EUR/AUD’s extended decline last week dampened the original bullish view, and suggests that corrective pattern from 1.8554 is extending with a thirds. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Firm break of 1.7569 support will solidify this case and target 1.7254 support next. For now, risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.7813 minor resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.7399) will suggest that it’s correcting the whole rally from 1.4281 (2022 low). In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.6922. Nevertheless, strong rebound form 55 W EMA will likely bring resumption of the up trend sooner.
In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6501) holds, this second leg could still extend higher.
