EURAUD stayed in consolidation above 1.6161 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week and further fall is expected with 1.6598 resistance intact. On the downside, below 1.6161 will target a test on 1.5996/6002 key support zone.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5996 support holds, up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is still expected to resume through 1.7180 at a later stage. However decisive break of 1.5996 will argue that the medium term trend might have reversed. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 (2022 low) to 1.7180 at 1.5388, even as a correction.
In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6032) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will open up the bearish case for extending the decline through 1.4281 low.
