Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7817; (P) 0.7839; (R1) 0.7878; More…

AUD/USD dipped to as low as 0.7798 but quickly drew support from 0.7807 key support level and recovered. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, firm break of 0.7807 will indicate near term reversal. Outlook will then be turned bearish for 55 week EMA (now at 0.7670) first. Meanwhile, rebound from 0.7807 will retain bullishness. Above 0.7938 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 0.8124 high.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is still in progress. At this point, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we’ll continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, break of 55 month EMA (now at 0.8090) will target 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451. Break of 0.7807 support is needed to to be the first sign of completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise is now in favor.

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