EUR/JPY’s rise from 123.65 accelerated to as high as 126.76 last week and the development confirmed completion of correction from 127.50 at 123.65. Initial bias stays on the upside for retesting 127.50. Decisive break there will resume whole rise from 118.62 for medium term channel resistance at 129.15 next. On the downside, break of 125.61 resistance turned support will need to indicate completion of the rise. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain cautiously bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation of completion of the down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) yet. In case of an extension, break of 118.62 will target 109.03/114.84 long term support zone. However, break of 127.50 will solidify the case of medium term bullish reversal. Further decisive break medium term channel resistance will affirm reversal and target 133.12 key resistance and above.

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In the long term picture, EUR/JPY is staying in long term sideway pattern, established since 2000. Fall from 137.49 is seen as a falling leg inside the pattern. Break of 118.62 will extend this falling leg through 109.03 low. On the upside, break of 133.12 resistance bring retest of 149.76 (2014 high).


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