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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0354; (P) 1.0403; (R1) 1.0472; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the upside at this point. Current rise from 0.9970 should target 100% projection of 0.9970 to 1.0086 from 1.0400 at 1.0516 next. On the downside, below 1.0331 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But further rally will remain mildly in favor as long as 1.0186 support holds.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0505 support turned resistance (2020 low) holds, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is expected to continue. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9650. However, firm break of 1.0505 will suggest medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound towards 1.1149 structural resistance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0487; (P) 1.0543 (R1) 1.0603; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as range trading continues. In case of another recovery, upside should be limited by 1.0756 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, firm break of 1.0470 will resume larger down trend to 161.8% projection of 1.1494 to 1.0805 from 1.1184 at 1.0069.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.2348 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 1.1185 support turned resistance holds. The break of 1.0635 (2020 low) now raises the chance that it's resuming long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). Retest of 1.0339 (2017 low) low should be seen next. Decisive break there will confirm this bearish case.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2285; (P) 1.2332; (R1) 1.2389; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside at this point. Firm break of 161.8% projection of 1.3641 to 1.2999 from 1.3297 at 1.2258 will extend recent down trend to 200% projection at 1.2013 next. On the upside, break of 1.2637 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, based on current momentum, fall from 1.4248 (2018 high) at least at the same degree as the rise form 1.1409 (2020 low). That is, fall from 1.4248 could be a leg inside the pattern from 1.1409, or resuming the longer term down trend. In either case, deeper decline is expected as long as 1.2999 support turned resistance holds. Next target is 1.1409 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9845; (P) 0.9869; (R1) 0.9909; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside for the moment. Current up trend should target 261.8% projection of 0.9149 to 0.9459 from 0.9193 at 1.0005 next. On the downside, break of 0.9708 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.0342 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 0.8756 (2021 low) already. Rise from 0.8756 is likely a medium term up trend of its own. Sustained trading above 100% projection of 0.8756 to 0.9471 from 0.9149 at 0.9864 will pave the way to 161.8% projection at 1.0306, which is close to 1.0342 (2016 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 0.9459 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.16; (P) 130.49; (R1) 130.87; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral for the moment. On the upside, firm break of 131.24 will resume recent up trend to 261.8% projection of 109.11 to 116.34 from 114.40 at 133.26. Meanwhile, outlook will remain bullish as long as 126.91 support holds, in case of another pull back.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend form 75.56 (2011 low). Sustained trading above 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04 will pave the way to 100% projection at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 121.27 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2843; (P) 1.2880; (R1) 1.2945; More...

USD/CAD's rally resumes by breaking through 1.2913 resistance. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.3022 fibonacci level next. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. For now, outlook will remain cautiously bullish as long as 1.2712 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7043; (P) 0.7090; (R1) 0.7120; More...

AUD/USD's fall from 0.7660 resumed by breaking through 0.7029 temporary low. Intraday bias is back on the downside. As noted before, such decline is seen as the third third leg of the corrective pattern from 0.8006. Firm break of 0.6955 low will confirm this bearish case and target 0.6756 medium term fibonacci level next. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7265 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Fall from 0.7660 should be the third leg of this pattern. Break of 0.6966 will target 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. On the upside, break of 0.7660 will revive that case that the correction has already completed at 0.6966.

Markets open the week with risk-off sentiment, in particular in Japan. Australian and New Zealand Dollar are trading broadly lower as a result. On the other hand, Dollar is rising broadly. European majors are mixed together with Yen and Canadian.

Technically, however, bother EUR/USD and USD/JPY are still bounded in established range even though Dollar is attempting to rise across the board. Attention will stay on 1.0470 support in EUR/USD and 131.24 resistance in USD/JPY. Break of these level will help confirm the underlying momentum in Dollar.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -2.40%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.20%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.17%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0053 at 0.251. Hong Kong is on holiday.

ECB Rehn wants first hike in July, rate at zero in Autumn

ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn said, "We are seeing signs of second-round effects. It's important that we send a signal that these higher inflation expectations we are currently witnessing will not become entrenched."

It's "reasonable that we will rather sooner, in my view in July, start raising rates in line with our normalization of monetary policy. And would expect that when autumn comes, we would be at zero," he said.

Rehn also noted that the Ukraine war is hampering Eurozone's economic recovery from the pandemic. "We are seeing some stagflation tendencies," Rehn said. The Governing Council should ensure that monetary decisions don't derail economic growth, but at the same time avoid inflation becoming entrenched, Rehn said.

Bitcoin to break through 33k low, ethereum to follow

Bitcoin is extending last week's decline and it's now close to making a new low for the year. The move is part of the broad based risk-off selling, which sees Nikkei down over -2.2% in Asia.

Immediate focus is now on 33000 low in bitcoin. Firm break there will resume whole down trend from 68986. In this case, there might be further downside acceleration through 30k handle to 61.8% projection of 68986 to 33000 from 48226 at 25986. Nevertheless, break of 36118 resistance will be a sign of stabilization and bring recovery first.

Ethereum also follows by breaking 2390 support today. The development should confirm that corrective recovery from 2157 has completed with three waves up to 3577. Deeper fall should be seen through 2157 to 38.2% projection of 4863 to 2157 from 3577 at 1904.

US CPI and UK GDP to highlight the week

Expectations on Fed's tightening path will be remain a major driving force in all financial markets. That would very much depend on inflation development in the US. Thus, this week's CPI release, and PPI too, would be important food of thoughts for FOMC members. BoE has clearly indicated the risk of stagflation and MPC members will pay close attention to UK GDP data. Elsewhere, Eurozone Sentix and Germany ZEW; Australia NAB business confidence, and BoJ summary of opinions will also be watched.

Here are some highlights for the week:

• Monday: Japan cash earnings, BoJ minutes; China trade balance; France trade balance; Eurozone Sentix investor confidence; Canada building permits.
• Tuesday: Japan household spending; Australia NAB business confidence; Italy industrial production; Germany ZEW economic sentiment.
• Wednesday: Australia Westpac consumer sentiment; China CPI, PPI; Japan leading indicators; Germany CPI final; US CPI.
• Thursday: BoJ summery of opinions, Japan bank lending, current account; New Zealand inflation expectations; UK GDP, productions, trade balance; Swiss PPI; US PPI, jobless claims.
• Friday: Japan M2; Eurozone industrial production; US import prices, U of Michigan consumer sentiment.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7043; (P) 0.7090; (R1) 0.7120; More...

AUD/USD's fall from 0.7660 resumed by breaking through 0.7029 temporary low. Intraday bias is back on the downside. As noted before, such decline is seen as the third third leg of the corrective pattern from 0.8006. Firm break of 0.6955 low will confirm this bearish case and target 0.6756 medium term fibonacci level next. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7265 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8006 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5506 (2020 low). Fall from 0.7660 should be the third leg of this pattern. Break of 0.6966 will target 50% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6756. On the upside, break of 0.7660 will revive that case that the correction has already completed at 0.6966.

Economic Indicators Update

Bitcoin is extending last week's decline and it's now close to making a new low for the year. The move is part of the broad based risk-off selling, which sees Nikkei down over -2.2% in Asia.

Immediate focus is now on 33000 low in bitcoin. Firm break there will resume whole down trend from 68986. In this case, there might be further downside acceleration through 30k handle to 61.8% projection of 68986 to 33000 from 48226 at 25986. Nevertheless, break of 36118 resistance will be a sign of stabilization and bring recovery first.

Ethereum also follows by breaking 2390 support today. The development should confirm that corrective recovery from 2157 has completed with three waves up to 3577. Deeper fall should be seen through 2157 to 38.2% projection of 4863 to 2157 from 3577 at 1904.

ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn said, "We are seeing signs of second-round effects. It's important that we send a signal that these higher inflation expectations we are currently witnessing will not become entrenched."

It's "reasonable that we will rather sooner, in my view in July, start raising rates in line with our normalization of monetary policy. And would expect that when autumn comes, we would be at zero," he said.

Rehn also noted that the Ukraine war is hampering Eurozone's economic recovery from the pandemic. "We are seeing some stagflation tendencies," Rehn said. The Governing Council should ensure that monetary decisions don't derail economic growth, but at the same time avoid inflation becoming entrenched, Rehn said.