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USD/CHF was still bounded in range trading last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, break of 0.9098 will target 0.9017 support first. Further break there will likely resume the decline from 0.9471 through 0.8925 low. On the upside, break of 0.9241 resistance should resume the rise from 0.8925 through 0.927.

In the bigger picture, USD/CHF is still struggling around 55 week EMA (now at 0.9176) and outlook is mixed for now. Confirmed rejection by the 55 week EMA will retain medium term bearishness. That is, larger fall from 1.0342 would resume through 0.8756 low at a later stage. However, sustained trading above 55 week EMA will tilt favor to the case of bullish reversal. Focus would then be turned to 0.9471 resistance for confirmation.

In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are currently seen as developing into a long term corrective pattern, at least until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.

AUD/USD's rise from 0.7105 accelerated to as high as 0.7477 last week. The break of 0.7425 resistance suggests that whole correction from 0.8006 has completed at 0.7105 already, just above 0.6991/7051 support zone. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 0.7530 support turned resistance first. Sustained break there will bring retest of 0.8006 high. On the downside, break of 0.7354 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first.

In the bigger picture, with 0.6991 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051) intact, we're seeing price action form 0.8006 as a correction only. That is, up trend from 0.5506 low would resume after the correction completes. In that case, main focus will be 0.8135 key resistance (2018 high). Sustained break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole medium term trend has indeed reversed.

In the longer term picture, focus remains is back on 0.8135 structural resistance. Decisive break there will argue that rise from 0.5506 is developing into a long term up trend that reverses whole down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). In that case, further rally would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.5506 at 0.8950 and possibly above.

USD/CAD's decline from 1.2947 resumed last week and hit as low as 1.2492. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 1.2421 support. Sustained break there will argue that whole rise from 1.2005 has completed at 1.2947 already. Near term outlook will be turned back for 1.2301 support first. On the upside, however, break of 1.2701 minor resistance will retain near term bullishness, and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.2947 high.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). It should have completed after hitting 1.2061 (2017 low) and 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 to 1.2005 at 1.3022 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3650 and above. Overall, medium term outlook remains neutral at worst with 1.2048/61 support zone intact.

In the longer term picture, we're viewing price actions from 1.4689 as a consolidation pattern. Thus, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2061 support holds, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048. However, rejection by 55 month EMA, follow by firm break of 1.2061 support, will argue that USD/CAD has already started a long term down trend.

GBP/JPY's rise from 149.16 continued last week and initial bias stays on the upside this week for 153.42 resistance first. Decisive break there will argue that whole corrective pattern from 156.05 has completed, and bring retest of this high. On the downside, however, break of 151.32 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 149.16 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 123.94 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 122.75 (2016 low). As long as 149.03 support holds, such rise would still resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 149.03 support will indicate rejection by 156.59. Fall from 156.05 would be at least correcting the whole rise from 123.94. Deeper fall would be seen back 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 156.05 at 143.78 first.

In the longer term picture, the strong break of 55 months EMA was an early sign of long term bullish reversal. Firm break of 156.69 resistance should now confirm the start of an up trend for 195.86 (2015 high). However, rejection by 156.69 will invalidate the bullish signal and keep long term outlook neutral first.

EUR/JPY rose further to as high as 130.73 last week, but formed a temporary top there a retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. Breach of 130.54 resistance argues that corrective fall from 134.11 has completed at 127.91 already. Hence, further rise is now in favor as long as 129.14 support holds. Break of 130.73 will resume the rebound from 127.91 to 132.68 resistance next. However, break of 129.14 will dampen this bullish view and bring retest of 127.91 low instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 114.42 is seen as a medium term rising leg inside a long term sideway pattern. As long as 127.07 resistance turned support holds, further rise is still expected to retest 137.49 (2018 high). However, firm break of 127.07 will argue that the medium term trend has reversed, deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 114.42 to 134.11 at 121.94.

In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Another rising leg in progress for 137.49 resistance and above.

EUR/GBP edged higher to 0.8601 last week but quickly lost momentum again. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Another rise is in favor as long as 0.8541 support holds. On the upside, above 0.8601 will resume the rebound from 0.8558 to 0.8668 resistance. Firm break there will be a strong sign of near term bullish reversal at least. On the downside, however, break of 0.8541 support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.8448 low instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9499 (2020 high) are still seen as developing into a corrective pattern. Deeper fall could be seen as long as 0.8668 resistance holds, towards long term support at 0.8276. However, firm break of 0.8668 resistance would argue that a medium term bottom was already formed. Stronger rise would be seen to 0.8861 support turned resistance to confirm completion of the corrective pattern.

In the long term picture, outlook will stay bullish as long as 0.8276 support holds. Break of 0.9499 is in favor at a later stage, to resume the up trend from 0.6935 (2015 low).

EUR/AUD's decline from 1.6434 short term top extended lower last week. Initial bias stays on the downside this week with focus on 1.5898 support. Sustained break there will indicate that corrective rise from 1.5250 has already completed. Near term outlook will be turned bearish for retesting 1.5250 low. On the upside, break of 1.6116 resistance will revive near term bullishness and bring retest of 1.6434 high instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.5250 medium term bottom is currently seen as a correction to the down trend from 1.9799 first. Stronger rise could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988 next. We'd tentatively expect strong resistance from there to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Meanwhile, break of 1.5898 support will indicate that the rebound has completed. Larger down trend from 1.9799 might be ready to resume through 1.5250 low.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.1602 (2012 low) should have already completed with three waves up to 1.9799 (2020 high). Fall from there is seen as a medium term to long term down leg as a long term down trend, or a sideway pattern. We'll assess the odds again at a later stage.

EUR/CHF's rebound from 1.0694 short term bottom continued last week. The break of 1.0839 resistance argues that fall from 1.1149 might be completed already. Further rise is expected this week as long as 1.0780 support holds, for 1.0985 resistance next. However, on the downside, break of 1.0780 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 1.0694 low instead.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 1.0505 (2020 low) should have completed at 1.1149 already. The three-wave corrective structure argues that the downtrend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is not over yet. Medium term outlook will now stay bearish as long as 55 week EMA (now at 1.0859) holds. Break of 1.0505 low would be seen at a later stage. However, sustained trading above 55 week EMA will bring retest of 1.1149 high instead.

In the long term picture, rejection by 55 month EMA (now at 1.1056) retains long term bearishness. Break of 1.0505 low will resume down trend to 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 1.0223.

Dollar was under pressure most of the week and selling accelerated again after the big disappointment in employment data. The non-farm payroll report could show that job market recovery had made a "substantial setback" rather than "substantial further progress". A tapering announcement from Fed in September is basically off the table. Overall development in US stocks were mixed with NASDAQ and S&P 500 making new record highs but DOW was stuck in range. 10-year yield also struggled in range but managed to close firmly above 1.3 handle.

Swiss France, Yen and Dollar were the worst performing ones for the week, on underlying risk-on sentiment. New Zealand and Australian Dollars were the winners. Overall development suggests that Dollar's near term weakness is here to stay. But Dollar index will need to break through 91.78 key support level to solidify bearishness. That would correspond to firm break of 1.19 handle in EUR/USD. At the same time, Gold will also need to break through 1832 resistance to double confirm Dollar selling. As for going long against the greenback, Aussie could be a candidate as it continued to strengthen upside moment. But that would also be subject to reaction to RBA policy decision ahead.

Dollar index eyes 91.78 key support to decide medium term bearishness

Dollar index tumbled sharply last week, following broad based selloff in Dollar. 93.72 is confirmed to be a short term top, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. The main question is whether price actions from 89.20 are merely a three-wave consolidation that has completed at 93.72, after failing 38.2% retracement of 102.99 to 89.20 at 94.46.

Focus is now immediately on 91.78 support for the near term. Sustained break there will affirm this medium term bearish case and target a test on 89.20/53 support zone next. Also, if that happens, it's likely that whole down trend from 102.99 (2020 high) is ready to resume through 89.20, and possibly through 88.25 (2018 low) too.

Gold to target 1916 after clearing 1832 resistance firmly

Gold's rise from 1682.60 resumed last week and it's now pressing 1832.47 resistance. Reactions to this level in the next few days is important in determining the medium term outlook. Sustained break of 1832.47 should at least confirm that fall form 1916.30 has completed at 1682.60 already.

More importantly, such development would also argue that whole consolidation pattern from 2074.84 has finished, after drawing support from 38.2% retracement of 1046.27 to 2074.84 at 1681.92 twice. Gold should then at least have a test on 1916.30. Firm break there will pave the way to retest 2074.84. If that happens it would double confirm Dollar index's downside breakout mentioned above.

Silver also followed Gold higher last week and immediate focus is on 55 day EMA (now at 24.80). Sustained trading above there will raise the chance that corrective pattern from 30.07 has completed with three waves down to 22.36. Further rise should then be see back to 25.99 resistance next. Firm break there would likely clear the way for a retest on 28.73/30.07 resistance zone.

Aussie strengthening upside momentum, a look at AUD/JPY, EUR/AUD and EUR/CAD

We've mentioned that Aussie could be turning around last week, and it did make some progress in strengthening upside momentum. AUD/USD's break of 0.7425 resistance was a bullish sign, arguing that correction from 0.8006 has completed. AUD/JPY's break of 81.56 resistance last week also argues that correction from 85.78 has completed at 77.88. Near term outlook will now be mildly bullish as long as 80.08 minor support holds. Rise from 77.88 should target a test on 85.78 high.

Nevertheless, Aussie's fate would still very much depend on the reaction to RBA this week. In particular, EUR/AUD is now pressing 1.5898 support. Sustained break there will indicate that corrective rise from 1.5250 has already completed. Near term outlook will be turned bearish for retesting 1.5250 low.

AUD/CAD's strong break of 55 day EMA also raised the chance that decline from 0.9991 has finished at 0.9106 on bullish divergence condition in daily MACD. Further rise is now in favor to key near term resistance at 0.9417. Decisive break there will affirm this bullish case, and pave the way back to 0.9757/9991 resistance zone.

Firm break of the levels mentioned in EUR/AUD and AUD/CAD would give us more confidence that Aussie's rally is there to stay into Q4.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD's rebound from 1.1663 extended higher last week. Initial bias remains on the upside this week with focus on 1.1907 resistance. Decisive break there will indicate that fall from 1.2265, as well as the consolidation pattern from 1.2348, have completed. Near term outlook will be turned bullish for 1.2265/2348 resistance zone. However, on the downside, rejection by 1.1907 followed by break of 1.1792 support will dampen the bullish case, and turn bias back to the downside for 1.1663 support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0635 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low). Further rally remains in favors long as 1.1602 support holds, to cluster resistance at 1.2555 next, (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). However sustained break of 1.1602 will argue that the rise from 1.0635 is over, and turn medium term outlook bearish again. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 and below.

In the long term picture, focus remains on 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516). Sustained break there should confirm long term bullish reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3862 and above. However, rejection by 1.2555 will keep long term outlook neutral first, and raise the prospect of down trend resumption at a later stage.

Monday, Sep 6, 2021

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Tuesday, Sep 7, 2021

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Wednesday, Sep 8, 2021

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Thursday, Sep 9, 2021

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Friday, Sep 10, 2021

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