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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9835; (P) 0.9910; (R1) 0.9959; More...

A short term top is in place at 1.0063 on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias in USD/CHF is now mildly on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 0.9193 to 1.0063 at 0.9731. For now, risk will stay mildly on the downside as long as 1.0063 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.0342 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 0.8756 (2021 low) already. Rise from 0.8756 is likely a medium term up trend of its own. Next target is 161.8% projection of 0.8756 to 0.9471 from 0.9149 at 1.0306, which is close to 1.0342 (2016 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 0.9459 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.65; (P) 128.60; (R1) 129.18; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and corrective pattern could extend further. Break of break of 127.51 will target 125.09 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 114.40 to 131.34 at 124.86). On the upside, firm break of 131.34 will resume larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Sustained trading above 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04 will pave the way to 100% projection at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6919; (P) 0.6983; (R1) 0.7016; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 0.7045 will resume the rebound from 0.6828 to 0.7265 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 0.6828 will resume larger fall from 0.8006, and target 0.6756/60 medium term fibonacci level next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Deeper fall should be seen to 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. This coincides with 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7105 from 0.7660 at 0.6760. Strong support is expected from 0.6756/60 cluster to contain downside to complete the correction. However, sustained break of 0.6756/60 would argue that AUD/USD is indeed already in a medium term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2827; (P) 1.2862; (R1) 1.2927; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. Overall, further rally is in favor with 1.2712 support intact. On the upside, break of 1.3075 will resume the rise from 1.2401. Sustained trading above 1.3022 fibonacci level will carry larger bullish implications. Next target will be 100% projection of 1.2005 to 1.2947 from 1.2401 at 1.3343. On the downside, however, break of 1.2712 support will indicate rejection by 1.3022 key fibonacci resistance, and bring deeper decline back to 1.2401 support.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.96; (P) 159.37; (R1) 160.68; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral at this point. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 162.16 minor resistance holds, as correction from 168.40 could extend. On the downside, below 155.57 will target 150.95 key structural support next. Nevertheless, firm break of 162.16 will indicate that the correction has completed, and bring retest of 168.40 high next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93 will be a long term bullish signal, and could pave the way back to 195.86 high. This will now remain the favored case as long as 150.95 support holds, even in case of deep pull back. However, firm break of 150.95 will indicate rejection by 167.93, and bearish trend reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 133.30; (P) 134.99; (R1) 135.89; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays neutral for the moment. Corrective fall from 139.99 could still extend lower. Below 132.63 will target 61.8% retracement of 124.37 to 139.99 at 130.33. Nevertheless, break of 138.33 will indicate that the correction has completed, and bring retest of 139.99 high next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. Such rise is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 109.30 (2016 low). Next target will be 100% projection of 114.42 to 134.11 from 124.37 at 144.06. In any case, outlook will now remain bullish as long as 124.37 support holds, in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8445; (P) 0.8469; (R1) 0.8505; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays neutral for the moment. Also, with 0.8365 support intact, further rise is still in favor. On the upside, break of 0.8617 will resume rise from 0.8201 medium term bottom to 0.8697 medium term fibonacci level. However, break of 0.8365 will dampen this bullish view, and turn bias back to the downside instead.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom could be in place at 0.8201, on bullish convergence condition in daily and weekly MACD. Rise from there could either be a correction to the down trend from 0.9499 (2020 high), or a medium term up trend itself. In either case, further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.9499 to 0.8201 at 0.8697. Sustained break there will target 61.8% retracement at 0.9003.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4997; (P) 1.5027; (R1) 1.5081; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is turned neutral with current recovery, but risk stays on the downside with 1.5227 resistance intact. Corrective rebound from 1.4318 could have completed with three waves up to 1.5277 already. Below 1.4885 will target 1.4597 support first. Break there will bring retest of 1.4318 low next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5354 support turned resistance holds, larger down trend form 1.9799 (2020 high) is still expected to continue. On resumption, next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). However, firm break of 1.5354 will indicate medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally back to 1.6434 key resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0283; (P) 1.0389; (R1) 1.0446; More....

EUR/CHF's break of 1.0360 minor support argues that rebound from 0.9970 has completed as a three-wave corrective move at 1.0513. That came after rejection by 100% projection of 0.9970 to 1.0086 from 1.0400 at 1.0516 and 1.0505. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.0186 support first. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.0513 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0505 support turned resistance (2020 low) holds, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is expected to continue. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9650. However, firm break of 1.0505 will suggest medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound towards 1.1149 structural resistance.

Markets are back in risk-off mode as down dropped more than -1100 pts overnight. Dollar and Yen tried to rebound but there was no follow through buying. Indeed, both remain the worst performing ones for the week. Instead, safe-haven flow seems to be benefiting Swiss Franc more this time. Franc is also helped by buying against Euro and Sterling. Aussie is firm despite weaker than expected job data.

Technically, EUR/CHF's break of 1.0360 support is the first sign that whole corrective rebound from 09970 has completed. Deeper fall is now in favor to retest this low, with prospect of resuming medium term down trend. At the same time, GBP/CHF's consolidation from 1.2112 might also be finished after rejection by trend line resistance. Next focus will be 1.2075 support. Firm break there will also resume the down trend from 1.3070. Such developments are worth monitoring for the next few days.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -1.74%. Hong Kong HSI is down -2.48%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.09%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.36%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.0031 at 0.243. Overnight, DOW dropped -3.57%. S&P 500 dropped -4.04%. NASDAQ dropped -4.73%. 10-year yield 0.082 to 2.886, after rejection by 3%.

Fed Harker: The economy can withstand a measured, methodical approach to tightening

Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said yesterday, "I anticipate a sequence of increases in the funds rate at a measured pace until we are confident that inflation is moving toward the Committee's inflation target."

"I still am in the camp that we can have, if not a soft landing, a safe landing," he said. He expected the economy to grow between 2% and 3% this year, adding that "this economy can withstand a measured, methodical approach to tightening financial conditions."

Japan exports rose 12.5% yoy in Apr, imports rose 28.2% yoy

Japan exports rose 12.5% yoy to JPY 8076B in April. Imports rose 28.2% yoy to JPY 8915B, a new record. Trade deficit came in at JPY 839B.

Trade with China shrank notably. China-bound shipments fell -5.9% yoy, the biggest drop since March 2020.  Imports from China also fell -5.5% yoy, the most since September 2020. On the other hand, exports to the US jumped 17.8% yoy while imports rose 15.3% yoy.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports rose 1.0% mom to JPY 7629B. Imports rose 7.9% mom to JPY 9248B. Trade deficit came in at JPY -1619B, larger than expectation of JPY -1520T.

Australia employment rose just 4k in Apr, unemployment at record 3.9%

Australia employment rose just 4k in April, missing expectation of 30k growth. Full time jobs rose 92.4k while part0time jobs dropped -88.4k.

Unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.9%, matched expectations. Participation rate dropped -0.1% to 66.3%. Monthly hours worked rose 23m hours, or 1.3% mom.

Bjorn Jarvis, head of labour statistics at the ABS, said, "3.9 per cent is the lowest the unemployment rate has been in the monthly survey. The last time the unemployment rate was lower than this was in August 1974, when the survey was quarterly."

Looking ahead

Eurozone current account and ECB minutes will be released in European session. Later in the day, Canada will publish new housing price index, RMPI and IPPI. US will release Philly Fed survey and existing home sales.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0283; (P) 1.0389; (R1) 1.0446; More....

EUR/CHF's break of 1.0360 minor support argues that rebound from 0.9970 has completed as a three-wave corrective move at 1.0513. That came after rejection by 100% projection of 0.9970 to 1.0086 from 1.0400 at 1.0516 and 1.0505. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.0186 support first. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.0513 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0505 support turned resistance (2020 low) holds, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is expected to continue. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9650. However, firm break of 1.0505 will suggest medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound towards 1.1149 structural resistance.

Economic Indicators Update