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The major European currencies held their ground near key levels on Thursday. Following Jerome Powell’s dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium, the US dollar first fell sharply, then corrected higher on Monday, only to weaken again by midweek. Market reaction, however, remains uncertain: investors have yet to form a consensus on whether the dollar’s decline marks the continuation of a downtrend or if the current consolidation will develop into a new upward impulse for the greenback. Against this backdrop, the EUR/USD and USD/CHF pairs have once again tested important levels but managed to rebound, maintaining a balance between supply and demand.

Market participants are now focused on the upcoming data releases from Europe and the United States. In the euro area, figures on consumer and business sentiment, inflation expectations, and business climate indices are due, which could adjust short-term forecasts for the euro. In the US, attention will centre on labour market and price dynamics – jobless claims, the GDP deflator, and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index will be key indicators for assessing the Federal Reserve’s future policy trajectory. These publications could determine whether EUR/USD and USD/CHF remain within their current ranges or if the market is preparing for new impulses.

EUR/USD

Yesterday, sellers of the single European currency attempted to break key support at 1.1600. The price set a new August low, but the breakout proved false, and the pair returned to 1.1640. Technical analysis of EUR/USD indicates sideways trading between 1.1580 and 1.1740. A significant fundamental driver would be required to push the pair beyond this range.

Factors that could influence the EUR/USD movement include:

• Today at 12:00 (GMT+3): Eurozone consumer and business confidence report
• Today at 14:30 (GMT+3): ECB monetary policy meeting minutes
• Tomorrow at 15:00 (GMT+3): Germany Consumer Price Index (CPI)

USD/CHF

The USD/CHF pair has been trading in a narrow range between 0.8000 and 0.8150 for several weeks. Following the Fed Chair’s dovish remarks, the price tested the lower boundary of this range, but no renewed downward momentum has been observed so far. Should positive US news emerge, the upper boundary of the sideways corridor at 0.8150 may be tested. A break below 0.8000 could trigger a decline towards 0.7910–0.7940.

Factors that could influence the USD/CHF movement include:

• Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US GDP
• Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Initial Jobless Claims
• Tomorrow at 10:00 (GMT+3): Swiss KOF Leading Economic Indicator

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 198.60; (P) 198.90; (R1) 199.30; More...

No change in GBP/JPY's outlook as range trading continues. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. While another fall cannot be ruled out, near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 195.01 support holds. On the upside, firm break of 2002.6 will resume the whole rise from 184.35 to 100% projection of 180.00 to 199.79 from 184.35 at 204.14.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 (2024 high) are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). The pattern might still extend with another falling leg. But in that case, strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. Meanwhile, decisive break of 208.09 will confirm long term up trend resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 171.24; (P) 171.58; (R1) 171.89; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 170.94 support will bring deeper fall to 169.69, or further to 38.2% retracement of 161.06 to 173.87 at 168.97. On the upside, above 172.99 will bring retest of 173.87 short term top.

In the bigger picture, considering current strong momentum as seen in the rally from 154.77, corrective pattern from 175.41 could have already completed. Decisive break of 154.77 will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next target is 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. However, rejection by 175.41, followed by firm break of 55 D EMA (now at 170.34) will delay this bullish case.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8605; (P) 0.8627; (R1) 0.8645; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 0.8354 to 0.8752 at 0.8600 will indicate near term bearish reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.8506. On the upside, above 0.8670 will resume the rebound from 0.8595 to retest 0.8752 high.

In the bigger picture, the structure from 0.8221 medium term bottom are not impulsive enough to suggest that it's reversing the down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high). But even if it's a correction, further rise is expected to 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8508) holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7850; (P) 1.7904; (R1) 1.7943; More...

EUR/AUD's fall from 1.8155 short term top is in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 1.7245 to 1.8155 at 1.7807. Sustained break there should confirm that whole rise from 1.7245 has completed. Corrective pattern from 1.8554 should then be in its third leg. Further decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.7593. On the upside, above 1.7979 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Such pattern could extend further with another falling leg. But even in that case, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 (2022 low) to 1.8554 at 1.6922 to bring rebound. Uptrend from 1.4281 is expected to resume at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9308; (P) 0.9347; (R1) 0.9376; More....

Fall from 0.9452 continues today and intraday bias stays on the downside. Corrective rebound from 0.9218 should have completed with three waves up to 0.9452. Break of 0.9265 support will confirm and bring retest of 0.9218 low. On the upside, above 0.9363 minor resistance will mix up the outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.9204 (2018 high) might still be in progress considering that EUR/CHF is staying well inside the long term falling channel. However, with bullish convergence condition in W MACD, downside potential should be limited in case of another fall. Instead, firm break of 0.9660 resistance will be an important sign of medium term bullish trend reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3765; (P) 1.3811; (R1) 1.3840; More...

USD/CAD's pullback from 1.3923 extended lower, but it stays well above 1.3720 support so far. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.3923 will extend the corrective rebound from 1.3538. But upside should be limited by 1.4014 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3538 at 1.4017). Meanwhile, firm break of 1.3720 will argue that the corrective bounce has already completed, and bring retest of 1.3538 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4014 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3069.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6475; (P) 0.6494; (R1) 0.6525; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. Corrective pattern from 0.6624 could still extend further. On the upside, firm break of 0.6567 will argue that the correction has completed and bring retest of 0.6624 high. However, break of 0.6413 will extend the correction lower towards 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6624 at 0.6352.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. While stronger rally cannot be ruled out, outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, even in case of another fall through 0.5913, downside should be contained above 0.5506 (2020 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1591; (P) 1.1621; (R1) 1.1668; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral at this point. For now, further rise is in favor as long as 1.1573 support holds. Break of 1.1741 will resume the rally from 1.1390 to retest 1.1829 high. Firm break there will extend larger up trend. However, decisive break of 1.1573 will extend the corrective pattern from 1.1829 with another downleg, and target 1.1390.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.1604 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3443; (P) 1.3473; (R1) 1.3528; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral and further rise is mildly in favor as long as 1.3389 support holds. Above 1.3594 will resume the rebound from 1.3140 to retest 1.3787 high. On the downside, however, break of 1.3389 support will extend the corrective pattern from 1.3787 with another fall, and target 1.3140 support.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is in progress. Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 from 1.2099 at 1.4004. Outlook will now stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.3073) holds, even in case of deep pullback.