AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7666; (P) 0.7707; (R1) 0.7733; More…

AUD/USD’s sharp decline and break of 0.7662 minor support argues that rebound from 0.7490 might be completed. Intraday bias is back to the downside for retesting 0.7490 support first. Break will confirm completion of whole rise from 0.7158. Above 0.7748 will resume such rally. But at this point, we’d expect upside to be limited by 0.7849/50 cluster resistance to limit upside and bring reversal. That level represents 61.8% projection of 0.7158 to 0.7740 from 0.7490 at 0.7850 and key long term retracement level at 0.7849.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seek to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8169) and above.

AUD/USD 4 Hours Chart

AUD/USD Daily Chart

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