AUD/USD rose further to 0.6569 last week but reversed from there. The development suggests short term topping at 0.6569, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, ahead of 0.6670 key resistance. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for 0.6235 support. Break should indicate completion of whole rise from 0.5506 and target 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.6569 at 0.6163. On the upside, break of 0.6569 will extend the rebound to 0.6670 key resistance.
In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in favor to extend. 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, however, sustained break of 0.6607 will suggest medium term bottoming and turn focus to 0.7031 resistance next.
In the longer term picture, down trend from 1.1079 (2011) is still in progress. It’s a bit early to just the depth of the down trend. But sustained break of 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 could pave the way to 100% projection at 0.3882.
