Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2243; (P) 1.2297; (R1) 1.2375; More...

GBP/USD's consolidation from 1.2200 is still in progress and extending. Intraday bias remains neutral first. In case of stronger rise, upside should be limited by 1.2509 resistance and bring fall resumption. Corrective rise from 1.1946 has completed at 1.2774. Below 1.2200 will target a test on 1.1946 low. Decisive break there will confirm larger down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term bottoming yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0176; (P) 1.0233; (R1) 1.0266; More.....

USD/CHF's consolidation from 1.0342 is still in progress and intraday bias stays neutral first. Deeper fall cannot be ruled out. But we'd expect strong support from 1.0019 to contain downside and bring rally resumption. Firm break of 1.0342 will confirm up trend resumption. However, firm break of 1.0019 will indicate near term reversal and could bring deeper fall bring to 0.9443/9548 support zone.

In the bigger picture, the corrective fall from 1.0327 should have completed at 0.9443 already. Rise from 0.9443 could be resuming the long term rally from 2011 low at 0.7065. But decisive break of 1.0327 is needed to confirm. In that case, next medium term upside target will be 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359. Rejection from 1.0327 will extend the sideway pattern with another fall back to 0.9443/9548 support zone.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box

Dollar stays soft in early US session after mixed job data as the post FOMC minutes selloff might extend. Initial jobless claims dropped 28k to 235k in the week ended December 31, much lower than expectation of 260k. That's also just 2k above the 43 year low of 233k made back in November. In addition, initial claims stayed below 300k for 96 straight weeks, the longest since 1970. Continuing claims rose 16k to 2.11m in the week ended December 24. ADP report showed 153k growth in private sector jobs in December, missing expectation of 175k. Challenger report showed 42.4% yoy rise in planned layoffs in December. Also release in US session, Canada IPPI rose 0.3% mom in November. RMPI dropped -2.0% mom.

UK data continues to beat market expectations. PMI services rose to 56.2 in December, up from 55.2, above consensus of 54.7. That;s also the highest level in 17 months. Markit noted that "the UK economy continues to defy widely held expectations of a Brexit-driven slowdown." Meanwhile, the all-sector PMI, including services, manufacturing and construction survey findings, also rose to 17-month high at 56.4, up from 55.1. Markit noted this points to GDP growth of 0.5% in Q4, just slightly lower than Q3 reading of 0.6%. However, it's also cautioned that inflationary pressures are building through the supply chain and could drag down growth in 2017.

From Eurozone, PPI rose 0.3% mom, 0.1% yoy in November, better than expectation of 0.2% mom, -0.1% yoy. Retail PMI rose to 50.4 in December, up from 48.6. Elsewhere, Swiss CPI dropped -0.1% mom, 0.0% Yoy in December. China Caixin PMI services rose to 53.4 in December. Japan monetary base rose 23.1% yoy in December.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 116.79; (P) 117.48; (R1) 117.92; More...

USD/JPY is still bounded in the consolidation from 118.65 and intraday bias remains neutral. At this point, we'd continue to expect downside to be contained by 114.76 support and bring rally resumption finally. Above 118.65 will extend the whole rise from 98.97 to 125.85 key resistance next. However, sustained break of 114.76 will confirm short term topping and bring deeper pull back to 55 day EMA (now at 112.67) and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the corrective is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance.

Economic Indicators Update

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box

Daily Pivots: (S1) 116.79; (P) 117.48; (R1) 117.92; More...

USD/JPY is still bounded in the consolidation from 118.65 and intraday bias remains neutral. At this point, we'd continue to expect downside to be contained by 114.76 support and bring rally resumption finally. Above 118.65 will extend the whole rise from 98.97 to 125.85 key resistance next. However, sustained break of 114.76 will confirm short term topping and bring deeper pull back to 55 day EMA (now at 112.67) and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the corrective is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box

The single currency met resistance at 1.1201 early last year and eased throughout the rest of 2016, suggesting further consolidation below this level would be seen and test of 1.0622 support cannot be ruled out, however, reckon downside would be limited to 1.0450 and 1.0350-60 should hold, bring another rise later, above 1.0900 would bring test of 1.1001 resistance but only break of 1.1201 level is needed to signal the rise from 0.8426 low has resumed for retracement of early downtrend to 1.1350, then towards 1.1500 but reckon upside would be limited to 1.1700 and price should falter below 1.2000. Our latest preferred count that wave 5 has ended at 0.8426 and major correction has commenced from there, hence eventual gain towards previous 4th of a lesser degree at 1.2650 would be seen.

On the downside, whilst pullback to 1.0600 and 1.0500 cannot be ruled out, reckon downside would be limited to 1.0350-60 and support at 1.0235 should remain intact, bring another rebound later. In the event euro drops below said support at 1.0235, this would suggest first leg of correction from 0.8246 has ended as wave A, then wave B correction shall take place for weakness to 1.0000, however, downside should be limited to 0.9700 and reckon 0.9500 would hold from here, bring another rebound in late 2017.

The Australian dollar recovered initially in 2016 and then spent most of last year moving sideways, suggesting further consolidation above last year's low at 0.6827 would take place and recovery to 0.7520-25 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon resistance at 0.7778 should cap upside and bring another decline. Below 0.7000 would bring retest of 0.6827 but break of this last year's low is needed to signal the major fall from 1.1083 (wave (C) as well as larger degree wave B top) has resumed and extend weakness to 0.6500-10 (1.236 times projection of 1.1083-0.8660 measuring from 0.9505), then towards 0.6240-50, however, oversold condition should limit downside to 0.6000-08 (psychological support and 2008 low) and price should stay well above 0.5580-90 (1.618 times extension), risk from there is seen for a corrective rebound to take place later.

On the upside, expect recovery to be limited to 0.7520-25 and bring such a decline to aforesaid downside targets. A sustained breach above said resistance at 0.7778 would defer bearishness and bring another corrective rebound to 0.7900, then psychological resistance at 0.8000 but reckon resistance at 0.8163 would limit upside and 0.8350-60, price should falter well below previous support at 0.8660 (minor wave i trough), bring another decline in latter part of 2017.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8480; (P) 0.8509; (R1) 0.8538; More...

EUR/GBP recovered after dipping to 0.8449 and intraday bias is turned neutral again. Below 0.8449 will target 0.8303 and break will resume the whole fall from 0.9304. In that case, we'd look for bottoming again at around 0.8116. Meanwhile, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 0.9304 to 0.8303 at 0.8685 will revive the case of near term reversal. In that case, stronger rise should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.8922 and above.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. Deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet. But we'd expect strong support around 55 weeks EMA (now at 0.8230) to contain downside. Overall, the corrective pattern would take some time to complete before long term up trend resumes at a later stage. Break of 0.9304 will pave the way to 0.9799 (2008 high).

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4341; (P) 1.4381; (R1) 1.4438; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 1.4072 will extend the correction from 1.6587 towards next key support level 1.3671. Meanwhile, decisive break of 1.4880 resistance will indicate that such correction from 1.6587 is completed and turn near term outlook bullish for 1.5094 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a consolidative pattern. 50% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.6587 at 1.4095 was already met. While further fall cannot be ruled out, we'd expect strong support above 1.3671 to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.5094 will be the first sign of resumption of up trend from 1.1602 and target retesting 1.6587 resistance first.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.76; (P) 144.34; (R1) 145.01; More...

GBP/JPY failed to sustain above 4 hours 55 EMA and intraday bias is turned neutral again On the downside, break of 142.16 support should confirm short term topping and bring decline to 55 day EMA (now at 140.33) and below. Break of 148.42 will extend the larger rise from 122.36, Still, such rally is seen as a corrective move. Hence, we'd expect strong resistance from 150.43 long term fibonacci level to limit upside.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 195.86 top (2015 high) should have made a medium term bottom at 122.36 after hitting 100% projection of 195.86 to 154.70 from 163.87 at 122.71. Rise from there is now expected to develop into a medium term corrective pattern. Upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.4 for setting the medium term range.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box

Daily Pivots: (S1) 122.07; (P) 122.69; (R1) 123.14; More...

EUR/JPY is staying in range below 124.08 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Consolidation could extend but overall, further rally is in favor as long as 120.90 support holds. Above 124.08 will target 126.09 key resistance next. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, we'd be cautious on topping around 126.09. Meanwhile, break of 120.90 will indicate short term topping and turn bias to the downside for 55 days EMA (now at 119.98).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 109.20 medium term bottom are seen as correcting whole down trend from 149.76 to 109.20. There is prospect of another rise towards 126.09 key resistance level before completion. But even in that case, we'd expect strong resistance between 126.09 and 141.04 to limit upside, at least on first attempt.

Subscribe to our daily and mid-day newsletter to get this report delivered to your mail box