EUR/AUD dropped to as low as 1.3997 last week and the break of 1.4025 support indicates down trend resumption. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 1.3671 key support level next. As the larger decline from 1.6587 is seen as a corrective move, we’d expect downside to be contained by 1.3671 to bring reversal. On the downside, break of 1.4289 resistance will confirm short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 1.4721 resistance.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a consolidative pattern. 50% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.6587 at 1.4095 was already met. While further fall cannot be ruled out, we’d expect strong support above 1.3671 to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.4721 resistance will indicate completion of such correction and outlook bullish for retesting 1.6587 high.
In the longer term picture, the rise from 1.1602 long term bottom isn’t over yet. We’ll keep monitoring the development but there is prospect of extending the rise to 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 to 1.1602 at 1.7488 and above. However, break of 1.3671 should confirm trend reversal and target 1.1602 long term bottom again.