AUD/USD’s edged lower to 0.6977 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.7076 support turned resistance holds. Below 0.6977 will resume the decline from 0.7277 towards 0.6832 support. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.7076 will argue that fall from 0.7277 might have completed, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.
In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top could be formed at 0.7277 after failing to sustain above 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 (2021 high) to 0.5913 (2024 low) at 0.7206). Deeper fall could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 5913 to 0.7277 at 0.6756 as a correction. But strong support should be seen there to bring rebound. Consolidations would continue below 0.7277 for a while.
In the long term picture, rise from 0.5913 is seen as the third leg of the whole pattern from 0.5506 (2020 low). It’s still early to judge if this is an impulsive or corrective pattern. But in either case, further rise should be seen back to 0.8006 and possibly above. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6782) holds.
