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USDJPY regained traction in early trading on Monday but remains with the recent range and looks for firmer direction signal.

Near term bias is expected to remain bullish while the price action stays above rising daily Tenkan-sen (149.16) which contained today’s dip, but the upside attempts were so far limited.

Probes through psychological 150 barrier failed to register weekly close above this level, lacking fresh bullish signal for extension towards more significant barriers at 150.69/76 (daily cloud top / 100DMA / 50% retracement of 161.95/139.57 downtrend) violation of which to signal continuation of an uptrend from139.57 (2024 low, posted on Sep 16).

Daily studies are mixed as positive signals from strong bullish momentum and diverging daily Tenkan / Kijun-sen after creating bull-cross) were partially offset by formation of 100/200DMA death cross).

The dollar remains supported by wide gap between Fed/BoJ monetary policies and growing market expectations of election victory of Donald Trump, whose pro-business policy is expected to boost the economy and further support dollar.

On the other hand, more signals that Fed may remain dovish on monetary policy would increase pressure on the US currency.

Initial negative signals to be expected on potential loss of 149.16/00 pivots, which would risk deeper pullback, and expose supports at 148.12 and 147.28 (broken Fibo 38.2% / rising 20DMA).

Res: 150.00; 150.76; 151.00; 151.40.
Sup: 149.16; 149.00; 148.86; 148.12.

AUD/USD is attempting a recovery wave from 0.6660. NZD/USD could gain bullish momentum if there is a clear move above the 0.6090 resistance.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar found support near 0.6660 and is now recovering against the US Dollar.
• There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 0.6690 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
• NZD/USD is attempting a recovery wave above the 0.6050 resistance.
• There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 0.6075 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair dipped from the 0.6760 resistance zone. The Aussie Dollar declined below 0.6700, but the bulls were active near 0.6660 against the US Dollar.

A low was formed near 0.6658 and the pair is now correcting losses. There was a move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6759 swing high to the 0.6658 low. There was also a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 0.6690.

The pair is now above 0.6700 and the 50-hour simple moving average. On the upside, immediate resistance is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6759 swing high to the 0.6658 low at 0.6720.

The first major resistance is near a rising channel at 0.6735. A clear upside break above 0.6735 could send the pair toward 0.6760. The next major resistance on the AUD/USD chart is near 0.6780, above which the price could rise toward 0.6800. Any more gains might send the pair toward 0.6820.

On the downside, initial support is near 0.6705 or the 50-hour simple moving average. The next support could be the 0.6680 zone. Any more losses might send the pair toward the 0.6660 support.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of NZD/USD on FXOpen, the pair also followed a similar pattern and declined from the 0.6120 zone. The New Zealand Dollar gained bearish momentum and traded below 0.6100 against the US Dollar.

The pair even dropped below the 50-hour simple moving average and tested 0.6080. A low was formed near 0.6039 and the pair is now attempting a fresh increase. It is back above the 0.6050 level and the 50-hour simple moving average.

Besides, there was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 0.6075. On the upside, the pair is facing resistance near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6119 swing high to the 0.6039 low.

The next major resistance is near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6119 swing high to the 0.6039 low at 0.6100. If there is a move above 0.6100, the pair could rise toward the 0.6120 resistance.

Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 0.6150 resistance zone. On the downside, immediate support on the NZD/USD chart is near 0.6045.

The next major support is near the 0.6000 zone. If there is a downside break below 0.6000, the pair could extend the decline toward the 0.5965 level. The next key support is near 0.5940.

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ECB Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus commented today that the disinflationary trend is progressing steadily, though he acknowledged that services inflation remains elevated.

Simkus expects monetary policy to gradually become less restrictive, with the central bank lowering interest rates toward a "natural" level, estimated to be between 2-3%.

However, he emphasized that if the disinflation process becomes deeply "entrenched", rates could potentially fall below the natural level.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 194.66; (P) 195.35; (R1) 195.95; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral as sideway trading continues. On the upside, break of 195.95 will resume whole rise from 180.00 to 61.8% retracement of 208.09 to 180.00 at 197.35 next. Sustained break there will target 208.09 high. On the downside, below 192.87 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 189.54 support. Further break there will target 183.70 support.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to whole rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 and 208.09. However, decisive break of 175.94 will argue that deeper correction is underway.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 162.18; (P) 162.51; (R1) 162.84; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral as range trading continues. On the upside, firm break of 163.86 resistance will resume the rebound from 154.40 to 61.8% retracement of 175.41 to 154.40 at 167.38. On the downside, break of 161.00 minor support will turn bias back to the downside. Further break of 158.09 will target 154.40/155.14 support zone.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should have been set between 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 and 175.41 high. However, decisive break of 152.11 would argue that deeper correction is underway.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8302; (P) 0.8319; (R1) 0.8343; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the downside for the moment. Current down trend is in progress for 0.8201 key support next. Strong support could be seen from there to bring rebound. But for now, break of 0.8433 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) is in progress. Next target is 0.8201 (2022 low), but strong support should be seen there to bring rebound. However, outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.8624 resistance holds even in case of strong rebound. Decisive break of 0.8201 will indicate long term bearish reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6156; (P) 1.6185; (R1) 1.6233; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains mildly on the downside, as fall from 1.6351 would extend to retest 1.6002 low. On the upside, however, break of 1.6351 will resume the rebound from 1.6002 to 38.2% of 1.7180 to 1.6002 at 1.6452.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5996 cluster support holds (38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.7062 (2023 high) at 1.6000), up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage. However, decisive break of 1.5996 will argue that the medium term trend has reversed and turn outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9365; (P) 0.9386; (R1) 0.9417; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral as sideway trading continues in converging range. On the downside, break of 0.9332 will resume the fall from 0.9579 towards 0.9209 low. On the upside, break of 0.9506 will turn intraday bias to the upside for 0.9579 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.9928 is seen as part of the long term down trend. Repeated rejection by 55 D EMA (now at 0.9439) keeps outlook bearish for breaking through 0.9209 low at a later stage. Nevertheless, sustained trading above 55 D EMA will confirm medium term bottoming and bring stronger rebound back towards 0.9928 key resistance.

• Gold creates new bullish wave
• Technical oscillators endorse upside momentum

Gold prices skyrocketed to another all-time high of 2,732 earlier today, continuing the strong bounce off the 2,600 support level. The price successfully jumped above the ascending channel, which has been standing since the beginning of June, endorsing the bullish structure.

Technically, the RSI indicator recently jumped above the 70 level, and the stochastic oscillator is rising in the overbought region. Both confirm the positive momentum in the market.

If the commodity continues the aggressive buying interest, then it may meet the next round numbers, such as 2,800 and 2,900.

On the other hand, a decline beneath the previous highs of 2,688 could slip towards the 20-day simple moving average at 2,660 before resting near the 2,600 barricade. A drop lower could open the way for the 50-day SMA at 2,577 ahead of the long-term uptrend line near 2,565.

In summary, gold prices are exhibiting significant increases, marking the fifth consecutive positive day. A decisive movement below the ascending trend line may change the outlook to neutral. 

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0838; (P) 1.0854; (R1) 1.0884; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and more consolidations would be seen above 1.0810 temporary low. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.0954 resistance holds. Below 1.0810 will resume the fall from 1.1213 to 61.8% retracement of 1.0447 to 1.1213 at 1.0740. Firm break there will target 1.0601 support next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1274 (2023 high) are seen as a consolidation pattern to up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low), with fall from 1.1213 as the third leg. Downside should be contained by 50% retracement of 0.9534 (2022 low) to 1.1274 at 1.0404, to bring up trend resumption at a later stage.