Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7064; (P) 0.7086; (R1) 0.7110; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 0.7060 temporary low. More consolidation could be see, but risk will remain on the downside as long as 0.7295 resistance holds. For now, we’re favoring the case that rebound from 0.6722 has completed at 0.7295 already. On the downside, firm break of 0.7076 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.6722 to 0.7295 at 0.7076) should confirm this bearish case and target 61.8% retracement at 0.6941 next.

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In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we’d treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.


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