EUR/CHF’s recovery from 0.9306 extended higher last week, but upside was limited below 0.9428 resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 0.9428/45 resistance zone will resume the rebound from 0.9218. On the downside, break of 0.9291 will bring retest of 0.9218 low instead.
In the bigger picture, prior rejection by long-term falling channel resistance (now at 0.9511) retains medium term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.9204 (2024 low) will confirm resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.9660 resistance holds.
In the long term picture, overall long term down trend is still in force in EUR/CHF. Outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as 55 M EMA (now at 0.9901) holds.
