EUR/AUD rebounded after retreating to 1.7626 last week but failed to break through 1.7880 resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Overall development suggests that fall from 1.8554 has completed as a corrective move at 1.7245. On the upside, break of 1.7880 will resume the rise from there to 61.8% retracement of 1.8554 to 1.7245 at 1.8054. Firm break there will pave the way to 1.8554. However, break of 1.7626 will dampen this bullish case and turn focus back to 1.7459 support.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term are currently seen as a corrective pattern. While deeper pullback might be seen, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 (2022 low) to 1.8554 at 1.6922 to bring rebound. Up trend from 1.4281 is expected to resume at a later stage.
In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6303) holds, this second leg could still extend higher.
