EUR/AUD’s rebound from 1.7671 extended higher last week. The late breach of 1.7972 resistance added to the case that correction from 1.8094 has already completed with three waves down to 1.7671. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for 1.8094 first. Firm break there will resume the rally from 1.7245 to 61.8% projection of 1.7245 to 1.8094 from 1.7671 at 1.8196. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.7830 support holds.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Such pattern could extend further with another falling leg. But even in that case, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 (2022 low) to 1.8554 at 1.6922 to bring rebound. Uptrend from 1.4281 is expected to resume at a later stage.
In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6414) holds, this second leg could still extend higher.
