still favoring the case of trend reversal after defending key support level at 1.3671. This is supported by bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. On the upside, above 1.4183 will turn bias to the upside for 1.4289 resistance next. Break will affirm our view and target next key resistance level at 1.4721. However, break of 1.3872 minor support will invalidate our view and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.3624 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. We'd expect strong support from 1.3671 key level to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.4721 resistance will indicate completion of such correction and turn outlook bullish for retesting 1.6587 high. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our bullish view and would turn focus back to 1.1602 long term bottom.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0696; (P) 1.0709; (R1) 1.0723; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral as range trading continues. On the upside, break of 1.0823 resistance will re-affirm the case of trend reversal. And intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.0897 resistance for confirmation. However, break of 1.0683 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.0620 key support level again.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.1198 is seen as a corrective move. Decisive break of 1.0897 resistance should confirm that it's completed. And in that case, larger up trend is resuming for another high above 1.1198. Meanwhile, sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653 will target 50% retracement at 1.0485.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7607; (P) 0.7642; (R1) 0.7662; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside for the moment. Fall from 0.7748 should target 0.7490 first. Break there will indicate completion of whole rise from 0.7158 and turn near term outlook bearish. On the upside, though, above 0.7683 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7748 and above. At this point, we'd continue to expect strong resistance from long term retracement level at 0.7849 to limit upside.

In the bigger picture, we're still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seek to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8169) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3325; (P) 1.3340; (R1) 1.3366; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 1.3408 will affirm the case that pull back from 1.3534 has completed. And, intraday bias will be back on the upside for retesting 1.3534. Break there will target 1.3598 high. On the downside, in case of another fall, we'd expect strong support from 1.3211 cluster level (61.8% retracement of 1.3008 to 1.3534 at 1.3209) to contain downside and bring rebound. Overall, we're still expecting the medium term rise from 1.2460 to resume later.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. The second leg is likely still in progress and could target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838. We'd look for reversal signal there to start the third leg. Break of 1.2968 wold at least bring at retest of 1.2460 low. However, sustained trading above 1.3838 would pave the way to retest 1.4689 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0766; (P) 1.0785 (R1) 1.0804; More.....

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1298 key resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still expected to resume later. Break of 1.0339 low will send EUR/USD through parity to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2478; (P) 1.2505; (R1) 1.2547; More...

GBP/USD continues to lose upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But at this point, further rise is still expected with 1.2340 minor resistance holds. Above 1.2569 will target 1.2705/74 resistance zone. Price actions from 1.1946 are seen as a consolidation pattern. Hence, we'd expect strong resistance from 1.2705/2774 to limit upside and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 1.2340 support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2108 support. Though, sustained break of 1.2774 will extend the rise towards 1.3444 key resistance level.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term bottoming yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9915; (P) 0.9928; (R1) 0.9946; More.....

A temporary low is in place at 0.9881 in USD/CHF, ahead of 0.9860 support. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Deeper decline is in favor as long as 1.0002 minor resistance holds. Break of 0.9860 will extend the whole fall from 1.0342 towards 100% projection of 1.0342 to 0.9860 from 1.0169 at 0.9687. However, break of 1.0002 will argue that fall from 1.0169 is finished and will turn bias back to the upside for this resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/CHF is staying in medium term sideway pattern between 0.9443/1.0342. In any case, decisive break of 1.0342 resistance is needed to confirm underlying strength. Otherwise, we'll stay neutral in the pair first. In case of another fall, we'd expect strong support from 0.9443/9548 support zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.50; (P) 111.03; (R1) 111.45; More...

A temporary low is in place at USD/JPY with 4 hour MACD staying above signal line. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. At this point, we're still favoring the case for strong support around 111.12/13 to bring rebound. This level represents 61.8% projection of 118.65 to 111.58 from 115.49 at 111.12 and 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13. Break of 112.86 resistance will indicates completion of the correction from 118.65. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 115.49 resistance and above. However, sustained trading below 111.12/13 will pave the way to 100% projection at 108.42 next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Nonetheless, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 111.12) will extend the consolidation from 125.85 with another fall through 98.97 before completion.

The financial markets are holding their breaths as US House delayed the vote of President Donald Trump's health care plan. DJIA recovered to 20757.89 overnight but closed down -0.02% at 20656.68. S&P 500 also recovered to 2358.92 but closed down -0.11% at 234596. 10 year yield recovered by closing up 0.022 at 2.418 but stayed below 55 day EMA at 2.434. Gold lost momentum after failing to stay above 1250 an is trading in tight range around 1245. WTI crude oil is also bounded in right range between 47/48.5. Dollar index recovers after dipping to 99.54 but is yet to find follow through buying to get pass 100 at the time of writing.

Vote on healthcare act postponed to Friday

A vote on Trump's American Health Care Act was originally scheduled in House yesterday. House Republicans had a closed-door meeting but it's reported that after frantic negotiations, there are still some conservatives who are not convinced. For the conservatives, the bill was still too costly and did not do enough to roll back so called Obamacare. Meanwhile, some moderates worried that the loss of benefits to some would be too much for their constituents to bear.

The vote is now scheduled for Friday after Trump offered ultimatum to House Republicans. Trumps' budget director Mick Mulvaney warned that if the vote fails, the administration will just move on to other priorities like tax reform. And in that case, Obamacare will stay. It should be noted again that the health care bill is seen as a litmus test for Trump's ability to push through his reforms. A failure will heighten the concern that he would not be able to fulfill his election promises on tax cut and infrastructure spending. Stocks and yields would likely extend this week's fall then.

Fed Williams: Three or more hike this year

San Francisco Fed President John Williams said that "three or maybe even more increases this year, makes sense to me, but it would depend on the data." He sounded upbeat regarding the economy and said that momentum "has been very positive". And "risks are pretty balanced overall, which is a good place to be." And, "maybe news of significant fiscal stimulus" would give the Fed the reasons for a faster rate path.

Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, on the other hand, wanted a "gradual and patient" approach in rate hike. He also noted that trimming the balance sheet is an appropriate further step for the Fed. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari urged Fed to reduce the balance sheet as soon as possible. Fed Chair Janet Yellen also spoke yesterday but she didn't touch on monetary policy.

Elsewhere...

New Zealand trade deficit narrowed to NZD -18m in February but missed expectation of NZD 160m surplus. Japan PMI manufacturing dropped to 52.6 in February. Eurozone PMIs will be the main feature in European session. UK will release BBA mortgage approvals. In US session, focus will be on US durable goods orders and Canada CPI.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.50; (P) 111.03; (R1) 111.45; More...

A temporary low is in place at USD/JPY with 4 hour MACD staying above signal line. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. At this point, we're still favoring the case for strong support around 111.12/13 to bring rebound. This level represents 61.8% projection of 118.65 to 111.58 from 115.49 at 111.12 and 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13. Break of 112.86 resistance will indicates completion of the correction from 118.65. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 115.49 resistance and above. However, sustained trading below 111.12/13 will pave the way to 100% projection at 108.42 next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Nonetheless, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 111.12) will extend the consolidation from 125.85 with another fall through 98.97 before completion.

Economic Indicators Update

Following on from our oil shorts post, I thought a quiet Friday Asian session would be the perfect time to do a little update.

Oil Hourly:

Already we can see these types of short term pullbacks holding perfectly.

Are shorts in play already?

With the higher time frame level still in play, let's take a look at what the levels are doing now:

Oil Hourly:

As you can see, not only the higher time frame level that was the basis of the previous blog has held, but both of these short term levels are also still in play.